Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yeah Abrams is the better candidate lol. I don't think she's a great candidate (she's relying too much on national politics I think), but she's our best shot. The republicans running for the nomination seem to be absolutely batsh!t.

She kind of needs the National Democratic infrastructure, the Democratic establishment in our state is backing Evans because they think Abrams can’t win. It is heartening to see that Abrams outraised Evans 2-to-1 and even her $325k total from Georgia residents outdid Evans’ entire haul.

I don’t mind the National Party swooping in with resources to get black rural voters to the polls. It’s more than what the state party has been doing.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Here's a stream of a debate Evans and Abrams had last night hosted by the Georgia Association of Black Women Attorneys.

https://gsu.hosted.panopto.com/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=063d33d6-793e-4c40-a9cc-a8b800dfca9d

[Rookie Yinzer]

I know some of us have treated John Barrow being the Dem nominee for Secretary of State as a foregone conclusion, and it very well may still happen but I met with another candidate running for the seat named Dee Dawkins-Haigler. I actually supported when she ran for my State Senate District, where she lost the Democratic Primary run-off by 8 (!) votes.

Anyway, she used to represent House District 91 in DeKalb and Rockdale counties. She was asked how she was going to beat Barrow, and she said even though he is a former federal politician, he doesn't have statewide recognition. She believes she has the base of support in the Metro Atlanta area that he doesn't, and she's been laser focused on building support here and in Southwest and Central Georgia (think Columbus, Macon, Albany, and the heavily African-American rural counties that surround it). She said voters in these areas have not been reached out to by him and she proclaims it's her race to lose. And she believes that in a battle where voters do not know who any of them are, they will chose her as the majority of the Democratic electorate will be women (plurality black women) and they tend to choose the woman candidate when they have no clue who any of the people are.

I was actually going to vote for her as a little nod to her because I know of her and like her, but she could actually win this thing, it is 2 weeks out from early voting, and I don't see why anyone would know who Barrow is and why he would run stronger statewide than his opponents.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Planned Parenthood endorsement is another blow to the narrative being covertly pushed that Evans is actually more progressive than Abrams. LOL.

Here is Leader Abrams’ first television ad!

https://youtu.be/0Ow36v0odkg

[Rookie Yinzer]

AJC did a poll of the Democratic Primary. Abrams is up 33-15 with 52 percent undecided.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-most-democrats-haven-decided-governor-race/uGd3sbhqNtjfGpwFYbtQEL/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=politics_fb

Article notes that Abrams’ team is adamant that their electoral strategy will be built around low propensity voters and that her supporters will not be as likely to be polled.

GOP Primary poll to come next week.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Emily's List and BlackPAC Georgia is up with a new statewide Abrams ad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDt4RUUZnQw

[Rookie Yinzer]

Cagle is doing stronger than I expected. Kemp's numbers are kinda pitiful IMO.

Abrams has five Get Out the Early Vote rallies planned for Monday! This is the final stretch! She will have a few black female celebrities joining her on the stump in the strategic locations of Albany, Columbus, Fort Valley, Albany, and Atlanta especially the first four where the D electorate will be overwhelmingly black women.

Democrats could still win this, but it is probably fair to call this a missed opportunity if Abrams only loses by 2-5 or something like that.

A missed opportunity for whom? D turnout will be up in November, but until older whites die off we are going to need hyper, almost supernatural African-American turnout to win here. Evans is not going to do that. Win or lose, Abrams is going to be the best shot in November. I will wait and see how she does with white voters before we call her or her strategy a total wash.

Also would like to add that Abrams has several different organizations pouring six figures into her campaign and into mobilizing voters. Gente 4 Abrams is mobilizing Latino voters in Metro Atlanta, the Working Families' Party is mobilizing rural black voters, and the National Domestic Workers Alliance is working to galvanize women of color. If Evans somehow won the nomination that would pour cold water on all that momentum.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Democrats could still win this, but it is probably fair to call this a missed opportunity if Abrams only loses by 2-5 or something like that.

