Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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Posts: 10,217
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2008, 12:38:55 PM » |
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The Stans are a lot more likely to fall to China than they are to Russia.
And let's not forget: Russia has serious long-term problems of its own. Its birthrate is even lower than Western Europe's, many women are infertile from having so many abortions, and its people drink more, smoke more, and commit suicide more often on a per capita basis than almost anyone else on earth. Add to that Russia has very little, if any, soft power: Communism had worldwide appeal because it promised freedom and equality, but nobody outside of Russia (and maybe Belarus and Serbia) is attracted to Russian traditionalism and Slavic supremacy. Not that I'm a huge believer in soft power, but it matters a lot more than many people seem to think.
If Russia tries to retake Ukraine, the Baltics, and Central Asia, it could well die of indigestion.
Russia does, however, have one major resource: oil. Russia is still relevant in international politics because it's Saudi Arabia with Missiles. If we cut down on our oil usage through conservation, alternative energy, nuclear power, hybrid and hydrogen cars, and responsible domestic drilling, we can hurt them. You might hurt a little bit by conserving, that's true, but it will hurt Putin, Chavez, Abdullah, and Ahmadinejad much more.
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