Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[AZdude]

I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

China-Taiwan in comparison seems simple.  China wants to annex Taiwan, the only question is whether or not they can do it militarily and/or handle the consequences.

But what does Russia want?  The consensus (sorry Andriy) seems to be that Ukraine will get slaughtered in a war with Russia. 

-Tear off more Ukrainian territory?  Make the Sea of Azov a Russian lake?  Most people I've read seem to think that's the most likely scenario.  But paradoxically, it would just make the rest of Ukraine even more anti-Russian and pro-NATO, and make the rest of NATO far more amenable to letting them join.

-Install a pro-Russian puppet in Kiev?  I can't imagine large chunks of Ukraine, especially in the West, supporting that.

-Annex Ukraine entirely?  The same thing goes for West Ukraine times 100.  Also, this seems by far the most likely scenario to bring NATO intervention.

Have Ukrainians ever heard of the concept of "addition by subtraction"?  As much as it might hurt their pride, maybe they should consider letting TRULY-pro-Russian areas of the country go, if it lets them salvage the rest of the country and takes the boundary-dispute roadblock out of NATO membership.  But that also might cause too much economic damage to the country - I certainly plead guilty to not being terribly educated on the matter.

Please don't come at me too hard, I usually read instead of posting, but I really wanted to hear the thoughts of people closer to the situation than I am.

[AZdude]

I don't what kind of terms are being offered, but short of something terrible vassal status, I almost wish Ukraine would accept it.  They've shown how brave they are, and they've shown the Russian armed forces as being almost a complete joke.  But unless they know about some concrete action the West is going to take, I'm worried a whole bunch of civilians are going to start dying.

Seeing a Russian-speaking city like Kharkiv bombed like that makes me wonder what the tyrant has in store for Kyiv, not to mention West Ukraine.  Also, a lot of the other news today seems pretty grim - letting prisoners go to serve in the military, hyping the volunteer force and almost begging to join the EU don't scream confidence.  As much as the Russian casualty numbers have been hyped, you have to wonder just how high the good guys' losses have been.

Maybe in this case, discretion would be the better part of valor.  Anything to keep a Ukrainian nation around, keep working on building up and modernizing the armed forces, and then when the time comes, rip up any agreements and kick the Russians asses once and for all.  They certainly have no problems with deceit when it serves their purposes.

[AZdude]

I've often wondered what happened to that woman who made the sunflower seeds comment.  The Russians showed restraint at the the time, but once it went viral, who knows what may have happened to her.  Given that she was in a place that fell shortly after the war began (Southern Ukraine?), we may never know.

[AZdude]

The scary part about the Dugina barbecue is how many Russian/pro-Russian Twitter accounts are now saying things like "It's time to take off the gloves."  I don't know what's more delusional, somehow ignoring what Russia has been doing to Ukrainian children for months, or thinking that Russia would stand a chance in any sort of confrontation with NATO.

[AZdude]

We've been seeing some really heartwarming videos of Ukrainian civilians welcoming Ukrainian soldiers who are liberating them.  Assuming the amazing success of the AFU continues, I would love to see what the civilian response would be if they recapture territory held by the LPR or DPR for the past 8 years.

As much as I want to see Ukraine victorious and returned to its 2014 borders, it would terrible if some sort of insurgency develops in Donbass or Crimea.

[AZdude]

If the war ended on the current lines or thereabouts, but the truncated Ukraine were given immediate NATO membership and fast-tracked for EU membership, could that really be seen as a victory for Russia?

The Orcs clearly have a demented obsession with Ukraine that they don't have with any of the other former republics (the Belarus puppet state notwithstanding), and as other posters have mentioned, they've talked from the beginning about regime change in Kyiv. A prosperous, free Ukraine in NATO has to be something out of their worst nightmares, even if they gain some territory out of it.

Obviously, like most of the non-psychos posting here, I'm hoping with all my heart for a resounding victory in the coming counteroffensive, and an eventual Ukrainian advance to the 2013 borders. But I'm also afraid of possible growing resentment in the West towards money being spent there, even if it's mostly due to disinformation campaigns.