Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

There's a special election for Senate District 17 on Tuesday. The incumbent resigned to run for Lt. Governor. He won 60-40 in 2016, while Trump won 57-41. I live like 5 minutes outside the district so can't vote in it.

ETA: The Democrat, Phyllis Hatcher is the only D running, while there are three Republicans. I hope they cannibalize the vote enough to get her to 50 percent +1.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Lean D. The only reason Isaakson won that district in 2016 was because Barksdale was unknown and the Democrats put no effort into his campaign.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia dem underperformance better have been because of the game yesterday

Goodness that turnout was awful. Shameful that 4,000 measly votes decide the representative for more than 100,000 people.

I expected Ed Toney to have a little more traction than he did, and more turnout for Hatcher voters. Geesh!

[Rookie Yinzer]

After a lot of thinking and despite my previous criticisms, I have decided to rescind my support of Stacey Evans, and am now backing Stacey Abrams to become the Democratic nominee for Governor. Not that my endorsement will make or break either candidate just wanted to give some warning before you start seeing pro-Abrams posts from me.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I want to start by saying that there a lot of flaws that I acknowledge Abrams has, but what I can say is that she is committed to winning this race. I have mentioned in this thread that I was working with the Evans campaign. I have met her, her family, and have had conversations with her. There’s nothing that I can say about her personally or even on policy that is negative. However, her campaign is just uninspiring. I just have to be honest in that I feel like they are spending their time trying to rack up endorsements to legitimize her campaign and wrangle donors rather than reaching out to voters. Yes, she does meet and greets at local Democratic Party meetings, but there’s just been no progression, no substantial policy proposals, no concerted effort to reach out to voters directly before the primary season gets going. Like I said, she’s a fine woman and candidate but I had to question myself about exactly why I was working on this campaign.

Team Abrams has reached out to me personally as a voter, at least twice. If I wasn’t already inside the Evans campaign, I don’t think I would have even been contacted at this point. She is offering a different approach to winning statewide elections in Georgia, and while I have pointed out many things that may be less than flattering for her image like her tenuous relationship with her House caucus or public feuds with Brian Kemp and Michael Williams, I believe she has a team ready to mobilize and finally initiate the shift of Georgia from red to purple.

She has hired a political director who has two sons that are entrenched in the Latino media market in Atlanta, and are ready to dispatch hundreds of volunteers to register a record number of Latino voters, specifically in DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties. She has been reaching out physically to the rural blacks in South Georgia which make up nearly 35 percent of the population down there, that have NEVER been courted by either political party EVER. I see her having a massive ground game in Georgia’s population centers with huge margins coming out of the five major Metro Areas plus Athens. Her team is literally gearing up for the fight of their life, while Evans is raising money hoping to win the race by running television ads in black areas and still chasing after the mythical pragmatic rural white voter. It’s not happening. The only demographic I give Evans an edge with is white women, they are both going to get BTFO with white males, what Abrams has in her pocket is what I believe to be an unprecedented amount of civic participation by black Georgians.

I will staunchly support whoever the nominee is, but at this point I can not in good conscience put Stacey Evans up as the nominee.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I hope the Republican run-off ends up being Cagle and Williams. Cagle has been the primary target of Williams, who is trying so hard to come across as a baby Trump. Cagle posted photos of Williams in Alabama regalia before the game Monday, and Williams posted a video calling him “Campaign Casey” lol. Cagle is the definition of a “swamp creature” though. He’s been in the Lt. Governor’s office for 12 years, and now he is running to do what exactly? He’ll win the nomination because the “elites” want him to but I hope he comes out of the primary bruised and rural whites stay home.  

Kemp—� just drop out. No one cares.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Man whoever the D is in 2020 is gonna have a field day running against Perdue.

Carter, Reed, and Yates are all solid choices.

Teresa Tomlinson, mayor of Columbus is going to run. I wonder how much of an uphill battle she would have with donors and low name ID against Carter or Yates. Reed is less establishment and prone to controversy.

Man whoever the D is in 2020 is gonna have a field day running against Perdue.

Perdue strikes me as such a weak incumbent. He has a long history of saying and doing things that are just attack ad bait. Combined with the strong Democratic bench in the state, I'm hoping that I can help vote in a Democratic Georgia Senator come 2020.

