Wisconsin Megathread

[Wiz in Wis]

As a Madison resident, I can say that Soglin's aura here is vastly overstated. He may win mayoral races against novices, but he's not going to get that advantage against someone like Tony Evers.

And if he DOES win the primary, I can say 100% we are screwed. Even if he wins the general, he's a giant piece of crap.

[Wiz in Wis]

Evers is still the favorite, but I think Mitchell has a real chance in a very large field, if only because he will clean up in Milwaukee with Moore's machine behind him. He's also got the firefighters union. I'd put him at #2 right now, just past Vinehout.

[Wiz in Wis]

Soglin vetoes Taco Bell liquor license

Freedom Veto (the fewer people going to Taco Bell, the better!)

Ironically, Soglin's micro-managing of Madison's restaurant scene is one of the main reasons I would never support him in a primary. He's a very "you kids! get off my lawn" mayor.

[Wiz in Wis]

Also, don't know if anyone has noticed here, but former state Assemblywoman Kelda Helen Roys has entered the race for governor.

At the risk of sounding sexist, she's easily the most easy on the eyes candidate we have for Governor.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/daniel-bice/2017/12/07/bice-ex-rep-kelda-roys-joins-packed-field-dems-hoping-challenge-gov-scott-walker/930913001/

[Wiz in Wis]

Since i live in the district next to SD 10, I have been hearing radio ads for the republican primary. pretty typical stuff other than Zimmerman has been running attack ads against Jarchow for not being 100% loyal to walker. i do see that Jarchow has locked up most of the endorsements from current and former elected officials including the third HD Rep in SD 10.

What's so interesting about SD 10, exactly?

There is a special election? that's about it. Seeing how democrats have been improving in specials nationwide it may be interesting to watch.

This is actually in the NW corner of the state, near Minneapolis-St Paul. I do think that it's possible, though not likely, that this seat could flip. It's closest analogue in my mind is GA-06.

[Wiz in Wis]

Rep Mandela Barnes (D-Mke) running for Lt. Gov.

https://urbanmilwaukee.com/pressrelease/mandela-barnes-announces-run-for-wisconsin-lieutenant-governor/

[Wiz in Wis]

I've been a fan of Barnes for a while and am happy to see him enter the race. Who does he support in the Governor's race, FWIW?

I doubt he'd declare in support of anyone. That would make him winning and someone else winning the gov primary... awkward.

[Wiz in Wis]

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Endorsed with Mitchell as second pick.

Why? Do you want Walker re-elected?

[Wiz in Wis]

Evers' fundraising numbers are in. He currently boasts "2400+" donors, an average donation of $85.23, donors from 71 of Wisconsin's 72 counties, with 94% of his donations coming from Wisconsin. He's currently raised $312,000 without loaning his campaign any money.

Wonder what the odd county out is?

Either Florence or Menominee

[Wiz in Wis]

If SD-10/AD-58 are any indicator of how things will be in November here are my ratings (I'm probably a bit too cautious here):

SD-01 - Lean R (Toss-Up in the Special Election)
SD-03 - Safe D
SD-05 - Lean D (Dem Pick Up)
SD-07 - Safe D
SD-09 - Likely R
SD-11 - Lean R
SD-13 - Lean R
SD-15 - Safe D
SD-17 - Lean D (Dem Pick Up)
SD-19 - Toss Up (Calling A Dem Pick Up Right Now)
SD-21 - Likely R
SD-23 - Lean R
SD-25 - Likely D
SD-27 - Safe D
SD-29 - Likely R
SD-31 - Likely D
SD-33 - Likely R

I'd shift SD-01, SD-09, SD-23, and SD-29 all one notch Dem using your rankings.

It should be noted that SD-10 had 2 UW campuses (River Falls & Stout) in it. While we don't know what the turnout was, the Dem won landslides in Dunn and Pierce counties. That should make SD-17 (Platteville) a pickup and SD-31 (Eau Claire) an easy hold.

[Wiz in Wis]

Not that he a shot in hell at winning, but:

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Yeah, why would the young African American have a shot at winning in this large field of other credible challengers

[Wiz in Wis]

I think I'm leaning towards Dallet in the primary only because I fear that Burns might lose the general. If it's Dallet vs Burns I'd probably vote Burns. Weird.

[Wiz in Wis]

City of Madison was already to the statewide spring primary average by 11 AM:

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Dane punched way above it's weight last spring too, which is part of the reason Evers crushed it in the DPI election. This is probably very good news for Burns, assuming that Dane is over-performing.

