I say IA, NM, FL, OH, NH, WI, and PA as tossups and NV, CO, MO as light blue.
No, PA is not a tossup at all, it leans strongly Democrat. The others could be considered tossups, sure, but not PA or NH. And FL is just as light blue as MO, CO, and NV.
Virginia, Arizona, Missouri, Colorado, Arkansas and Florida are in no way, shape, or form going Democratic in 2008, especially with candidates like Hillary, Edwards, or Obama. The only foreseeable way I can see Democrats picking up a state like VA is if they nominate a right-wing Democrat like Zell Miller with Jim Webb as VP, and even that would be a tough sell in solid Republican states like VA or CO.
Wishful thinking, Mikey, and very rooted in the past.
Opebo told you off much better than I ever could, but consider this: if an awkward, uncharismatic liberal like John Kerry who ran a terrible campaign could score in the high 40s in most of these states, it couldn't be that difficult for a better candidate running even a mediocre (as opposed to an abominable) campaign to win at least a few of them. And remember that Bush, for all his flaws, IS a good campaigner.
Your argument sounds like the thesis of Zell Miller's book, which was a presciect, penetrating analysis when it was written, but which is now obsolete. Katrina was a major factor, as was the fact that little progress has been made in Iraq, and that the war there seems to have mainly benefitted Iran. If Zell weren't senile, I daresay he might be considering coming back to the democratic party.
VA and CO are not solidly republican states. If they were, George Allen would still be in the Senate, with or without Macaca, and Colorado would still have a republican governor and 2 GOP senators.
Poll
