TML
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,496
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« on: May 04, 2017, 10:30:24 PM » |
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I suspect that Ohio is probably going the way of Missouri in terms of being a bellwether/swing state.
Remember that in 2016, the final pre-election polls indicated that Trump was expected to win Ohio, but only by about 2-4%. If that had been his actual winning percentage in Ohio, then he would almost certainly have lost Michigan & Pennsylvania. Also, in 2008, Obama lost Missouri by just a fraction of a percent, which would suggest that if had he lost the general election, he would probably have lost that state by 10% or more.
Thus, I would expect Ohio to be a swing state if the Democratic nominee were on track to win 320+ electoral votes.
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