A missed opportunity for whom? D turnout will be up in November, but until older whites die off we are going to need hyper, almost supernatural African-American turnout to win here. Evans is not going to do that. Win or lose, Abrams is going to be the best shot in November. I will wait and see how she does with white voters before we call her or her strategy a total wash.

Also would like to add that Abrams has several different organizations pouring six figures into her campaign and into mobilizing voters. Gente 4 Abrams is mobilizing Latino voters in Metro Atlanta, the Working Families' Party is mobilizing rural black voters, and the National Domestic Workers Alliance is working to galvanize women of color. If Evans somehow won the nomination that would pour cold water on all that momentum.

You can’t win just by maximizing black turnout. The math isn’t there. I literally wrote a 21 page research paper on the subject last year for a class. And that’s what Abrams’ entire campaign strategy is based around. You need Obama level turnout among voters PLUS at least 30 or 31% of white voters.

I was making the point that a painfully close Abrams loss will not prove that Evans or any other candidate considered "safer" would have won.

I believe there is a path for a D victory that include a myriad of factors going our way, hyper black turnout being one of them. Evans won't be the one to do it. Three weeks out from the vote she effectively has no statewide canvass apparatus while Abrams has one with other organizations strategically targeting specific groups in addition to hers. I've been canvassed and contacted multiple times by Abrams compared to 0 times from Evans. A white face and platitudes about hope and opportunity aren't going to move the needle either.

We saw the path in 2016 - Clinton levels in the Suburbs, Obama levels with AA voters. I have thought for a while that choosing Abrams guarantees the latter but probably loses most hope of the former, unless the eventual R candidate implodes there. Evans leaves both groups open, but probably will fall a tiny bit short in both. A damned if you do, damned if you don't situation one could say.

Why would Abrams not do well in the suburbs?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hillary won outright in Gwinnett County, white people are fleeing, and they had like five GOP retirements this cycle. It is the Democrat’s to lose.

I don’t think Evans or Abrams will win Cobb but it won’t be the double digit loss it has been in the past. I’m really going to be watching the margins in Cobb and Fulton to see if there is any meaningful defection from the Republican by white collar whites.

Working Families’ Party is also canvassing black voters in the South Metro area so I’m interested in if she can extend winning margins in Henry, and make inroads in Fayette.

Right now, I’m just hoping for high black and Latino turnout,white defection from the GOP in the North Atlanta suburbs, and depressed white rural turnout.

Here’s to a bitter GOP primary run-off, where Cagle wins 50.1-49.9 leaving many Republicans disillusioned and demoralized heading into the fall.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hillary won outright in Gwinnett County, white people are fleeing, and they had like five GOP retirements this cycle. It is the Democrat’s to lose.

I don’t think Evans or Abrams will win Cobb but it won’t be the double digit loss it has been in the past. I’m really going to be watching the margins in Cobb and Fulton to see if there is any meaningful defection from the Republican by white collar whites.

Working Families’ Party is also canvassing black voters in the South Metro area so I’m interested in if she can extend winning margins in Henry, and make inroads in Fayette.

Right now, I’m just hoping for high black and Latino turnout,white defection from the GOP in the North Atlanta suburbs, and depressed white rural turnout.

Here’s to a bitter GOP primary run-off, where Cagle wins 50.1-49.9 leaving many Republicans disillusioned and demoralized heading into the fall.

Nothing will get those “demoralized” Republicans fired up to vote like the chance to beat a black woman in an election.

I know. I’ve decided to think that they will think she has no shot in hell so they stay home regardless. We’ll see soon enough.

[Rookie Yinzer]

That was my point as well. Abrams’ entire campaign is based around identity politics and national support. Evans has been focused on more local issues. Neither candidate is good. Democrats really blew this race when candidates like Holcomb and Carter passed.

Abrams might fire *some* black people up with here “I’m a black woman” message. But it’ll cancelled out by the votes of still prejudiced white voters in rural GA and the sizable portion of black voters who also know that running a black candidate is a sure fire way to lose.

