🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Former President tack50]

Here is the current composition of the 16 German state governments:



The numbers indicate how many seats each state has in the 2nd chamer of parliament - the Bundesrat, which represents the states at the federal level.

Well, that seems like a mess, particularly since there's no way a state government can split and it's also unlikely that they'll vote against the national party.

Which means a more accurate description of the Bundesrat now might be:

Government (fully, both CDU and SPD): 5
Government (partially, only CDU): 5
Government (partially, only SPD): 6

Pure opposition (neither CDU nor SPD): 0

How much power does the Bundesrat have? Are they required for all laws or only small stuff?

[Former President tack50]

At some point sooner or later, SPD will fall below the 5% threshold in some regional election

[Former President tack50]

So, from the Bremen results, it seems these coalitions are possible:

CDU+SPD (please kill the SPD already if the go with this!)
SPD+Grüne+Linke
SPD+Grüne+FDP
CDU+Grüne+FDP

Which one would be the most likely?

[Former President tack50]

One thing that happens very seldom should be noted about the 2014 Brandenburg state election:

All of you probably know that there is a 5% threshold that a party has to pass in order to enter the Bundestag or a Landtag. (There is an exception in Schleswig-Holstein, where the party of the Danish minority, the SSW, is exempt from the threshold.)
On the federal level, however, a party can avoid the 5% hurdle by winning three direct seats via the first vote. That law is called Grundmandatsklausel ("basic mandate clause") and enabled the PDS (the predecessor of the Left) in 1994 to enter the Bundestag as a parlamenatry group.

Some states also offer such a rule: In Berlin, Brandenburg and Schleswig-Holstein, a party needs to win one direct seat; in Saxony two direct mandates are necessary to avoid the 5% threshold.
Christoph Schulze, a former SPD member, won the constituency Teltow-Fläming III south of Berlin for the BVB/FW (that's what the Free Voters are called in Brandenburg). Hence the Free Voters entered the Landtag with three members despite having only received 2.7% of the second vote. In the meantime Schulze has left the party after severe factionalism.

Could Schulze be elected as an independent in that constituency? Or does no one really care for independent candidates in Germany?

[Former President tack50]

Here is the result map of the local elections in the ten states that took place on the same day as the European election; the small dots represent the party with the second-most votes:



The AfD was so successful in East Germany that they won way more seats than they can fill with a mandate. About two dozens cities and counties are adversely affected by the AfD's strong performance.

What is the 2nd placed party in Baden-Württenberg? I have never seen that colour (cyan?) before. Some sort of local party?

[Former President tack50]

Any chance of a state getting a "Negative majority" soon? (AfD+Linke at a majority and no possibility of Red-Red-Green, which would "solve" the issue)

I imagine the former GDR states would be prime candidates for that and iirc one of them (Saxony-Anhalt I believe?) only very narrowly avoided one reciently.

And what would happen if a negative majority ends up happening somewhere?

CDU finally drops the cordon sanitaire and does a deal with AfD?
An awkward (to say the least) "everyone except AfD" coalition, propped up by Linke?
A AfD-Linke coalition?

[Former President tack50]

Saxonys AFD is running considerably more to the traditional right and away from the far right "Vogelschiss/Denkmal der Schande" Höcke-aligned fractions in thuringia and Brandenburg. Saxony is also the only state where there are serious discussions in the CDU about Black-blue (Blaubeere?) coalitions. Kretschmer has denied it, but many in the CDU fraction want to consider it.

The AFDs strategy is obvious. They want to either break the Cordon sanitaire or destroy the CDUs credibilty by forcing them into ever more instable constellations, even with the linke (as Daniel Günther has proposed).

I'm astonished at how many technical terms you learn in this forum.
So, what do you mean by "Cordon sanitaire", a term that was originally aimed at the stripe between the German Reich and the Soviet Union consisting of freshly minted states after WWI?

I like the coalition name "blueberry" by the way. If the CDU and the Left ever gonna strike up a cooperation, their coalition oughta be called "loganberry coalition".

Since Germany loves naming coalitions after country flags, maybe they should name it Estonia coalition?

No white party though

[Former President tack50]

27.5% for the AfD is the best result for the party ever in Germany in state, federal and EU elections and matches the best result that the FPÖ ever scored: 27.5% in the 1996 EU election (they got 26.9% in the 1999 federal election and 26.0% in the 2017 federal election).

Worth noting this is only in a couple of states. Getting 27.5% Austria-wide is much more impressive than getting 27.5% in a single state.

[Former President tack50]

And finally, a German state gets a negative majority and even red-red-green wouldn't save it.

What happens in that scenario?

[Former President tack50]

Yay negative majority! So what happens next? CDU caves and rules with AfD? Or they reach a deal with Linke?

