The Empathy of Mittens

[Wiz in Wis]

What, that legalization of gay marriage has a negative effect on divorce rates as a whole? No, I don't believe that to be the case. As you said, the evidence showed no correlation as a whole. That may change.

I suspect we will find a drop in overall marriage rates over time (ie, fewer people choosing to get married). We shall see.

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There is nothing to indicate that the result we did get is anything other than random fluctuations.

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I'm saying, "eh, that sucks. There's nothing to indicate any statistical correlation one way or another. This one's a punt".

You still are misconstruing how confidence intervals work.

Then I withdraw my comment. I apologize. I'm just saying, for me to support the policy requires a bigger jump than a statistically insignificant result. Surely you can respect that?

All else being equal, the evidence here is that the policy does more harm than good.  All else may not be equal, but if your argument is that we shouldn't treat a 51% chance as preferable to a 49% chance, I do disagree.

That interracial marriages do poorer than marriages that are single-race? If Black/Black does worse, then this premise is not true.

uh, considering that whites greatly outnumber blacks, that isn't necessarily true, even if it were relevant to my construction somehow (see below.)

Couple things here.

One, 'incentivization' comes into play with adoption. Yes, I think placements should be done to place with the best option available for the children.

Yes, and incentivizing gay people to enter relationships and then adopt is a much better option available than leaving them in foster homes because stable gay couples might have marginally inferior outcomes to stable heterosexual relationships (although I'm not sure the research actually agrees with that, but putting that aside for the moment...)

Two, I don't believe that gay people should be forced play straight. Never said that. It depends on the gay person. Do I believe they can be happy getting married to a woman, having children? Absolutely. Do I believe they will be happy never getting married at all? Absolutely. Not getting married is a perfectly valid option for gay men and women.

Yes, much as not getting married is a personally valid option for those in heterosexual unions (interracial or black/black) that aren't as high-outcome.  You do realize that this is not how you rebut a reductio ad absurdum?

Massachusetts closed down a Catholic charity devoted to adoption simply because they did placements in accordance to their Catholic faith.

Are their children waiting to be adopted? Absolutely. Is the ideology of the state more important than seeing these children placed? Also true. If the state does not want Catholic charities operating on Catholic lines, then I see no reason to argue why the Church should provide adoptions to gay men and women at all. Quid pro quo.

How does this rebut my point in any way, shape, or form?  Not all existing charities are Catholic.  Also, I doubt that your opposition to gay adoption by Catholic charities has anything to do with the state's action.  If it does, I don't think you mean "quid pro quo" (what for what?) as much as you mean "unethical passive-aggressive bull."

and again, how does this rebut my point?  it doesn't.  you're the worst.

I used to be on the other side of this argument, but, things change.

Yes, you converted to Catholicism.  I wonder if you knew how statistical significance worked beforehand.  There are people who agree with me who have terrible arguments to defend their views too.

I'd rather not resurrect another thread and another topic here, is all. That combined with your comment about how incredibly hard you worked and how strapped for time you were...

I ran a hell of a lot of data analysis for you to not bother to even understand how statistical significance works.

IT'S A CONTINUUM.

A CONTINUUM.

C-O-N-T-I-N-U-U-M.

you're the worst.

and aren't you a Canadian anyway?

As a statistician... I have to say Alcon, you made a noble effort, but sometimes people just don't understand math. Remember, 1/2 of all people have below average IQ.

[Wiz in Wis]

Look what Smeagol finds! Statistically significant & everything:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/divorce-rates-appear-higher-in-states.html

Banning Gay Marriage is correlated with Increasing Divorce Rates.