OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[InheritTheWind]

My brain says Balderson, my gut says O'Connor.

Then again my gut was right over my brain with AL-SEN and PA-18 so who knows

[InheritTheWind]

A couple more nail biting wins like that in significant right leaning districts and Republicans will win themselves into a minority position of the House.

While it would have been nice to flip it, this is another massive over performance by Democrats.

Maybe - maybe not.

If this election had been held in the spring, O’Conner would have won.

If PA 18 had been held today I believe Saccone would have won.

Estes will win by a good margin in Kansas in November.  

This socialist tilt by a wing of your party is not going to be helpful to you in attracting up scale suburban Republicans.  You really need to ditch the socialists.

There maybe a Democrat Atlas red wave, but I do not fear it as much as I did yesterday.

Balderson did 9 points worse than Trump and 36 points worse than Tiberi. How is that reassuring to Republicans again?

Because they’re grasping at any straw they can at this point.

[InheritTheWind]

Guys, this is definitely a loss. No doubt about it. The average voter doesn't keep track of partisan lean, historical elections in the district, or any of that stuff. They sit down to watch Fox and see ' (R) beats (D)'. That's pretty much it. : /

So if I'm a swing voter in and I see "R beats D in congressional election" on the news, am I supposed to immediately think "well I guess this means I'm voting GOP in November"

[InheritTheWind]

Guys, this is definitely a loss. No doubt about it. The average voter doesn't keep track of partisan lean, historical elections in the district, or any of that stuff. They sit down to watch Fox and see ' (R) beats (D)'. That's pretty much it. : /

So if I'm a swing voter in and I see "R beats D in congressional election" on the news, am I supposed to immediately think "well I guess this means I'm voting GOP in November"

No that's what all the political signs of candidates on roadways are supposed to do lol

Exactly. Which is why I think "The average voter will think Balderson won so that's bad news for the Dems" is a terrible take — there's no way in hell the results of some random special election is gonna influence the vote of anyone outside of it.