This assumes that neither Morrison or Tester have a blind spot on issues such as guns, taxes, or national security that Burns can turn to his advantage. Baucus nearly lost in 1996 when Rehberg pinned him with the "liberal" label. Montana is still a conservative/liberatarian state.
Montana may be a libertarian-ish state, but it is not purely libertarian. It is not a wealthy state by any means. While there may be an anti-government aura to Montana's conservativism, it sure isn't a purely libertarian one. Montanans are not necessarily completely friendly to big business because, well, there is very little of it in the state. Taxes are not as huge of an issue, and at this point even a state like Montana is giving poor approvals to Bush on national security issues (I believe, but am not entirely certain).
You're right about guns, though. Winning as an anti-gun candidate in Montana is next to impossible. Then again, being anti-gun in the Democratic Party is pretty difficult by itself. Everyone and their florist has a gun in MT.
I imagine guns wouldn't be a problem for them, as Montana lacks a big urban area to put out gun control advocates anyway. I heard someone describe half of the state as libertarian with a populist streak and the other half as fairly conservative.
