Could the new lines in New Mexico backfire on democrats? (user search)
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  Could the new lines in New Mexico backfire on democrats? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Could the new lines in New Mexico backfire on democrats?  (Read 591 times)
TML
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,532


« on: December 13, 2021, 05:01:08 PM »

No, not really. A "backfire" would require that Democrats win less than they would be expected to win under a fair map, so they'd have to be winning an average of either zero or one seats over the course of the decade. I do not think anyone seriously believes that any district other than NM-02 is holdable for the Republicans long-term unless the state shifts hard right, so there's your answer.

In this case, I think the OP's premise is his apparent belief that Republicans will soon achieve Bush '04-levels of support among Hispanics.
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