Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[PoliticalShelter]

Those are maps for civil unrest, not Democratic dominance.

Because those maps don't show that, they both look pretty competitive between the two parties.

[PoliticalShelter]

Anyway I'm more inclined toward the map by mvd10 than kingpoleon and I agree that there won't be that many radical changes to the map, not by the 2030s at least.

[PoliticalShelter]

Taking a preliminary look at California, it seems that it would have large swathes of narrowly republican suburbs in a duel with the less populous but staunchly democratic Los Angeles, with San Diego County and San Francisco deciding the winner. Lean D, but barely so.

I don't see San Francisco ever becoming a swing area, the Bay Area as a whole is actually one of the most economically left wing areas in the state and was one of the strongest places for OWS. Unless San Franisico undergoes even more rapid gentrification I don't see the city being anything but safe D.

Overall I'm somewhat doubtful that California will be that competitive in the future, unless the Hispanic population gets much more affluent during that time or some kind of water crisis pushes up utility rates and forces the poorest residents to leave the state.

[PoliticalShelter]

Good maps so far!

Personally I think you should factor in how much income inequality there is in each state, and adjust it so more equal and wealthy states should be more republican than wealthy states that have higher levels of inequality.



So I would have wealthy states like New Hampshire and Minnesota swing much further to the republicans than wealthy states like Massachusetts and Connecticut that are much more unequal.

[PoliticalShelter]

Looks the theory that Iowa is the next West Virginia are true after all!

I'm interested as to how you are accounting for hownmuch internal migration the Hispanic population undertakes and how much the Hispanic will integrate by this time. I found a map that shows where the Hispanic population seems to be moving too:



It's interesting that the states predicted to get the most influx of Hispanics are coastal southern states like Alabama, Louisania and South Carolina.

Also Eastern Iowa seems to be a future destination for Hispanics so you might need to adjust for that, unless you believe that Hispanics will have integrated enough for there to be no effect.

[PoliticalShelter]

Wow, interesting that Western PA still seems republican in this alignment (save a couple of counties). I wonder what this means for West Virginia.

[PoliticalShelter]

Is South Carolina now a swing state in this alignment?

[PoliticalShelter]

What state is has the highest democratic PVI? Looks like it's Mississippi based on your map.

[PoliticalShelter]

What would be the closest swing states in this alignment?

Also I'm surprised that Maine still seems to be very democratic. I know that it's one of the poorer Northeastern states, but I would imagine that a more secular culturally northern GOP would do somewhat better.

I mean Gerald Ford did manage to win a majority of the counties in Maine in a close election that he lost (granted he was up against Carter, who was a terrible fit for Maine, but still).