Abrams campaign is not based around identity politics. I've seen her on the stump multiple times and she has never brought up her race or gender. Expanding medicaid, affordable college, quality public education, rural employment, infrastructure investment, and a fair economy are not identity politics. What speech or ad has consisted of "I'm a black woman, hear me roar"?

And where was the identity politics in this speech, where she had a room full of working class white men giving her a standing ovation?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhCq8yCpjXw

And to the bolded: are you suggesting black voters will not vote because she's "sure to lose"? Sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy if I've ever saw one.

[Rookie Yinzer]

That was my point as well. Abrams’ entire campaign is based around identity politics and national support. Evans has been focused on more local issues. Neither candidate is good. Democrats really blew this race when candidates like Holcomb and Carter passed.

Abrams might fire *some* black people up with here “I’m a black woman” message. But it’ll cancelled out by the votes of still prejudiced white voters in rural GA and the sizable portion of black voters who also know that running a black candidate is a sure fire way to lose.

Abrams campaign is not based around identity politics. I've seen her on the stump multiple times and she has never brought up her race or gender. Expanding medicaid, affordable college, quality public education, rural employment, infrastructure investment, and a fair economy are not identity politics. What speech or ad has consisted of "I'm a black woman, hear me roar"?

And where was the identity politics in this speech, where she had a room full of working class white men giving her a standing ovation?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhCq8yCpjXw

And to the bolded: are you suggesting black voters will not vote because she's "sure to lose"? Sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy if I've ever saw one.

To be fair, I can understand how people come to the conclusion that Abrams is running an identity politics campaign based on how the horrible news media (besides myajc, which is excellent) covers the race. Every damn time I hear a national news outlet talk about this race it's about how Abrams is running as the first black woman and talking about some weird ass proxy race war between her and evans, when in reality, her message is so much more. The kind of sh** news coverage that just talks about Abrams's race is just a disservice to everyone. Also, unfortunately, some Abrams supporters do make the campaign about her race instead of her message. But Abrams herself has what I think is at least a fairly good message that talks about far more than "identity politics".

Fair assessment. I’ve seen all of the above. I guess because I’m especially tuned into her campaign I don’t see what others may see.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Jason Carter got 89% of black women and 90% of black men. I can easily see Abrams clearing 95 percent with black women. Abrams could probably bump up that black men number one or two points by turning out low propensity D-leaning men voting specifically for her.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Cast my vote for Leader Abrams this morning.

For those tuned into the Republican side, who would you prefer to come out of these run-off matchups?

Cagle v. Kemp
Cagle v. Tippins
Cagle v. Hill

And which one do you think would be the most vulnerable against the Democratic nominee?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Really great piece on the Democratic primary. Talks about a lot of the nuances in the race like Evans gaining the support of most of the black legislators in the state, Abrams' electability in the face of being unmarried and childless, who's really the insurgent candidate in the race, etc.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/stacey-abrams-vs-stacey-evans-georgia-governors-race.html

[Rookie Yinzer]

New Evans ad attacking Abrams on the HOPE fiasco. Looks targeted at undecided black and young voters.

https://youtu.be/3Q_YFwVNqqQ

ETA: Doesn't mean much, especially since we have open primaries but here's some early voting data for week one:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/republican-voters-outnumber-democrats-far-georgia-early-voting/fjTUBXtwjtizKMONu49VjI/

[Rookie Yinzer]

Evans’ latest attempts to wrangle up some black votes has been really cringe worthy (at least to me).



Then she had a press conference today with like a dozen black surrogates where they ragged on Abrams, with Vincent Fort being the loudest detractor. One of her surrogates (State Rep. Dar’shun Kendrick) was on social media saying Abrams had delusions of grandeur if she thought she was going to win with natural hair and being childless.  I wish Evans would have released some actually policy proposals leading up to this instead of waiting until the last two weeks to use black surrogates to assault Abrams’ character and splitting hairs about the HOPE Scholarship cuts that she praised when it happened.

