Inauguration Day poll: Does Trump get convicted or acquitted by the Senate?

[John Dule]

For now, I'm going with tilt convict. I think McConnell knows that a lengthy Senate proceeding on this issue will only serve to keep Trump in people's minds, thus emboldening Democrats. He is also probably concerned about the rumors (albeit unsubstantiated ones) that Trump intends to launch a third party. He might try to nip this in the bud by giving the Democrats their conviction in exchange for a speedy trial process.

The most likely path I see for conviction right now would require a number of GOP senators who are on the fence to simply not show up to the vote. This would make it easier for the Democrats to reach the 2/3rds majority (out of members present), and would allow them to escape voting one way or the other on a potentially damaging issue like this. The Cruzes and Hawleys would still vote to acquit, of course.