2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[PoliticalShelter]

Non-college educated whites are apparently planning on voting for Congressional Democrats in 2018 at 65 - 28 percent which is actually slightly worse than congressional democrats in 2016 did with non college whites (66 - 31).

Which I could believe if Democrats were losing in the Gemeric ballot by a few point.

This is not the case however so I'm calling junk on this.

[PoliticalShelter]

Copying from a Griff post:

Worth noting that:

Year	House PV	CNN GCB (12 months out)	PV Diff from GCB
1998	R+1.1	Tie	1.1
2002	R+4.8	R+5	0.2
2006	D+8.0	D+7	1.0
2010	R+6.8	R+6	0.8
2014	R+5.7	R+2	3.7

Historically pretty accurate; 2014 was off by the most and even that is basically margin of error territory in a normal poll.

So not completely pointless to look at the ballot this far out.

[PoliticalShelter]

Non-college educated whites are apparently planning on voting for Congressional Democrats in 2018 at 65 - 28 percent which is actually slightly worse than congressional democrats in 2016 did with non college whites (66 - 31).

Which I could believe if Democrats were losing in the Gemeric ballot by a few point.

This is not the case however so I'm calling junk on this.

Trump loves the poorly educated whites and they love him back. It's no surprise there would be far more swing among college educated whites.

So democrats are doing just as poorly with non-college whites when they lost congressional vote as they are when apparently winning the vote by 14 points.

In light of the results in Wisconsin, I don't think so.

[PoliticalShelter]

Non-college educated whites are apparently planning on voting for Congressional Democrats in 2018 at 65 - 28 percent which is actually slightly worse than congressional democrats in 2016 did with non college whites (66 - 31).

Which I could believe if Democrats were losing in the Gemeric ballot by a few point.

This is not the case however so I'm calling junk on this.

Trump loves the poorly educated whites and they love him back. It's no surprise there would be far more swing among college educated whites.

So democrats are doing just as poorly with non-college whites when they lost congressional vote as they are when apparently winning the vote by 14 points.

In light of the results in Wisconsin, I don't think so.

You really can't extrapolate nationwide from one special election. Relatively high turnout elections in Virginia and Alabama match up with Pew's findings, Dems gaining among white college educated voters.

First Wisconsin I believe was actually had fairly high turnout from what I hear.

Also I could use New Jersey as an example of Democrats gaining Non-college whites in a non-special election, at least in Northern states.

[PoliticalShelter]

First Wisconsin I believe was actually had fairly high turnout from what I hear.

No.

Ok looking it up you were right. What I meant to say was unlike in a state like Alabma where turnout in democratic areas was very high but turnout in republican areas was extremely low, turnout in Wisconsin was relatively similar in both GOP and Democratic stronghold areas, suggesting that they probably were able to swing a good number of non-college whites who had voted for Trump.