Explain Ukrainian politics to me

[kelestian]

Western Ukraine is fiscally conservative
Eastern Ukraine is socially conservative

It's not true. Both parts are socially conservative and fiscally liberal, as another countries of former USSR. Main differences are preferences in foreign politics (Western - EU, East - Russia), religion (Western - Ukrainian Orthodox, Greek-Catholic, Uniats, Eastern - Russian Orthodox), language (Ukranian for the West, Russian for the east) and more widely - cultural differences.

[kelestian]

From 2004 presidential election Ukranian politics is the fight of two main forces - Blue (East Ukraine) and Orange (West Ukraine). In 2004 president Kuchma support Yanukovich as his successor (Blue party), and elections were rigged in Yanukovich's favor. It has caused public outrage and so-called Orange Revolution in Kiev. In the result, election was held again and Yuschenko from Orange party finall won.

So, Blue camp is associated with Party of Regions, which was Yanukovich's party in 2004. After that party came in opposition.
Heart of party were Donetsk region, but its important parts were political clans from Crivoy Rog, Luhantsk etc. Party dominated in south-eastern regions and had some power in Zakarpatie (single swing region) .Party declared support for Russian language as the state's second language (because of strong opposition, russian became only regional language during Yanukovich's presidency), importance of cultural and economical ties with Russia, opposition to West-Ukranian cultural views (such as glorification of Ukrainian Insurgent Army). Also party was strongly associated with oligarch Achmetov from Donetsk.

Communist party - strong where Party of Region was strong. Main supporters - old people. Life-long leader - Petr Simonenko. Party was strong during crysises in 1990-2000, when Simonenko was main rival of president Kuchma.  Later it became irrelevant, just Party of Region ally, more friendly to USSR, with red flag and maybe more left in economics.

Both parties disappeared after huge Blue-loss in 2014 (Maidan Revolution).

Now there are a lot of small smithers of Regions Perty and one big - Opposition Bloc. It hold power in Odessa, Zaporyzhie, parts of Donetsk and Luhantsk (parts under Ukrainian control) and Harkov. This party of course is less powerful than Regions Party, big number of Blue voters stayed in Crimea, LDNR and DNR. Also turnout in south-eastern regions has dropped dramatically in recent elections. But who knows, if Orange bloc fails again...


Of course, Ukrainian politics is more complicated, for example, political clan from blue region of Dnepropetrovsk is one of the main Orange clans (former prime-minister Timoshenko, former president Turchinov), and for example during Yuschenko's presidency Yanukovich was his prime minister in 2006-2007 (because of the controversies in Orange camp)

[kelestian]

There are a lot of parties in Orange bloc, i'll describe parties with representation in Rada. All parties are strong in West and Central Ukraine (dominate in West), support integration in EU, strongly oppose Russia, support state discrimination of Russian language (more or less), light form of Ukrainian nationalism ('ukrainian nationalists during WW2 were heroes', anticommunism etc)

 Yulia Timoschenko's bloc - main opposition party during Yanukovich's presidency. Party united around its leader, now is strong in rural areas. Everyone thought that Vona (Yulia) would win 2014 presidential election, but this lady suffered terrible defeat. She hates Poroshenko for years, and circumstances forced Timoshenko became part of presidential coalition! Now some polls show, that she can win next election (her rating is about 20% and rating of Poroshenko - 15%)

Petr Poroshenko's bloc (union of Solidarnost and party Udar of Vitaliy Clichko) - party of president and prime-minister Groismann. Strange construction, includes former members of Party of Region, defectors from Timoshenko's bloc, young liberal journalists, militaries etc. Party is strong in Central Ukraine, especially in Poroshenko's stronghold Vinnitsa, and is stronger than other orange parties in South-Eastern regions.

Radical party - party of clown and populist Oleg Lyashko. Fraction includes criminals and models-like looked young girls. More piece of garbage than a party, i don't understand why people vote for it. Party and its leader are very similar to Russian LDPR party and Zhirinovskiy.

People's front - party of former prime minister Yatsenyuk, internal minister Avakov, head of NSDC Turchynov and Speaker Parubiy (former hard nationalist). More 'patriotic' party. Was part of Timoshenko's party before 2014 parliamentary election and will disappear before next elections.

Samopomich party - party of Lvov's mayor Sadoviy. Strong in cities, Western regions and between the youth. More economically conservative party. A lot of good members,  fraction doesn't include single memebers of former parliament (good decision). Two bad things: Semen Semenchenko, idiot and provocateur, is influential member; secondary, garbage scandal in Lvov definitely hurt popularity of party and chances of Sadoviy's future  presidency.

Nationalists (Freedom party, Right Sector etc) - radical ukrainian nationalists. Strong in western regions. Freedom party is extremly unpopular in south-eastern regions. Leftwing in economics, radical right in other fields. Don't support integration with EU; leaders want an alliance with Baltic countries and Poland.


All parties except People's Front and Poroshenko's bloc are now in opposition; they criticise him as weak, corrupt and too friendly in his relations with Russia (so other parties are more hawkish).


All of main blue and orange parties are controlled by oligarchs. Leaders of both camps are completely corrupt and incompetent (they proved it during 2005-2010 and 2010-2014). Single person who isn't so awful in my opinion is former orange president Yushenko, he had good record as head of National Bank and as prime-minister during Kuchma. Unfortunately, he had quarelled with another orange leaders and World financial crysis happened during his presidency. Also, in my opinion, his support of radical ukrainian nationalism was terrible idea.
Another more-or-less competent person - Turchynov, maybe.

[kelestian]

Great analysis, Crumpets!

Single mistake: Radical party isn't leftwing, i don't think it can be desribed other than "populist" and "corrupt in the heart".

[kelestian]

Wasn't Mikheil Saakashvili (lol) starting his own party?

few days ago he has become show host on ukranian TV) Of course, he is popular figure in Western and central regions, so if Saakashvili creates the electionary bloc with some young liberal post-maidan politicians, this alliance will be in next Parliament.

Also, I've never heard the Freedom Party being characterized as left-wing on economics before. I know this is common with a lot of far right parties throughout Europe but I just never heard it with them. In general, Western Ukrainian politicians generally are pretty free market and Eastern Ukrainians more left-wing. Easterners are more likely to be explicit about their economic policies while Westerners usually just hide behind Ukrainian nationalism or anti-Russiaism because obviously free market capitalism isn't super popular in Eastern Europe in general.

Freedom is left-wing economically, for example, there is one huge question: should government allows private citizens to buy state's lands (important for agriculture)? IMF and Poroshenko want it, but they faced strong opposition from nationalists and Opposition bloc.

2 months ago main nationalist parties (Freedom, Right Sector and National corps (civil structure of Azov regiment)) made union. Some points from their common programm:
"Return to the state ownership of subsoil, strategic facilities and factories illegally privatized after 1991"
"Prohibit sale of land"
"Create conditions for the development of effective trade union movement"

[kelestian]

 i must add, that part-proportional part-plurality voting system in Ukraine looks not good. A lot of MPs who were elected in their own constituencies are just corrupt businessmen, they gift  cheap food to old people in constituency and later come to the Parliament. Some of them created two parliamentary blocs in favor of some oligarchs (those oligarchs are leaders of their blocs). Many  of candidates in constituencies declare themself as independent; that's how Yanukovich won 2012 parliamentary election, when Party of regions got only 30% and blue-bloc only 104 seats by proportional voting (Opposition - 121 seats), but suddenly bunch of 'Independent' MPs had joined Yanukovich's coalition.

And for God's sake i hope they will allow gubernatorial elections for all regions