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Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,509
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« on: October 24, 2018, 09:33:33 PM » |
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This poll certainly is atrocious on the surface, but it still doesn't erase the overall lack of reliability of polls conducted here. Remember that in 2016, the forecasted margin by 538 (according to polls tracked by them) was R+23, which was 13 points off the actual result of R+36. In addition, 538's founder also pointed out that the average polling error conducted at this stage of campaigns since 1998 was 6 points, which implies that even polling leads of 10-15 points aren't necessarily considered "safe."
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