Is Heitkamp Really DOA In The Election This Time? 2018 GE Edition

[TML]

As I said earlier, it is still too early to count her out on the basis of limited polling.

At this stage six years ago, one could have also made the case that she was on track to lose based on available polling back then. In fact, during that year, she was considered an underdog by several major political prediction outlets even during the final days leading up to Election Day. Plus, 538's fundamentals favor her, and 538 notes that over the past 30 years, the polls have more often than not moved in the direction of the fundamentals during the final stretch. Back in 2012, that's exactly what happened, as her deficit had narrowed considerably by late October.

I will reserve judgment for now, but I will say this: if there are high-quality polls conducted in late October/early November which show her with a deficit as big as now (if not bigger), then I can probably say that she is on track to lose. On the other hand, if the polls at that time show a substantially narrower margin than now (or even a lead for her), then the race is, at a minimum, a jump-ball.