538 model & poll tracker thread

[Former President tack50]

We'll see what the finished product looks like, but my first thought on reading those tweets was "they're trying too hard".

Pretty much this. I understand the 2016 PTSD, but why not just copy and adapt their 2018 graphics?

They were simple and straight to the point really. And the "7 in 8" instead of 87.5% thing helped to convey probabilities better.

[Former President tack50]

Nate Silver, regression-based estimate tweet (Talk Elections won't let me include links until I post more)

They only have Biden up 76% in DC? Are they expecting Trump to triple his vote share from last election?

Well the Trump campaign is running ads in DC so I think they expect DC to be competitive

[Former President tack50]

Biden's chances are surprisingly low.

I'm also not really a fan of the design, but welp.

Could they be overcompensating for 2016? Tbh given how this models get rated it is probably better to give Biden too low of a chance at winning than too high.

Also the design is interesting. Better than what I expected though not ideal