Democratic Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[Wiz in Wis]

So I'll be attending the Utah Democratic caucus tonight. I plan to vote for Sanders, despite supporting Clinton in the overall primary. If I can do some sort of write-in, I might.

Wait... what?

[Wiz in Wis]

So I'll be attending the Utah Democratic caucus tonight. I plan to vote for Sanders, despite supporting Clinton in the overall primary. If I can do some sort of write-in, I might.

Wait... what?

I support Clinton overall in the primary, as I feel she's more electable. However, I support Sanders in my own state's primary/caucus, as I feel that Utah progressives should be heard, and we should be encouraged to be braver on the issues. However, I also am not a huge fan of Clinton or Sanders due to their many weaknesses, and if I can write-in a different Democrat to show my displeasure with the lack of options (for example Elizabeth Warren), I might. It looks like Sanders will win the caucus in any case.

Ah, ok... that makes more sense. Thanks!

[Wiz in Wis]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

No President in the US history has won without independents who are 35-40% of the total base. Obama won independents over Romney & Romney failed in that aspect which is he won. Obama was very strong with independents even in the Dem primary.

You know the truth if you have break up Dems will be 20-30%, GOP will be 30-35% & Indies maybe 30-40%. All hypothetically. If any GOP candidate with a unified GOP base does well with independents, Dems will be swept out & won't win.

Pray that Trump is the candidate as against a moderate GOP guy, Hillary has no chance!

You know the exit polls from 2012 still exist right?

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

Romney won "independents" 50-45 in 2012.

[Wiz in Wis]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

No President in the US history has won without independents who are 35-40% of the total base. Obama won independents over Romney & Romney failed in that aspect which is he won. Obama was very strong with independents even in the Dem primary.

You know the truth if you have break up Dems will be 20-30%, GOP will be 30-35% & Indies maybe 30-40%. All hypothetically. If any GOP candidate with a unified GOP base does well with independents, Dems will be swept out & won't win.

Pray that Trump is the candidate as against a moderate GOP guy, Hillary has no chance!

You know the exit polls from 2012 still exist right?

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

Romney won "independents" 50-45 in 2012.

50-45 is not much of a win? What was the sample size? There are response & sample biases in every survey & then you could argue if that sample represents the population.

50-45 over a small sample compared to the population means essentially shows no1 had a clear majority. Dems & GOP made 38% & 32% of the population meaning low turnout among the GOP & highly energized base of the Dem.

Either way independents barely had a role here (I didn't bother to check the facts but I know Obama had significant independent support).

Just to add BTW this is an exit poll - Exit poll which showed Sanders winning Mass by 5%, losing Okla by 10% & I could go on & on. They fail most of the times & vary. The data is not conclusive to prove Romney won independents.

National exit polls tend to have sample sizes of over 10,000 people. So... these are pretty reliable. Also, the final exit poll for Massachusetts (http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ma/Dem) show's Hillary with 50.25% of the vote. Pretty accurate if you ask me.

[Wiz in Wis]

Exit polls weren't trustworthy, they predicted a President Kerry with a landslide majority, and look how that turned out.

Somehow I doubt that your anecdotal memory is more accurate than CNN's archived exit polls, but that's besides the point. The point we're making is that having strength with independent primary voters is not critical to winning in the general.

I mean, Trump is cleaning up on the GOP side with independents... does that mean he's more electable than Kasich? Is anyone here going to make that claim?

[Wiz in Wis]

Exit polls weren't trustworthy, they predicted a President Kerry with a landslide majority, and look how that turned out.

Somehow I doubt that your anecdotal memory is more accurate than CNN's archived exit polls, but that's besides the point. The point we're making is that having strength with independent primary voters is not critical to winning in the general.

I mean, Trump is cleaning up on the GOP side with independents... does that mean he's more electable than Kasich? Is anyone here going to make that claim?

I was talking about the early exits, if you go back and watch election night footage from 2004 the early exits showed a good night for Kerry until the later ones come in.

Uh... why were you talking about the early exits? No one else was. Shadow's comments says all exit polls are crap. We said they weren't. Why bring up early exits?

[Wiz in Wis]

Independents will ultimately decide who wins the GE

Either way independents barely had a role

So Independents will decide the election in 2016, but had no role in 2012. Got it.

Thank you

[Wiz in Wis]

Sanders looks to have a solid next 3 weeks ...

Which will all be negated by NY on the 19th...

I know, but it will still be a nice 3 weeks ...

About the same time that Hillary had 8 years ago too. OH, RI, TX (primary), PA... I remember Hills winning all of those... Didn't affect the scoreboard, but it did give those white working class dead-enders a few more weeks of hope. Sadly, they will get Berned again.

Lol puns