Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Webnicz]

I will admit the way AZ counts ballots is weird. The 100% reporting indicates ballots cast on Election Day and the number we have now includes early ballots. They look good for sinema considering the GOP had a 7.5% advantage in both categories.

The remaining ballots are “late earlies” which traditionally favor democrats but I’m not putting bets on anything bc a mcsally win is totally possible but traditionally they slightly favor dems, there are more than 500k from Maricopa and Pima.

Are there many votes still out in places like Mohave and Yavapai? If there are that’s not good news

From what I’ve heard Yavapai and Mohave are essentially done.

[Webnicz]

When should Arizona results come in?

Tomorrow at 5pm!!!

**For those who want data now**
Im looking at the results that have been published by precinct and I have to say, I am more impressed than I was intending to be - in regards to Sinema making inroads in the East Valley (CD5) which is a very middle class/college educated trumpland

 I suppose I will share with you one of my arizona election/data secrets.
These are pdf's of the 2018 election and 2016 election. You can search a precinct individually in each to compare. I dont expect most of you to know precincts off the bat so heres some you can search for reference(In parenthesis is the early vote advantage):

the ctrl+F search method will be a great friend while doing this

Lantana Canyon(+11.9R)
Nightingale(+19.2R)
***Sun Groves*** (+11R) - take a look at this one
Bayshore (+14.2R)
Highland(+33.3R) - do not confuse with the "desert highland" precinct

you get the gist
keep in mind the numbers that are reporting rn in maricopa are early votes only and e-day votes which averaged +9.2R for maricopa county

2016 election precinct results :
https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionarchives/2016/11-08-2016%20Final%20Precinct%20Report.pdf

2018 early/eday precinct results:
https://recorder.maricopa.gov/media/Detail.pdf

[Webnicz]

so the "swing state" of nevada has a congressional delegation of one republican lol

[Webnicz]

Gaynor would be such an awful SOS