IF he had been against Mfume, and IF it had been 2002 or 2004, then it would have been a close race, with Steele getting at least 47 or 48. In 2006 - no. He ran a great campaign and lost handily to a terrible candidate in Ben Cardin.
er cardin wasn't as terrible as, say, Conrad Burns, Katherine Harris, George Allen, or that guy who ran against Hillary this time around (I forget his name). Steele ran probably the best campaign he could have under the circumstances, and Cardin didn't commit any major gaffes, so it's really impossible for me to see how steele could have won.