2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Wiz in Wis]

Q-Poll (From May 4 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,078 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. )

Generic Ballot:

Democrats - 54
Republicans - 38
Undecided - 8

Wow.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456

[Wiz in Wis]

Dems have a good candidate in IA-01 in Dubuque State Rep Abby Finkenauer:

https://www.facebook.com/Abby4Congress/

1st term legislator but fits the "Obama" mold pretty well in a district he carried by 13 points in 2012.

[Wiz in Wis]

Dems have a good candidate in IA-01 in Dubuque State Rep Abby Finkenauer:

https://www.facebook.com/Abby4Congress/

1st term legislator but fits the "Obama" mold pretty well in a district he carried by 13 points in 2012.

That's really great. IA-01 belongs with Dems not some loony Tea Partier. Hopefully Hillary's image hasn't permanently damaged the party's strength there.

TBF, Hillary only lost IA-01 by 4 points, so it's not exactly ruby red.

[Wiz in Wis]

Curiouser and Curiouser:

Ex-GOP Rep Richard Hanna considering running for Congress in NY22 - as an Independent. District currently held by GOPer Claudia Tenney. Apparently there is some bad blood between them, and this would certainly open up the district for a Dem pickup opportunity.

http://wibx950.com/richard-hanna-for-congress-again-former-representatives-candid-take-on-washington/

[Wiz in Wis]

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ahead-of-midterms-voters-prefer-democrats-even-as-republicans-appear-more-motivated-to-vote/2017/07/19/470441d6-6c01-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html

D 52%
R 38%

That is a particularly rich and diverse poll. Interestingly, these numbers are for preference for party control, rather than voting intention, and I'm curious how much one can stand in for the other.

They probably mirror one another closely, like favorability and job approval.

[Wiz in Wis]

So yeah Iowa doesn't like Trump or Blum right now https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/945913001#click=https://t.co/hDgAUI3iTg

I have always thought it very odd how all the supposed geniuses here have permanently written off Iowa. Iowa until 2016 voted Democrat for 32 years and always had a Democratic PVI. Iowa is prone to massive swings and 2016 could have been a massive fluke.

I would note that against the backdrop of a D+15 nationwide, D+6 does not really refute a long term trend towards the Republicans in the state. That means Republicans are collapsing in far more pronounced ways elsewhere.

Iowa also doesn't have an age gap, but does tend to swing massively, particular in reactions to situations like this. We are in an environment where Republicans are losing ground in states that are more diverse and compensating in states like this. That doesn't mean it will automatically vote Republican, but it is easier to convince a majority of Iowans to do so then it is to get a majority Coloradans or Nevadans. I call it the path of lesser resistance to 270. Resting on "32 years of history" (Until the 80's farm crisis, Iowa was solidly Republican, only going Dem in 1964), falls rather flat because it assumes constancy regarding who is voting in a giving state or in this case, other states when you consider PVI (which is a relative consideration by definition).

Put it like this, Trump and the Republicans are going to get devastated everywhere if these numbers don't change, but in the midwest the damage will be less permanent because of that very elasticity.

I agree with all of what you said, but given the PVI of King's IA-04 seat, D+6 statewide is probably enough to flip IA-01 and IA-03. IA-02 isn't as liberal as IA-04 is conservative.