Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams rebuttal to Evans’ “attack” ad:

https://youtu.be/g9W7Lc3d5W0

I'm amazed to see this ad. Evans' whole campaign has been focused on HOPE - and Abrams is nibbling at the hook. It implies movement - and the desire to cut it off at the pass. Why else bother responding?

This is (relatively) bad news for Abrams, but we still have another 4-5 days of early voting to go. In the past (at least for GEs), I'm fairly certain there has been an uptick in Democratic ballots (which in GA, more often than not, is indicative of black voters) in the final days - so things may change - but I'd be surprised that if the 61% figure remains where it is or drops, that it'll rise once ED voting is counted.

Just as an example, the early voting in the 2014 GE looked really good at the end of the period, as something like 33-34% of voters were black. In the end, about half early voted and half voted on ED, and the total black share of the electorate was 29%. If the trend doesn't break substantially, we could be looking at a black electorate around 55% - which is lower than I expected even in a status quo primary and/or with that potential uptick in non-black voters I hypothesized.

Abrams campaign is clearly shook by this uptick in white Dem ballot pulling in North Atlanta suburbs. I'm sure these GOP-crossovers are voting Evans and the hypothetical boon in African-American turnout Abrams has banked on is falling flat relative to the primary electorate as a whole. They were floating a number like 65% of the Democratic primary being black. I am eagerly awaiting the results out of Cobb, Forsyth, Cherokee, and the like.

[Rookie Yinzer]

GOP Georgia governor candidate bringing 'Deportation Bus Tour' to state's sanctuary cities

I'm embarrassed to admit that this guy is my current State Senator.

YouTube has taken down this ad for violating their hate speech policy.

Good. The races these Republicans are running are so bitter, nasty, and hateful. I'm so sick of seeing that Cagle commercial that talks about MS-13. What's worse is that there are swaths of people who will eat that crap up. Even a GOP Secretary of State candidate had to slip some BS about illegal immigration into his commercial (but nothing about protecting the integrity of our vote )

[Rookie Yinzer]

Well looks like the Republicans were the ones waiting for additional early voting locations to open.

Has it been mentioned what the total number of ballots cast were during 2014 Primary early voting?

[Rookie Yinzer]

...and Bernie delivers the death blow to those trying to parrot the narrative that Abrams is a Republican behind closed doors. LOL.

I just got into an argument last night with a Bernie bro that swore Abrams was a corporate Democrat, and Evans was the real progressive. (But at the same time says Evans was more electable, and Abrams was too “far left”, so.... )

[Rookie Yinzer]

...and Bernie delivers the death blow to those trying to parrot the narrative that Abrams is a Republican behind closed doors. LOL.

I just got into an argument last night with a Bernie bro that swore Abrams was a corporate Democrat, and Evans was the real progressive. (But at the same time says Evans was more electable, and Abrams was too “far left”, so.... )

They both are basically the same amount of leftwing, lol. Their rhetoric is just different. And I guess Abrams prioritizes early education over college education, whereas Evans does the opposite. Otherwise, not much of a difference.

I agree. However, Evans has no choice but to split hairs at this point because it appears she’s far behind. On the debate she asked Abrams why she declined to endorse Keisha Bottoms for ATL Mayor. With that question, she got Abrams to admit that Bottoms is supporting Evans (weird why it isn’t public yet) and that she didn’t stand with progressives when they needed her. One of Evans’ people was on Twitter saying Abrams almost let a Republican become mayor of Atlanta because of her own ego. LOL.

She also grilled Abrams on cutting early voting and sponsoring a GOP gerrymandering effort.

Here’s the debate: https://youtu.be/V7Ix7iF1UEM

Abrams doesn't seem to be getting much establishment support despite recently being minority leader but based on the stuff RFKFan has posted here, Evans doesn't exactly seem like a great candidate either.

The word on the curb is that Abrams is abrasive and not personable at all. Even she admitted in a recent interview that she wished she had done more to build relationships at the Capitol. The only major endorsement she has from her colleagues is Carolyn Hugley, who people view as her water carrier, which is why she was passed over for the Minority Leader position despite being Abrams’ hand picked successor.

The black legislators backing Evans claim that Abrams threw the Democratic caucus under the bus, making deals that would pad her resume for future runs for office. There have also been accusations that she benefited monetarily from some program she sponsored with the GOP but I haven’t seen concrete proof and Abrams vehemently denies it.

Either way I’m still backing Abrams. Even the recent polling from SurveyUSA shows Abrams getting higher numbers with blacks, self-identified Democrats, and self-identified Liberals. If they’re not fired up we aren’t winning a damn thing here.

ETA: Evans releases final ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGDXPtPtVbE

Evans sends out internal polls to supporters, it has her behind Abrams 41-33, and her trouncing Abrams with white voters by 30 points. Obvious grain of salt needed.

https://cmgpremajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/evansinternal.pdf

FOX5/OpinionSavvy releases a poll, I rounded everything:

GOP:
Cagle- 31%
Kemp- 20%
Hill- 14%
Tippins- 12%
Williams- 5%

Democrats:
Abrams- 58%
Evans- 19%

http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/new-fox-5-poll-cagle-abrams-leading-in-georgia-primaries-for-governor

[Rookie Yinzer]

I realy wanted Teresa Tomlinson to run but you can't always get what you want so go Abrams!

She’s all but confirmed she is challenging David Perdue in 2020. Can’t wait to canvass for her!

