Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Wiz in Wis]

Mississippi colleges are on Spring Break right now, a huge blow to Sanders, who was already barely going to get any votes.

Being expected to at least hit 40% according to most polling is an interesting defintion of "barely going to get any votes".

Mississippi!=Michigan. Read slower.

[Wiz in Wis]

Voter turnout is reportedly very low in downtown Detroit, which isn't great for Clinton. Likewise, turnout from MSU students is basically nonexistent.

Nobody lives in Downtown Detroit...

[Wiz in Wis]

20% of the electorate being African American is bad good for Clinton.  For reference, Virginia was at 26%.  Though to be fair Clinton also won Virginia whites by 15 points, so Michigan could very well be closer.

bad good?

[Wiz in Wis]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

[Wiz in Wis]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

Based on those exit polls, less liberal leans Sanders.

Interestingly, in TX, Continue Obama's policies was only 48%. Clinton still won 66%

[Wiz in Wis]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

Based on those exit polls, less liberal leans Sanders.

Interestingly, in TX, Continue Obama's policies was only 48%. Clinton still won 66%

TN - Continue Obama 58, Clinton Vote 66%. She's not doing worse so far as I can tell anywhere. Though in SC, Continue Obama was 72, as was her vote total.

[Wiz in Wis]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

Based on those exit polls, less liberal leans Sanders.

Interestingly, in TX, Continue Obama's policies was only 48%. Clinton still won 66%

At the moment, less liberal is twice that of MS. Makes me wonder if there's some kind of cross-party shenanigans going on?

Maybe... but also could just be that there is a more unanimous verdict in MS. less variation.

[Wiz in Wis]

IIRC the Obama question was at 40% or 41% in NH and she only got 38% of the vote there.

Nice catch. That's the outlier.

[Wiz in Wis]

It's annoying we're going to have to wait another full hour just because 4 HP counties in Michigan have their polls close at 9.

No results? Won't some trickle in?

[Wiz in Wis]

People said Bernie could only win caucuses. He could only win small states. Tonight will be a big statement.

I'll give you that. But can he do it again in a week?

Why not? Hasn't he defied expectations as it is?

He has, clearly, it s a good night for him. At the same time, Hillary won OH, TX, and PA late in 08. Was a big story for weeks. lots of momentum. Didn't matter long run.

[Wiz in Wis]

#HowStupidAreThePeopleOfMichigan

Smarter than the people of Iowa or South Carolina.

Can we not do this? I get a little gloating, especially considering the polling FAIL.

Let them celebrate their win. The nomination is still very much harder for the Bernie team.

[Wiz in Wis]

Hillary still nets more delegates from today, right? I still feel confident about Illinois and Florida to finish this off.

He's staying in till California regardless. He's leading a "movement," which makes it hard to believe he'd concede before all the voting is done, unless he gets creamed by a margin that, frankly, seems unlikely given tonight.

[Wiz in Wis]

Hillary still nets more delegates from today, right? I still feel confident about Illinois and Florida to finish this off.

Yeah, they both get 63 from Michigan and she gets 31 in Mississippi and he got 2 in Mississippi.

Not quite, the math in Michigan is rather complicated due to the delegates being split both state wide (28+17 PLEOs) and by districts.

Yeah, NY times giving him as much as 10 delegate lead out of MI. However, you're right, MS will net Hillary nearly 30.

[Wiz in Wis]

One thing that is overlooked, especially given Bernie's issue with Superdelegates, is that Hillary banked not just 20 or so pledged delegates, but also netted 125k vote margin overall. She's up by nearly 1.6 million votes overall (not counting caucuses... probably 1mil with both). He's gotta net that by a lot everywhere else to convince the supers to swing to him.

[Wiz in Wis]

Hillary still nets more delegates from today, right? I still feel confident about Illinois and Florida to finish this off.

Yeah, they both get 63 from Michigan and she gets 31 in Mississippi and he got 2 in Mississippi.

Not quite, the math in Michigan is rather complicated due to the delegates being split both state wide (28+17 PLEOs) and by districts.

Yeah, NY times giving him as much as 10 delegate lead out of MI. However, you're right, MS will net Hillary nearly 30.

According to NYT it's 81 Clinton / 64 Sanders (total for both states)

Still not done in both states. Still think she nets 20 delegates overall.