I can't help but remember him saying something to the effect that Obama's days were numbered and his children would be vagabonds. He tried and failed to clean that up obviously. He's a real jerk and a Trump stooge.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams announced a new campaign office in Savannah at the end of the month, with more offices planned to open in Cobb County, Rome, Sumter County, Hinesville, Stockbridge, Augusta, Columbus, and Albany.

She needs an office in Macon and Athens!

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics-blog/georgia-2018-abrams-kicks-her-ground-game/1EpNI8EgxAgBa8Im5pnGUM/

[Rookie Yinzer]

Former Atlanta Mayoral candidate Vincent Fort is eyeing a run for Lt. Governor.

He was endorsed by Bernie Sanders/Our Revolution during the Mayor's Race.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics-blog/vincent-fort-eyes-bid-for-georgia-lieutenant-governor/sksX13gyHAbdIpq7ZApLcO/

Also would like to add, he's not exactly a fan of Stacey Abrams.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Evans got a little criticism for a "tone deaf" ad she released that showed her at the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church celebration on MLK Day:

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Evans campaign stated that this was a ploy by Abrams to distort the meaning of the video:

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http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics-blog/georgia-2018-evans-faces-criticism-for-tone-deaf-mlk-video/MweviuJ4gC9P1k9Wtih5bP/

Ebenezer Baptist Church asked her to take it down:

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https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics-blog/mlk-church-georgia-gov-candidate-wasn-authorized-film-building/zMxV3SvcrPqtZ1AUXPkOIO/

Here's the ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7J-hMWnYbZM&feature=youtu.be

I'm not really sure why they blamed the Abrams campaign

[Rookie Yinzer]

She is definitely not exiting this race. There was just a reception for her last night at the residence of Governor Barnes. He is not throwing his weight behind someone only for them to drop out.

Abrams is going to have to fight for the nomination. There are a lot of Democrats who just DO NOT like her and would rather chew glass than have her be the standard-bearer of the party.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Vincent Fort was at the reception for Evans that I mentioned a few posts up. Since Evans is dead set on wrangling up Trump voters, Fort would be a good candidate to rally votes in the black Democratic base of Atlanta, DeKalb County, and the other major cities.

My ideal Lt. Governor candidate if Abrams won the nomination would be a charismatic, popular white male legislator from Southwest Georgia. If one exists, I hope he throws his hat in the race soon. There are a lot of Democratic votes out there and that's probably the most fertile area for persuading white rural votes in the entire state.

Someone also needs to jump into the AG Race on the D side bc that is a wide open race that is very winnable.

Seriously! We should be leaving no race uncontested. Teresa Tomlinson would probably do it if she weren't prepping a 2020 Senate run. I think she should go ahead and just wait until 2022 so she can be recognizable statewide.

Do you think the race between Abrams and Evans will be close enough that write-in votes will send it to a run-off?

I don't think so. Both of these women are capable, and I haven't seen much of anyone saying they were disillusioned by both choices. They pretty much are avatars for the two Democratic identities in the state.

In my opinion, it will either be a convincing Abrams win (7-10 point lead) or a bare Evans win (1-3 points). I am ready to see these fundraising numbers so we can see what Evans has in her arsenal. She has a name recognition gap to make up for and FAST.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Can we crossover in the run off? I want Cagle's character to be damaged with the "Trump-ey voters" but I want him to be the nominee.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams raised $1.7 million since the last fundraising disclosure. Can't wait to see how much she has on hand, and what percentage are Georgia donors in comparison to Evans.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-2018-abrams-raises-nearly-more-gov-run/GvtLR3bHWQvzHwNGvaX3pN/

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don’t see how Kemp gets passed wiping an election server and the state not defending him in court.

I agree.

I wonder if he cares to explain how paper ballots are a conspiracy by liberal socialist hacks to tear down Georgia's institutions but he voted for paper receipts in 2004 when Cathy Cox was SoS?

Abrams vs. Kemp would be pretty epic. I can already imagine the anti-Abrams propaganda that will be polluting my television screen.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Clay Tippins will launch television ads during the Super Bowl in Albany, Columbus, and Macon media markets. Ads will begin airing in Atlanta market on Monday.

