ECRI again sticking to its guns - double's down again on its recession call

[Politico]

I'll believe a recession is around the corner (or quarter, if you will) when the S&P 500 starts a downward trajectory. Obviously there is going to be a shakeup once the proverbial **** hits the fan in Europe, but who really knows what it is going to happen? Regardless of whether or not a recession happens this year, it is hard to see the price of gas coming down at any point this year given the messy situation in Iran (unless, of course, the EU meltdown causes a September 2008-style panic). In any case, I would prefer to be involved with Romney's campaign than Obama's campaign. Given the state of America, both socially and especially economically, I am 90% sure that Romney is going to be the 45th President of the United States of America.

[Politico]

This chart is hardly a homerun for the case that M1 velocity is a leading indicator of recessions.

you missed their point:  velocity has fallen off a cliff, and the only thing holding the house of cards up is massive money pumping by the Fed.

It's funny how Politico Wonkish and other conservatives are arguing how QE was going to cause the velocity of money to explode and lead to hyperinflation.

Thank you for correcting this. The most I ever implied could happen would be a return of double-digit inflation similar to what we saw in the late 1970s. This could still happen down the road, obviously, but I would not bet on it anytime soon.