Random Experiment: 2020 polling averages adjusted by 2016 polling errors (user search)
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  Random Experiment: 2020 polling averages adjusted by 2016 polling errors (search mode)
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Author Topic: Random Experiment: 2020 polling averages adjusted by 2016 polling errors  (Read 1216 times)
John Dule
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Posts: 18,510
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.57, S: -7.50

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« on: June 10, 2020, 06:52:30 PM »

It's an interesting thought experiment, but the polling will be much more accurate this year. MI, WI, and PA were all severely underpolled in 2016, and the smaller sample size was part of the reason why they missed so wildly.
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John Dule
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,510
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.57, S: -7.50

P P P
« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2020, 07:10:23 PM »

It's an interesting thought experiment, but the polling will be much more accurate this year. MI, WI, and PA were all severely underpolled in 2016, and the smaller sample size was part of the reason why they missed so wildly.
Were they?
A lot of pollsters even in 2018 didnt fix the education problem.
However the good news for Wisconsin is it's likely we have gold standard Marquette back

Leaving the methodology aside, there just weren't many polls run in those states that I saw on the RCP tracker back then. Not even enough to calculate an average with at some points. I don't know what they've done to improve the methodology, but I guarantee you that pollsters won't neglect to put their resources there this time.
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