Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1069436677981122560

Seriously Georgia Democrats?! WTF!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Link to the AP results page? NYTimes/other results maps?

NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/04/us/elections/results-georgia-secretary-of-state-runoff.html

[Rookie Yinzer]

Looks like Rockdale initial EV is 55-45 Barrow: time to call it.

Never really thought he was going to win, how did Abrams do in comparison?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Well, so much for the Dem hack talking points that all runoffs wouldn't be the same as 2008 because "Dems are more energized now."

If Abrams had made it to a runoff, I suspect we would have been seeing a very different turnout right now.

Agreed. This isn't proof of anything, it's a downballot race with someone who has no meaningful traction with the Metro ATL base. It would have been high turnout with her on the ballot.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Looks like Rockdale initial EV is 55-45 Barrow: time to call it.

Never really thought he was going to win, how did Abrams do in comparison?

I'm on mobile right now but in terms of EV, I expect she cleared 70. TBF, the southeast metro (as I mentioned yesterday) is probably ground zero for the worst underperformance given how young and brown the Dem electorate is there.

Yep. Brad won Newton EV 51-49. It's over

[Rookie Yinzer]

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

No. Abrams turned out a lot of low propensity, unreliable voters who were enchanted with her message. They stayed home/didn't know there was a runoff/didn't care there was a runoff. This is just what happens when your base are people with a history of disenfranchisement and disillusionment from politics and politicians. They aren't going to just show up for anybody.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Landslide Lyndon continuing to lob out insults. And for the 1,000th time, I am not a woman!

You've literally said to me verbatim that you were a woman of color....... I can't.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

No. Abrams turned out a lot of low propensity, unreliable voters who were enchanted with her message. They stayed home/didn't know there was a runoff/didn't care there was a runoff. This is just what happens when your base are people with a history of disenfranchisement and disillusionment from politics and politicians. They aren't going to just show up for anybody.

the base still showed up for a corrupt black man in MS who was also just as moderate as Barrow.

MS Democrats are not liberals, and a high profile Senate race is not comparable to a race for a down ballot office that nobody cared about until a few weeks ago.

Anyway, Barrow looks like he is going to lose Henry, Newton, Gwinnett, and Cobb. Tuning out of the results. On to 2020...

[Rookie Yinzer]

It’s really the suburbs/exurbs where Barrow is underperforming badly. Cobb and Gwinnett in particular, but also Henry, Newton, Douglas, Forsyth, etc.

The low propensity people of color that Abrams excited stayed home. Under-served communities are not going to turn out for "some dude" because he says he's better than the other guy. We've heard/seen it all before. People will call them morons and idiots who have no right to complain but that's their experience. But they won't get endless articles and diner interviews written about why they stayed home.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Barrow ended up winning Henry County... guess the remaining votes there were in the Dem strongholds. He only won it by 7 in comparison to Abrams' 15.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Still, Barrow's south Atlanta performance was quite poor, especially in the overall vote (example, Clayton gave over 80000 votes in November to the Democrats, down to 25000 tonight; Henry from 56000 to 18000).  It would have been even closer if there was a better turnout in these sizable counties.

It's the suburbanization of poverty. These counties are getting bluer because more low income African-Americans are being priced out of Atlanta and DeKalb County not because of college educated white liberals moving there or former Republicans jumping ship. The low turnout is not surprising. Abrams spent months (years in some cases) cultivating relationships with this cohort, many of whom have to jump through obstacles to cast their ballot. I resent people insinuating the drop off was because of "lazy asses". The dynamics of this race was much different from the general: fewer early voting dates, early voting places in "white" areas, simply not finding the time to take off to go vote for someone who has never been in their community. Voters are not dogs. They don't just go vote because you bark at them.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Nobody cares that Barrow is a Demosaur. He lost because the DPG’s canvass operation crumbled to nothing after Abrams suspended her campaign and Barrow had no credibility/name ID in the Metro to pick up Abrams’s momentum. The race had no star power and the low propensity voters Abrams inspired didn’t know Barrow from a hole in the wall and went about their day.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think that Georgia is still out of reach for Democrats in 2020.

2022 and 2024...maybe.

Kind of why I want Abrams to go for a Governor rematch instead of a Senate run. Georgia’s inelasticity makes it easier for her to weather a Democratic midterm if it comes to that (Carter did respectful for someone running in the Deep South while Obama was Prez). I’d rather Teresa Tomlinson or Scott Holcomb take the gamble in 2020. If they kick Perdue out, great, if they don’t, eh. Abrams has to be very careful about her next move. Another statewide loss will hamper her political ambitions.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think that Georgia is still out of reach for Democrats in 2020.

2022 and 2024...maybe.

Kind of why I want Abrams to go for a Governor rematch instead of a Senate run. Georgia’s inelasticity makes it easier for her to weather a Democratic midterm if it comes to that (Carter did respectful for someone running in the Deep South while Obama was Prez). I’d rather Teresa Tomlinson or Scott Holcomb take the gamble in 2020. If they kick Perdue out, great, if they don’t, eh. Abrams has to be very careful about her next move. Another statewide loss will hamper her political ambitions.

