Young Moderate Republican
Rookie
Posts: 33
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« on: September 09, 2017, 06:15:47 PM » |
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It really depends on if Trump keeps his support. If he does, then it's a pretty reasonable assumption that he will. Hillary did what she would normally have needed to do in the Democratic counties in order to win Florida and even won Hillsborough. The broke the latino meter like all of the analysis said she needed to in order to win. The only problem is that Trump broke the white meter in most of the suburban/exurban areas and it was more than enough to offset her latino surge. The problem for Democrats is that the latino surge is their only path to victory in Florida. Who wins will likely depend on whether or not Trump drives his base to the polls again in the same number. There's a solid chance he will and a solid chance he won't. At this point, any analysis that puts Florida at anything other than a 50-50 proposition is thinking rather wishfully. Some people point out approval ratings, but I consider it hogwash. If Trump's approval ratings were going to be what cost him Florida, he would have lost in 2016 when his favorability ratings were no better than his approval rating is now.
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