Or my favourite: a Nazbol AfD-Linke coalition

[Former President tack50]

Considering Linke+AfD have a majority and even Red-Red-Green won't be able to save this, what happens next? The only options I can find are Linke-CDU; Linke-SPD-Green-FDP and AfD-CDU-FDP.

None of which seems particularly good to me. Honestly I kind of hope for the last one in order to have clearly drawn left vs right lines, but I would be ok with the 4 party coalition as well (and if I lived in Thuringia I would hope for that one).

Linke-CDU is the one I am afraid of. If CDU starts doing deals with borderline commies (not that I have a problem with Linke, but I imagine a lot of German conservatives do) the German moderate right is dead. Which means a lot of moderate conservatives will start voting AfD, which is a very, very bad thing.

[Former President tack50]

Is this the first ever Minister-president from FDP then? Kinda reminds me of some similar screwed up situations locally here lol

[Former President tack50]

Honestly the situation here reminds me a lot of the situation in Melilla here, where Cs (who only have 1 MP) presented their own candidate and got elected by surprise as regional president with the support of the local muslim party and PSOE despite only narrowly getting in at all.

Anyways, in case it wasn't clear enough, RIP Thuringia and RIP Germany when (and it's a when, not an if) AfD+Linke get a negative majority. Repeat of the 1930s and what not.

IMO the best solution for Thuringia was a Linke-SPD-Green-FDP government. CDU can retain its position as the main conservative alternative instead of abdicating that position to the AfD like they did nationally and in several states.

[Former President tack50]

IMO the best solution for Thuringia was a Linke-SPD-Green-FDP government.

FDP forming a government with the Left is about as (un)likely as the FDP forming a government with the AfD.

Realistically, the current options are:
1) A government of "non-partisan experts".
2) A CDU-FDP minority cabinet.
3) A CDU-SPD-FDP minority cabinet.
4) A CDU-SPD-Greens-FDP minority cabinet.
5) A snap election.

I would suppose Kemmerich will explore options 2 through 4 first now?

I mean, my position would involve planning for that from the start as well as doing some sort of compromises along the way, like for example having the Greens or the SPD leading the government. (maybe a SPD-Green coalition with outside support from Linke and FDP?). Or maybe some sort of independent left leaning technocrat if Germany allows for those.

[Former President tack50]

Any recent poll?

Infratest dimap (January 28, 2020) - in comparison with the election result from October:

Left 32% (+1)
AfD 24% (+0.6)
CDU 19% (-2.7)
SPD 8% (-0.2)
Greens 6% (+0.8 )
FDP 6% (+1)

So, nothing will get solved and in fact things will only get worse?

Anyways, given the negative majority Thuringia now has to choose between 3 "unthinkable and unholy" options: CDU-AfD cooperation, CDU-Linke cooperation or FDP-Linke cooperation. The math literally does now allow for any other options.

Though maybe this move hurts FDP and makes them drop below the threshold, meaning a majority Linke-SPD-Greens government can be formed.

[Former President tack50]

This is very ironic that all the discussion is on the FDP and Kemmerich when to me the real story is the vote of the much larger CDU bloc voting for Kemmerich.  If the CDU was so concerned about Kemmerich winning with a AFD backed plurality vote, all they needed to do was abstain and let Ramelow be reelected.

Correct. The CDU's goal was to get rid of Ramelow and now that they got what they wanted, they throw Kemmerich under the bus. They are as much to blame as the FDP.

Why would Ramelow be gone? He is definitely going to be Linke's candidate for the next election given his popularity right? Especially if snap elections happen soon.

In fact there is a slim chance of a Red-Red-Green majority if FDP falls below threshold I think (maybe combined with some sort of CDU->SPD/Greens transfer of votes).

Granted I think a more likely scenario is FDP actually gaining for their "bravery" and "being the only true right wing party in Germany that is not insane" but still

[Former President tack50]

Assuming the CDU of Thuringia is expelled, what happens to them? Does Thuringia get CDU against the CDU-Thuringen?

Has that ever happened in Germany? (even the CSU situation is quite different)

[Former President tack50]

Has a party leading a government actually ever lost all of its seats in the subsequent election? Might happen soon...

(assuming that Slovenia '14 doesn't count as Alenka Bratušek had already left her party ahead of the election while continuing to serve as Prime Minister)

Not in the EU of course, but Turkey 2002 (ie, the start of the Erdogan era) should count I guess. Turkey had some huge thresholds though the party leading the government was very far from meeting them anyways, getting only 1.7% of the vote

[Former President tack50]

Looking at that poll, what happens in the plausible scenario where all of SPD, Greens and FDP fall below threshold?

Speaking of which, I hope FDP falls below threshold. That would allow for a relatively easy red red green coalition, which would solve the issues and allow Germany to kick the can of "what happens with a negative majority?" 4 more years.

