Which will have higher turnout: US midterms 2018 or EU parliament election 2019?

[Former President tack50]

Pretty much what it says.

EU parliamentary elections have been stuck around the low 40s for a while US midterms have been around that as well historically except for 2014. Worth noting that thus far no EU election has had lower turnout than the closest American midterm to it.

However US midterms are also taken much more seriously (or at least have more consecuences) than EU parliamentary elections.

So I wonder if this year the American midterms might actually have higher turnout than EU parliamentary elections for the first time ever.

[Former President tack50]

In Belgium EU parliament election turnout will be high, cause it's on the same day as the federal and regional election (and voting is mandatory, not voting = fine (though rarely prosecuted)).

On that note, I'd expect a big turnout increase here in Spain as the EU elections will be the same day as the local elections.

Which means that turnout will go up from the usual 40-45% of EU elections to around 65% or so, the usual turnout for local elections.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, I'll go against the majority and vote for the EU parliamentary election. Why? Mostly historical precedent.

Yes, the 2014 midterms had quite lowturnout, but the last time the US midterms had turnout above 42% was in 1970. Since 1970 there have been a lot of midterm elections under very different circumstances. Some were Dem waves, other were GOP waves, others were more neutral years. Some took place with a democratic president, some with a GOP president. Some with a popular president, others with an unpopular president.

Meanwhile turnout has been extremely constant at around 38-41%, no matter the circumstances of the election. So even if there's a democratic wave with a lot of energy, turnout will probably reach what, 42% at most? (like say, the comparable 1994 and 2010 GOP waves or the previous 2006 dem wave).

Meanwhille EU parliamentary elections seem to have reached rock bottom turnout, they can't go much lower. Yes, people have no idea who or what they are voting for but they still work as a protest against the government. In fact, maybe anti-EU parties doing well will ironically increase turnout slightly.

The difference won't be large, and a tie at around 42-43% turnout is actually what I'm predicting (with a very small advantage to the EU elections), but the US midterms would need turnout not seen in almost 50 years to be the favourites in turnout or win decisively.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah I guess I was wrong. I expected higher turnout (around 42%, comparable to 2010 and 2006), but certainly not "record breaking in decades" turnout (seems to be the highest since 1970)

While I do expect turnout in the EU to beat 2014 as well, it won't beat the midterms. (45% tops)

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I did not see this coming.

I didn't see either coming lol. Had I been forced to predict I'd have said like 45% in both.

51%, says the EU parliament.

Higher than the 50.3% in the US ... highest in more than 2 decades.

EU wins.

You would think that Europe knew this bet existed, what with turnout rising for the first time in...ever, correct?

Yup. 2014's turnout was extremely close to 2009's, but I think it was still a very tiny drop.