[Rookie Yinzer]

GOP debate: https://youtu.be/RnqLKOdqYdI

Loved when Tippins said he got in the race because he saw a guy that's been in office 10 years willing to say anything to get elected, another guy in office 16 years and given away 7 million social security numbers, and another guy after 28 years is completely bought and paid for.

LOL at the accuracy.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Received two emails from each Stacey today.

Abrams is asking me to come volunteer to GOTV with locations in Albany, Atlanta, Augusta, Athens, Brunswick, Columbus, Decatur, Dublin, East Point, Fort Valley, Jonesboro, LaGrange, Lawrenceville, Macon, McDonough, Milledgeville, Norcross, Savannah, Statesboro, and Warner Robbins.

Evans is telling me the attacks against her are Republican smears because she's the better candidate and something something Abrams cut HOPE something.

Yeah, only one candidate is serious about turning Georgia blue.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

[Rookie Yinzer]

At this point I want Kemp to be the nominee. I believe he will activate the Dem base while also turning off enough GOPers that they’ll stay home, leave it blank, hold their nose for Abrams, etc.

A few of our seasoned Georgia posters have made mention that Kemp would not govern as far to the right as he pretends while Cagle who pretends to be the sensible adult in the room is really a hard-right ideologue. So if Kemp wins it won’t be that bad.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If you have a chance can you do Henry? That’s a swing County with quite a few contested D primaries in districts where the R incumbents have had token or no opposition.

And also Newton County because I live there.

Thanks for the info!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Henry County

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hillary Clinton endorses Stacey Abrams!

The former Secretary of State recorded a robo call for Leader Abrams going out today.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-2018-hillary-clinton-endorses-abrams-gov-race/ajWFeJd9MkA8e6aDNyFMSN/

Now I got into it with an Evans supporter who said Bernie’s endorsement was worthless because he got hammered in Georgia and now look

Come on President Obama!

[Rookie Yinzer]

I voted Abrams today because I think her strategy for November is much more likely to bear fruit than Evans'

[Rookie Yinzer]

Wow. Embarrassing showing for Evans. Wow.

[Rookie Yinzer]

White voters  love Abrams. She is not ignoring them. She is simply acknowledging that the black base is the heart and soul of the party.

That we are still pretending that she is unpalatable to white voters after her decisive victory in North Georgia and the North Atlanta suburbs is hilarious.

Evans had NO GROUND GAME. And spent the last few weeks of her campaign blanketing the airwaves with mistruths and slamming Abrams in her stump speeches. Just LOL at the notion continuing that Evans would be a better GE candidate. She would have motivated no one and done nothing to GOTV.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think Abrams talking about scrubbing Stone Mountain will hurt her more than gun control. I saw how Northam really retreaded from the confederate monuments issue during the campaign. She has many flaws, the debt she has being a glaring one, idk how voters will respond to a candidate running to manage the state budget being $200K in debt.

She literally said that once. Almost a year ago. You’re reaching.

And Nathan Deal was a million dollars in debt but OK. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think Abrams talking about scrubbing Stone Mountain will hurt her more than gun control. I saw how Northam really retreaded from the confederate monuments issue during the campaign. She has many flaws, the debt she has being a glaring one, idk how voters will respond to a candidate running to manage the state budget being $200K in debt.

She literally said that once. Almost a year ago. You’re reaching.

And Nathan Deal was a million dollars in debt but OK. LOL.

Said it once? That's all it takes, you know the GOP isn't going to let that go, they are going to remind every white voter that she is going to 'change our history/heritage blah blah bah'.

I highly doubt Revisionist Confederates were lining up behind Abrams either way. I’m going to let her continue running the campaign she wants. She’s already exceeded expectations once. Let’s keep it going into November.

[Rookie Yinzer]

LOL at Evans still managing to win Glascock County. That place has an extreme aversion to black candidates.

[Rookie Yinzer]

So is that 87% in Peach County, Abrams’ largest margin? She campaigned heavy down there. Using Fort Valley State to turn out the vote in that community.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If Abrams blowout wasn't good enough, Ken Hodges beat the Newt Gingrich backed Ken Shigley for the Court of Appeals!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Just looking at a few major counties alone, it looks like the non-black minority vote (Asians, Latinos, etc.) definitely chose Abrams over Evans, am I correct?

Yes. No way Evans won any of those with Abrams' crushing leads in Gwinnett (Asian, Latino), Forsyth (Asian), and Hall (Latino).

[Rookie Yinzer]

didnt cobb go blue by like 4 votes?

Nah. Cobb had about 250 more GOP votes in the gubernatorial primary, but Democrats won it on every other level

Paging RINO Tom

I thought the best Abrams could hope for was a 5-7 point loss in Cobb, but now I think it's toss-up with a slight tilt to Abrams. I can see her beating Kemp by 1-3 points there. Her canvass outreach will be unmatched.

[Rookie Yinzer]

hopefully she recognizes Dems should go after Rural GA as well, otherwise she'll probably just barely lose the GE.

She has recognized this. Rural Georgia does not equal white.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Edit:  I meant places in Northern GA like Whitfield, not just the Black Belt.

She has been there. Repeatedly. She was in Dahlonega and Fannin County speaking about gun control and brought a room full of old white people to their feet. You can't just make up your own facts about her campaign and who she is and isn't reaching out to just because of how you personally perceive the race from the outside.