When will the next two-term president be elected?

[John Dule]

I've been thinking about this for a while-- whether or not Biden would seek re-election if he won, and whether or not he or his successor would be able to win re-election for the Democratic Party in the White House. What does Atlas think? Personally, I can see a Democrat winning in 2020 but losing to a Republican in 2024... still, I don't know if that Republican would win re-election, so I might have to vote for option 5-- Trump in 2016, a Democrat in 2020, and a Republican in 2024, each serving only one term.

[John Dule]

If Joe Biden wins a majority of electors on election night, but dies before they meet to vote, would his replacement count as "getting elected" for the purposes of this question?

Hmm, I didn't even consider someone dying in office...

[John Dule]

I'm going to bump this thread to see how the results change. You can change your votes as you see fit, but I have a screenshot of the original results. Interesting that as of August 2019, about 1/3rd of Atlas thought Trump would win reelection.

[John Dule]

I have to say, after mulling it over a little I am sticking with Option #5. I still think Biden is not going to run for re-election (of course, I didn't think he'd run in 2020 to begin with, so take this with a grain of salt). If he chooses to go only one term, he won't announce it until 2023. I think that the winner of 2024, whether it's a Democrat succeeding Biden or a Republican beating that successor, will go on to be a one-termer as well.