Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[John Dule]

Pretty insane that Polis is winning by over 17 now in Colorado and there is absolutely no talk about him from the press like there is DeSantis, despite CO being the same form of FL just in terms of blue/red transition. I get that DeSantis is the shiny thing, but it's clear they are paying way more attention to him just b/c of the Trump factor than actual electoral prowess.

Polis went on Bill Maher this week and described himself as a libertarian. There is a huge appetite for our ideas so long as they are wrapped up in someone electable. He will have my enthusiastic vote anytime he wants to run for president.

[John Dule]

Pretty insane that Polis is winning by over 17 now in Colorado and there is absolutely no talk about him from the press like there is DeSantis, despite CO being the same form of FL just in terms of blue/red transition. I get that DeSantis is the shiny thing, but it's clear they are paying way more attention to him just b/c of the Trump factor than actual electoral prowess.

Polis went on Bill Maher this week and described himself as a libertarian. There is a huge appetite for our ideas so long as they are wrapped up in someone electable. He will have my enthusiastic vote anytime he wants to run for president.

And this is why I hate Polis.

Cringe. Libertarianism is the future of the Democratic Party and there’s nothing you can do about it.

[John Dule]

I was comparing the results of the 2021 runoff election to the first-round results of Warnock's election in Georgia. From what I can see, Walker flipped Washington and Baldwin counties, but no other counties changed.

[John Dule]

Honestly, in this case I kind of like the slow pace of election results. It's satisfying to watch this gradually slip away from Lake.

NO LAKES

NO MASTERS

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/dougmastriano/status/1591925822268788737

Mastriano concedes

This is so alarmingly decent that I can't help but think it was written by an intern before he logged off for the last time.

[John Dule]

Giddy up

https://twitter.com/MZanona/status/1591932159866060802?s=20&t=RhTsNMlQlAlc1d...

If things get rough for McConnell he can always retreat to the safety of his trusty shell.

[John Dule]

Yeah, it always seemed weird to me that Newsom didn't even try. I get he was always going to win, but he could've at least attempted to campaign for downballot reasons. I know he did campaign with a few and send some of the competitive CDs money, but he could've done a lot, lot more.

Newsom has never been politically apt, and the Democrats should nominate someone like Shapiro or Polis if they're so hell-bent on picking a governor for their next nominee. A safe blue state Democrat like Newsom has never had to work a day in his life to win an election, and campaigning does not come naturally to him.

[John Dule]

It would be funny if the GOP flipped the House but the fabled military ballots come in to save Fisch anyway.

Why would those favor Fisch?

[John Dule]

Polis now up by 18.5%, less than 1% away from DeSantis. It's funny how one is hailed as a presidential candidate immediately while the other is constantly sh*t on by Democrats.

This is a joke from you, isn't it? Have you ever been to Florida? Do you know how diverse that State is? I bet you don't.

DeSantis is very much a legitimate Presidential Contender if he choses to run.

I think he's saying that Polis is being underrated, not that DeSantis is overrated. Which I agree with.

[John Dule]

Lowkey, I feel like this election shows how Dems are overcoming the geography advantage long held by Republicans. Most of Rs biggest gains were concentrated in areas that were either Safe D/Safe R. I mean just look at the NYT swing map, the country as a whole clearly swung Rs but dems gaiend where they needed too.

And while some suburbs swung back to the right, few swung *significantly* to the right and the ones that did had special circumstances.

The challenge for Dems ofc is still going to be the Senate, but Rs gaining in NY and FL makes me feel a bit more optimistic as it seems like Dems may have strength in places like AK, KS, and MT down the road and held their ground quite well in the northeast.

If the Dems can trade strength in SoCal and upstate New York for votes in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and the Midwest, then that's 100% worth it in the long run (regardless of whatever temporary losses they're suffering now).

[John Dule]

With a Republican House and a Democratic Senate, I think there's a distinctly non-zero chance that both houses of congress switch party control in 2024. When was the last time such a thing happened?

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591975376523497473

I'm almost positive that this is a phony account. Erica Marsh was a character on One Tree Hill. A simple Google search doesn't show anything other than that, not to mention the account was just created in Sept.

Oh no! Muh trustworthy blue checks!

[John Dule]

How do we feel on hobbs?

Hobbsianism is undefeatable.

[John Dule]

NBC projection still on 219-216 GOP control +/- 4. Not sure if they're seeing something differently than us, but they seem to be more bullish on there still being a narrow path for the Dems.

They're just hedging their bets.

[John Dule]

Can we maybe start citing sources other than Twitter blue checks for major news developments?

[John Dule]

[John Dule]

It's official: I missed only one governor's race this cycle, and as of right now, zero senate races. The John Dule Model is more accurate than Trafalgar.

[John Dule]

Geez. Tudes isn't taking her loss very well, it seems.

https://twitter.com/TudorDixon/status/1592329289826869249

The blue state you were running to represent a week ago, my girl. 

I love my state unless I lose an election here, in which case I would rather commit suicide by car than spend another miserable second in this sh*thole.

[John Dule]

The DNC should bar Gavin Newsom from ever running for the Democratic nomination for President because of how badly he f***** up our House chances.

I lol'd so hard at the people on here who said Newsom ran a "great recall campaign." First, that thing was never going to win anyway. And second, the only reason Newsom put any effort into that whatsoever was for turnout reasons. He was clearly scared of another Gray Davis scenario where low Dem turnout could cost him the vote, and so he actually bothered to campaign. He had no such worries during the regular midterm though, which meant he could coast on by (as he always has) on name recognition, party loyalty, and sheer intertia.

I wasn't very vocal about the MI gov race on this board because despite living here now, I voted in California. But I am a much bigger fan of my adopted home's governor than I am of Newsom (which isn't saying much, but still).

[John Dule]

It's official: I missed only one governor's race this cycle, and as of right now, zero senate races. The John Dule Model is more accurate than Trafalgar.

Who do you have for the runoff?

I stupidly predicted Walker initially. I thought depressed Dem turnout might help him, and I also thought Kemp might be able to win enough to pull him over 50%. In hindsight I should've known that if the Dems were winning everywhere else they'd be fine in GA, but I got worried that I was being too bullish on them. But of course, it's not done yet. Walker could still win.

[John Dule]

It’s so annoying that we won’t get to keep the House because idiot judges in NY and CA decided to engage in unilateral disarmament and throw out gerrymandered maps

California has this system cause of a ballot measure , not cause legislative democrats supported switching to it

The Virgin "fight fire with fire" versus the Chad Unilateral Disarmament

[John Dule]

So looks like I was right about the House being safe for Republicans, after all, despite the endless mocking and coping in this thread.

You do not know what the word safe means.

[John Dule]

So looks like I was right about the House being safe for Republicans, after all, despite the endless mocking and coping in this thread.

You do not know what the word safe means.

No, like, I was >99% certain of an R majority by the weekend. So rating it safe was the only reasonable thing to do.

This is like the "Titanium Tilt D Nevada" argument but unironic.

[John Dule]

if you complain about ranked-choice voting then god does not love you