It will feature a Casey Cagle look-a-like in a tuxedo, to take a shot at his past as a tuxedo store owner.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/clay-tippins-makes-super-bowl-sized-splash-georgia-gov-race/0mneWKEAk17CCOXqjKvzNL/

[Rookie Yinzer]

Here's the ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEKcd4-UIHE&pbjreload=10

[Rookie Yinzer]

A memo from Abrams’ campaign manager to top supporters leaked and revealed some of her playbook.

Some quick points from the memo include:
-Abrams campaign plans to portray Evans as someone who has abandoned core Democratic values and will highlight her B+ rating from the NRA and her vote to put the Opportunity Schools referendum on the ballot in November 2016.
-They give out warning that Vincent Fort will jump in the Lieutenant Governor’s Race and will be used as an attack dog to go after Abrams and portray her as a radical, corrupt Atlanta politician.
-They project the primary electorate to be 65 percent black, with the plurality (45 percent) being black women.
-Their internal polling shows Abrams up among all demographic and geographic groups.
-She will report $450,000 cash on hand, she raised $300,000 in December and $500,000 in January.
-They have reached out to 600,000 voters and signed up 4,000 volunteers.

The full memorandum is here:
https://cmgpremajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/abrams-memo.pdf

Hunter Hill released an ad with Cagle and Kemp look-a-likes, he added in the obligatory swamp reference. The ad will be on all media markets by the end of the week.

https://youtu.be/hgwetVw7XOE

[Rookie Yinzer]

... the Bernie Sanders endorsed Vincent Fort is going to attack Stacey Abrams as a radical? lolk

Because politicians have never changed their spots for political gain?

And running for mayor of Atlanta is not the same as running statewide. He hates Abrams so it’s believable.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is the GA Dem primary electorate usually that black? 65% seems pretty high.

No! That point was perplexing to me as well. The 2016 Dem primary for president was only 51 percent black. The only state with a Democratic primary that black is Mississippi (even Alabama's was only 54 percent!).

I think 50-53 percent is more likely. Abrams' aggressive grassroots outreach to AA voters across all of the state and not just the Atlanta base may shift the make-up a bit, but not that dramatically.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Finally! 34 year old Fulton County Asst. District Attorney Charles Bailey is running for the AG Democratic nomination. He already has the backing of Jason Carter, Teresa Tomlinson, and Minority Leader Bob Trammell.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/carr-draws-democratic-challenger-georgia-race/9fuFPMqLauyxfwtpVhirML/

A couple of things he will be running on is pay raises for law enforcement officials, suing pharmaceutical companies that intentionally marketed drugs to foster the opioid crisis, and sue to protect Georgia's coast from Trump's offshore drilling plans.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Any news on Evans' fundraising?

Evans raised $800,000 from donations in comparison to Abrams raising $1.7 million, but Evans also gave herself a $1.25 million loan so she will be reporting raising $2.3 million.

Evans has $1.5 million cash on hand and nearly all of it will be able to be spent for the May primary.

Abrams has $450,000 cash on hand with only about $180,000 of it being set aside for the primary. She has gone through 80 percent of her funds to build a robust GOTV operation.

Looks like Evans is preparing an ad assault in the weeks leading up to the race, and Abrams will have to rely on the relationships she has built on the ground with grassroots activists.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-2018-evans-banks-with-help-from-personal-loan/BsogeScdcJI5RdbdzYPUrK/

[Rookie Yinzer]

John Barrow announced a slew of endorsements from folks like Jason Carter, David Scott, John Lewis, Sanford Bishop, Roy Barnes, Teresa Tomlinson, and many other former Democratic Representatives and Senators.

He also received a couple of endorsements from local Republican county commissioners and sheriffs from his old district.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/barrow-locks-support-from-big-name-dems-and-few-gopers/2Z4xhKTgIJCj3oAix5ZtPO/

[Rookie Yinzer]

I wish there was someone more credible in this race but looks like I’ll be voting for her, especially if Fort jumps in.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Are there any GA-07 residents around? Wanted to hear thoughts on the Democratic candidates for the seat. I have a job opportunity with one of the campaigns, but not aware of the mood in the district.