This is how I imagine a Rubio victory:
New Hampshire and Virginia are the only ones he would have flipped. I think stuff like the Access Hollywood tape cost Trump NH. Rubio clearly would have been disciplined enough to win there. Virginia would have been the tipping point state with a thin MOV for Rubio. A lot of the NOVA transients are Lean D but I think he could have done exceedingly well to overcome this. Since NOVA is usually the last part of the state to dump votes this (and Pennsylvania) keeps America up all night.
Colorado and Nevada would have been possible but I don't think he would have flipped it.
Hillary got the margins she needed in Philadelphia. Rubio would have undoubtedly did better than Trump in the suburbs but I don't think Hillary would have bled as much support as she did in Western PA, Luzerne, and Lackawanna with Rubio as her opponent. She wins PA by the same margin Trump did.
Hillary would have still had depressed turnout in Milwaukee and Detroit, but Rubio would not have mobilized the rural whites here like Trump did. Obama fatigue, Clinton scandals, and the state's shift to the right still keeps it too close for comfort. She wins Wisconsin by less than 1 percent and Michigan by 1.5.