I can only imagine what stunt she’ll pull at their last debate next Tuesday.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Evans was a defense lawyer for Bank of America/Countrywide when they were accused of predatory lending practices:



https://www.theroot.com/when-white-politicians-profit-off-black-pain-and-then-g-1825823106

Interesting for someone who has been working overtime and telling mistruths to characterize herself as the real progressive and the better choice for the African-American community.

ETA: Another awful Kemp ad where he brags about having a truck big enough to round up "illegals".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q1cfjh6VfE&feature=youtu.be

[Rookie Yinzer]

You won’t be able to do in-person Early Voting?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Isn’t the 7th CD less white than the 6th? I wonder if that could theoretically flip before the 6th. These Latino and Asian non-voters getting involved as well as Trump helping to accelerate civically engaged Asians’ shift to the Democratic Party could do it.

Rooting for Carolyn Bordeaux and Bobby Kaple in their respective primaries.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Not sure when the vote comes in for Georgia north of 285 but if Evans is not utterly obliterating Abrams there, then the race is an Abrams routing against Evans. I believe Georgia, south of Macon will be heavily for Abrams so Evans needs huge victories up north, and obviously to win some big Metro ATL counties (especially Cobb) outright.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I know there's probably an answer somewhere else on the thread, but I'll ask anyway.

I read a lot of the 'old democratic' machine in Georgia is supporting Stacey Evans- is there any reason why they favour her? Abrams seems like a much better candidate based on what I've seen of the two.

They don't see a path without converting Trump/GOP voters and Abrams has been very open about not courting them. She is also a black woman, and many of them do not believe she will win statewide. I was one of those people, but a series of events changed my perspective.

I do think it's telling that the vast majority of the Black Legislative Caucus did not endorse her, and in addition to that chose some guy whose name I can't even remember to be the Minority Leader instead of Abrams' chosen successor Minority Whip Carolyn Hugley. Some of her opposition from her former colleagues seems to be more personal instead of a "logical" rejection of her candidacy due to the uphill battle she'll face as a black woman.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I know there's probably an answer somewhere else on the thread, but I'll ask anyway.

I read a lot of the 'old democratic' machine in Georgia is supporting Stacey Evans- is there any reason why they favour her? Abrams seems like a much better candidate based on what I've seen of the two.

They don't see a path without converting Trump/GOP voters and Abrams has been very open about not courting them. She is also a black woman, and many of them do not believe she will win statewide. I was one of those people, but a series of events changed my perspective.

I do think it's telling that the vast majority of the Black Legislative Caucus did not endorse her, and in addition to that chose some guy whose name I can't even remember to be the Minority Leader instead of Abrams' chosen successor Minority Whip Carolyn Hugley. Some of her opposition from her former colleagues seems to be more personal than the uphill battle she'll face as a black woman.

I'm going to be honest - Stacey Abrams really rubs me the wrong way. Something about her is off. It's really weird to see so many people who worked with her endorsing Evans, and it always makes me suspicious when I see a politician getting more support nationally than locally.

She seems more organized and intelligent than Evans so I think she could be a better governor, but I don't know man. Something just seems off to me.

I kinda get her turning to the national Democratic apparatus, because the establishment here is very resistant to her candidacy. At least she can say she is (barely) still raising more in-state money than Evans, I guess...

I've had people that have had dealings with Abrams straight up tell me she's an.... in their words, an asshole. LOL. Apparently, she co-opted a program idea on Kinship Care (relatives and non-relatives taking care of children that are not their own) and forced the lady who brought her the idea out of it completely. Others have told me their encounters with her were off putting. I am still supporting her because her GOTV machine is much more robust and ready to go on May 23rd. She's a better messenger than Evans, and will probably get more done with the GOP, but I have no delusions about how Abrams may be behind closed doors.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I believe this week will be better for Dems, since the final week is when counties open up more EV locations. People are going to wait to vote when it’s convenient for them and traveling all the way to a central location in the county is not ideal for everyone.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams rebuttal to Evans’ “attack” ad:

https://youtu.be/g9W7Lc3d5W0