[Wiz in Wis]

Liberals win St Croix County - Driftless Region is not liking Screnock.

[Wiz in Wis]

Liberals win Winnebago

[Wiz in Wis]

Final map by party total, 100% Reporting:

[Wiz in Wis]

Who is the favorite to win the run off?

Should be Dallet. She did really well in the Driftless region.

What's really impressive to me, frankly, is Dane County. Yes, the liberals combined did really well out west, but Dane turned in an 83-17 liberal win with 25% turnout. That's outstanding.

[Wiz in Wis]

So, based on these results, can we all finally agree that Scott Walker is finished?

Nah, I don’t see any Dem candidate inspiring the Driftless area while at the same time reducing losses in Walker’s WOW base.

Why would Burns/Dallet over perform in the Driftless but the governors candidates would not?

[Wiz in Wis]

I still don't get the argument that Dallet/Burns are better suited to the Driftless region than would be Evers/Mitchell, etc. Dallet is from Milwaukee, Burns is from Madison.

I mean, Screnock is from Sauk County! He's from that region! Why would Walker do better there than a native son?

[Wiz in Wis]

State Senator Terry Moulton (R-23: Chippewa Falls) is not seeking reelection

If the wave is as big as some of the special elections in the state have hinted at, this could flip.

District Map

Used to be held by Pat Krietlow (D), then before that Dave Zien (R). District inlcudes half of Marshfield and NE suburbs of Eau Claire (Chippewa Falls, Hallie, Altoona). Could be very swingy.

SD's 1, 5, 17, and now 23 are all up in 2018 and are no better for GOP than tossups at this point, given SD 10.

[Wiz in Wis]

You know, someone who I haven't seen many people talk about is this Mandela Barnes guy who's running for Lieutenant Governor. He's a former State Rep who got his seat from primarying the incumbent, and unsuccessfully attempted to primary a State Senate incumbent in 2016. He's young(only 31), African-American, and he has a good quality Twitter profile(which I guess = charisma, or something).

Provided he wins the primary, I can see him become a rising star at some point the future. Thoughts, anyone?

http://www.mandelabarnes.com/

He's a Chris Larson crony, glad he lost!

the MKE County Dem Party is the most fragmented dumpster fire of a party in the state. Larson v Abele is a giant waste of time, and I hate all of them.

[Wiz in Wis]

You know, someone who I haven't seen many people talk about is this Mandela Barnes guy who's running for Lieutenant Governor. He's a former State Rep who got his seat from primarying the incumbent, and unsuccessfully attempted to primary a State Senate incumbent in 2016. He's young(only 31), African-American, and he has a good quality Twitter profile(which I guess = charisma, or something).

Provided he wins the primary, I can see him become a rising star at some point the future. Thoughts, anyone?

http://www.mandelabarnes.com/

He's a Chris Larson crony, glad he lost!

the MKE County Dem Party is the most fragmented dumpster fire of a party in the state. Larson v Abele is a giant waste of time, and I hate all of them.

Kinda fits the bill of the most fragmented city in the U.S.

You guys should read up on the wonder of a person that is Chris Larson.

Oh, I know Chris. He was my Senator when I lived in Oak Creek. He's a turd. I much prefer a similarly flawed Chris Abele. Honestly, the only MKE Dems I genuinely like as people are David Crowley and Gwen Moore.

[Wiz in Wis]

Anyone care to fill me on the horrors of Chris Larson?

The two big ones I can remember were when he pushed and got a white candidate from the suburbs to represent a very heavy black majority district into office because the white area voted much more heavily in the primary. She was his handpicked person.

Also orchestrated Mandela Barnes rise and tried to do the same with knocking out Lena Taylor.

He also voted for the rebuild of the Estabrook damn even though taking it down would be the environmentally and fiscally better option. Support was for the few rich people along the man made lake a little upstream in the burbs.

There is a lot more that I can't remember but he wants to be King Larson while playing the people's progressive.

To be fair, Sandy Pasch was already in the Assembly, and she was redistricted into a new district with more of MKE proper. When the incumbent AA Dem in that district didn't run for reelection (She was running for Senate, and lost that primary), Pasch did and held the seat, for one term. This is the problem with MKE dems. There are 5-6 coalitions that hate each other for stupid reasons and the groups often randomly line up in short term alliances that fall apart when one person is offended.

[Wiz in Wis]

Gass, Masterjedi and Arch,

Ouch.

[Wiz in Wis]

Charles Franklin at Marquette suggests both of these races are at least as winnable as SD 10, with HD 42 probably more winnable

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/979203446573293568