I sort of feel like her actions post election haven't put her in a good light.

Really? Maybe to people that already hated her, I live in deep Abrams country and the consensus is that Kemp cheated. LOL. I don’t think anyone that voted for her is going to vote against her in two or four years. We’ll see.

[Rookie Yinzer]

You guys act like:

1. People will care about this in two years(or 4) time

2. That people cared about this to begin with

It would be one thing if she was in court challenging the results, but she acknowledged he will be our legal Governor and has wished him well. She owes him nothing more. Honestly the support for her in Metro Atlanta and other deep blue bastions will grow more fervent as she continues to position herself as a Voting Rights martyr. Watch the 2020 Senate candidate cling close to her.

[Rookie Yinzer]

You guys act like:

1. People will care about this in two years(or 4) time

2. That people cared about this to begin with

It would be one thing if she was in court challenging the results, but she acknowledged he will be our legal Governor and has wished him well. She owes him nothing more. Honestly the support for her in Metro Atlanta and other deep blue bastions will grow more fervent as she continues to position herself as a Voting Rights martyr. Watch the 2020 Senate candidate cling close to her.

such a voting rights martyr she wasted 2 weeks not conceding instead of helping Barrow the dem nominee for SOS.  Its clear if she actually told people in Atlanta there was a runoff Barrow could have won.

Damn- y’all realize John Barrow was the candidate right? The fact of the matter is, what Abrams gave him (her endorsement in her last speech, tweets, and her face on mailers) is probably all John Barrow wanted. He completely avoided Abrams during the duration of the campaign, only appearing with her ONCE publicly (at the state Democratic convention in August). During her bus tour, ALL of the down ballot candidates popped up at various bus stops EXCEPT John Barrow. His goal was always to be carried by Abrams’s strong margins out of Metro ATL and the cities, and not get massacred in East Georgia. He has never used the forceful language on voting rights like Abrams has so why would he make the campaign all about her in the final stretch? It would have been completely antithetical to the race he has ran for the past 18 months. Quite frankly, Abrams’s performance in November helped pull him into the runoff. He was more than capable of closing the deal himself.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Post-election analysis from TargetSmart:

https://medium.com/@tombonier/targetsmart-analysis-shows-a-younger-and-more-diverse-georgia-electorate-fb38bdb6224e

Theorizes if white share of electorate falls the same level it did 2014->2016->2018 and Dems maintain same levels of support from young and non-white voters, Abrams would defeat Kemp in a rematch.

https://twitter.com/gwlauren/status/1071134413902266369

This article states that the Abrams campaign believe they got 1/3 of the white vote in Cobb and Gwinnett, quadrupled Hispanic and Asian turnout in Gwinnett vs 2014, and doubled black turnout in Henry vs 2014.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/inside-stacey-abrams-42m-campaign-for-governor/PSPSAJkP0AdziwqWvL3m5O/?ecmp=pg&utm_medium=social&utm_source=pg_fb

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams on Samantha Bee’s show the other day:

https://youtu.be/zQ_newQ5exo

She is definitely running against Kemp in a rematch.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Ossoff is considering a Senate bid.

N O

Why not? Genuinely asking. I probably won’t for him in a primary.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Griff, do you have enough info to make a map of the Democratic white vote in each county for 2018?

[Rookie Yinzer]

To be fair, Beto lost by 2 in a D+9 year in a R+11 state. He didn't over perform at all. Abrams lost by 1 in a D+9 year in a R+7 state. She underperformed slightly. When you add in that they were both running against polarizing opponents, it looks even worse.

Just because it was D+9 nationally doesn’t make it the case in individual states. Abrams lost by 1 with an electorate that had Trump with a +7 approval. She did not underperform at all.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Walton County goes from last place in 2014 to “zooming” ahead of like 50+ counties OMG!

At least she’s digging Dems out of holes in populous suburbs/exurbs like Fayette, Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall, Cobb, and Gwinnett. Hopefully they continue to trend Dem.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Did we have numbers for voter turnout by race and gender? And do we have anything from 2014 to compare it to? Wondering if there was any significant uptick in black women vs other demographics.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Did we have numbers for voter turnout by race and gender? And do we have anything from 2014 to compare it to? Wondering if there was any significant uptick in black women vs other demographics.

Do you mean turnout as a % of registered voters? That info should be available via SoS; I'll check. It's possible black female turnout increased, but in all honesty, it's been the highest turnout group by race and gender (in presidential elections, anyway) for some time. Such a comparison (2014-2018) may prove to be unhelpful if not adjusted given the huge difference in overall turnout between the two cycles.

Yes. I thought I read an AJC analysis after the last Prez election that black women fell behind white men and white women in 2016, or maybe that was nationally and not in Georgia. A comparison to 2016 would probably be better all things considered.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Thanks.

And wow is right re: black male turnout compared to Asian and Hispanic females. I hope the campaign Abrams ran inspires these voters to remain civically engaged the way Obama’s candidacy did for black voters here.