Eventually, someone is going to have to cave in some German State (almost certainly in East Germany). Either CDU (and/or possibly FDP) cooperate with Linke, or they cooperate with AfD. But one cordon sanitaire will have to be broken eventually

[Former President tack50]

Imagine an scenario where all the minor parties drop out and only Linke, AfD and CDU make it into parliament. What happens next? (also assuming Linke does not get a majority of its own)

[Former President tack50]

I'm a member of a dead party Why can't we have something like En Marche?

If anything I'd argue the CDU is closer to that than the SPD?

[Former President tack50]

Looking at that Thuringia poll, and given that a negative majority seems almost a certainty again; I wonder when will any German state eventually "bite the bullet" and go with some sort of CDU-FDP-AfD coalition (doesn't even need to be a proper coalition, standard toleration would work)

Honestly cordon sanitaires are unsustainable and eventually end up backfiring. I'd rather have AfD giving external support with 10% of the vote, than it growing to 25% because "all parties are the same, they don't care about us" and them getting to lead a minority government of some sort or more likely forcing dumb coalitions like CDU-Linke (or eventually 50% but I will admit the party growing that much is nearly impossible).

And on this note, is AfD in power anywhere? Even as a junior coalition member in some rural village in the middle of nowhere?

I must imagine that there must be at least some rural village with 400 people where they vote for an AfD guy for mayor because in those kinds of super small villages party affiliation doesn't really matter. (indeed, Vox here held 3 elected mayors in 2015 and a fourth who switched parties; and this was when they polled at 0.2% nationally!)

[Former President tack50]

And on this note, is AfD in power anywhere? Even as a junior coalition member in some rural village in the middle of nowhere?

I must imagine that there must be at least some rural village with 400 people where they vote for an AfD guy for mayor because in those kinds of super small villages party affiliation doesn't really matter. (indeed, Vox here held 3 elected mayors in 2015 and a fourth who switched parties; and this was when they polled at 0.2% nationally!)

In the 900-inhabitant village of Frankenstein (yes, that's really its name!) in Rhineland-Palatinate, the only (!) CDU member of the municipal council, Monika Schirdewahn, and her husband, the only AfD member of that council, formed a caucus called "Fortschritt Frankenstein" back in 2019, but she was immediately expelled from her party.

In Luther City Eisleben in Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU formed a coalition with the AfD. After a news magazine discovered that Martin Ahrendt of the AfD faction was a convicted Neonazi, who regularly shares right-wig extremist content on Facebook, the CDU cancelled the cooperation.

That Saxony-Anhalt city comes the closest to what I was thinking, but is that really it? I am surprised Germany doesn't have more of the uber weird local results compared to here; or that AfD doesn't have an overall mayority (or even just an elected mayor) in some rural Saxony village of like 50 people.

Like I said our far right controlled 3 rural villages of 50 people even when polling at 0.2%. And I am aware of some bizarre results in local elections in the past, with the most hilarious one being an IU-Falange coalition in some Andalusian village in 2007.

[Former President tack50]

The answer is: 'Never' - especially not with the AfD being a Verdachtsfall for the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. It is more likely that the party gets dissolved than that the CDU will ever enter into a state level cooperation. Let alone the FDP (for which it would be political suicide).

Even CDU-LINKE is ten times more likely. And it is unlikely enough.

Disagree. They work just well.

Not really, just look at Thuringia. The fact that there is a negative majority there means the cordon sanitaire has 100% unambiguously failed. There is no question about that.

There is no guarantee that the AfD will lose support once in power. Quite the contrary is possible. 

And even if we hypothetically assume that such a guarantee exists, there is still one important point to consider: In the first scenario (AfD at 25% but maintaining total opposition), the only real downside is that the other parties will have a harder time forming a coalition. In the second scenario (AfD at 10% but providing outside support), (a) the AfD's racist and xenophobic positions are legitimized; (b) the AfD has actual power over policy-making; (c) the AfD can blackmail the ruling coalition at any time.

I have no doubt which scenario is better for German democracy.

Yeah I know there is no guarantee that they'd go down after a coalition but they are a party that gets 15% of the vote and up to 25% in certain states. Given just how many people vote for them, why shouldn't they be normalized gradually?

Linke was also not normalized at one point and that was a mistake in my opinion; leading to the disastrous grand coalitions of 2005 (Red-Red-Green or Traffic Lights should have been the pick there) and to a lesser extent 2013 (R2G had a majority though I'll admit going for it would have been slightly undemocratic)

[Former President tack50]

I appreciate the responses from the German posters in this thread (and its sister). I guess I am just going to have to agree to disagree

Tbh it doesn't help that I have a big allergy to grand coalitions other than in very limited circumstances since they kill the junior partner (which happened to be the SPD in Germany) and make extreme parties increase; as well as for some reason me perhaps wrongly seeing the rise of Grüne at least partially as a symbol and clearest example of everything wrong with the modern (European) left (losing working class voters in favour of wealthy bourgeoise voters in cities and hipstery youths).