The Southern White Vote: Pre-Election Polls vs. Exit Polls

[Stranger in a strange land]

Indiana and Ohio are not part of the South.  And a good argument can be made that KY, WV and OK aren't either.

Still, this is surprising how?  Imagine if the election hadn't been about Democratic-favorable issues (for now) in a very Democratic-favorable environment, for a sec...

Well, we don't have to imagine it; 2004 was about Republican favorable issues (at the time) and in a Republican favorable environment, and Kerry didn't do much worse with the white southern vote (better in some places).

Kerry had one thing against him - Catholic.  Obama has three - black, Muslim and *exotic*.

You would appear to be supporting his argument, given Obama's performance. (Also, I doubt there was much anti-Catholic bias in 2004. The bias was regional, although you could argue that the regional divide has some of its roots in anti-Catholic views that no longer manifest as such today.)

A lot of fundie protestants still don't like Catholics. Still, being a Boston Bhramin hurt Kerry far more than being a Catholic did.

[Stranger in a strange land]

There tends to be a larger margin of error in subsamples.. even if the sub sample is pretty big.

Also. can. someone. explain. to. me. why. any. white. in. the. deep. south. would. vote. for. obama?

There. is. absolutely. postively. NO. ideological. similarities. with. them. and. Obama.

Well for starters it would be in the economic interests of many of them to do so. Also, not all southern whites agree on every single issue.