2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[choclatechip45]

It's interesting how post-2016, your predictions have generally been much more D-friendly than mine I'm curious why you believe CT is Likely D while RI is a Toss-Up. While I do think Raimondo is potentially vulnerable, Malloy is much more unpopular, and will probably drag down the Democratic candidate to an extent.

I fail to see what exactly is Democratic-friendly about my prediction. If anything, you could argue that I’m being too generous to Republicans in MI, ME and FL.

As for CT, I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not buying that Republicans have a strong enough candidate here who could win in what will be a D tidal wave in CT, a state that is ground zero for Trump backlash. I’m not saying Raimondo will lose or that Fung has an easy path to victory, but I wouldn’t be that surprised if he won. Unlike Malloy, she will be on the ballot this fall and she’s already in a tie with him in the polls, which is not a good position to be in for an incumbent running in a deep blue state in a D wave year (although the undecideds could certainly break heavily for Raimondo).

I just meant more D friendly than my prediction, since only your ratings in KS, ME, and RI are more Republican-friendly, but you're more generous to Democrats in several states.

I could see Malloy's popularity (or lack thereof) being a bigger factor in the gubernatorial race than Trump's popularity (again, lack thereof might be a better way of putting it), and while the national environment could save the Democrats here, I'm not sure why you consider CT ground zero for a Trump backlash. It doesn't seem as strongly anti-Trump as some other blue states, nor is it a state where Trump has the potential to lose a lot of support from 2016 (I'd say RI fits that bill pretty well.) While Fung is already close in the polls, he's pretty well known in the state, so I'm not sure he has nearly as much room to climb as a lesser-known candidate might.

You are very mistaken regarding the gubernatorial in CT. There was a poll that came out earlier in the year and had Malloy 12% more unpopular than Trump. You keep mentioning that CT is an ideal place for Dems and their enthusiasm to translate to big wins, but take these two things into consideration: (1) I would argue that that enthusiasm is not as pronounced as in a Red state since CT voters have no Republican incumbents to vote out of office at the statewide or federal levels; and (2) CT gubernatorial elections are so localized, most people are zoned out of the national movements are are focused on this race. Additionally, I would argue that even though Dems are enthused, Republicans in Connecticut are as much or even more enthused considering our narrow losses in 2010/2014, our momentum in picking up dozens of state legislative seats, and Malloy's/Dem legislature's unpopularity (i.e., state budget, new tax increases, etc).

Don't forget that before our current Democratic is the first in two decades. One last thing. The current political climate has striking parallels to 2006, an overwhelmingly Dem year. However, the Republican governor, who was for the first time running on her own after a huge corruption scandal, won 63% of the vote. Really makes you think that the Dems are not in a strong position whatsoever.

Republicans just lost a state house seat that they held for 44 years. Foley won Stratford in 2014. If it was a referendum on Malloy they wouldn't have lost it! Dem energy is a lot higher in CT right now than Republican energy.  Again Rell had an incumbent advantage she wasn't a placeholder none of the republican candidates are currently governor.

[choclatechip45]

They did lose a house seat, by less than 80 votes. The Republican nominee was in his 70's, the Stratford RTC barely had a campaign operation, and the CT all-Dem Congressional delegation helped with the GOTV. If the Republicans put in the work they would have won. Really strongly disagree that Dem energy is higher. Misguided to say otherwise.

The RTC had no campaign operation because there is no energy on the republican side. Democrats won because they had more volunteers and more grassroots energy. You also think the dems have no chance at the governorship which is false. Republicans said the same thing in 2014 and how did that work out? The CT all-Dem Congressional delegation will be campaigning for whomever wins the nomination for governor and so will Murphy and Blumenthal. The Republicans are not putting any serious challengers in those races. The guy they have challenging Murphy  former chief strategist is Carl Higbie who was to racist for the trump administration.