MT - AL (May 25) Predictions Thread

[McGovernForPrez]

Most people have said that the race could go either way, and they are right. I'm not sure why you are so obsessed with the presidential vote when it is basically irrelevant. This has been discussed before, but unlike in GA-06, Clinton was an awful fit for the state and that result was hardly the norm. Percentage-wise, Trump didn't even do much better than Romney here (remember: that was the year when Tester won fairly easily as well), and he did worse than Bush II either time (again: 2000 and 2004 also being years where Democrats did very well down-ballot).

The statewide Democratic Party is very strong for several reasons and shouldn't be underestimated. Besides, if Democrats are so motivated that Ossoff can get to 48% in an inelastic Southern suburban district, there is little reason to believe that they will stay home in Montana.

My curiosity was because both Romney and Trump won the state convincingly, Daines won the state in 2014, and on the federal level, Tester is the only statewide Democrat who is also a federal officer. The State Democratic Party may be doing well (they hold the governorship) but as I understand, the legislature is convincingly Republican.

The coalition in Kansas 04 and Georgia 06 had unique circumstances that enabled the Democrat to get close. In KS-04, Brownback's unpopularity was a major factor (as well as moderate Republicans voting Democratic) and in GA - 06, there was a natural suburban constituency for Ossoff, because of Clinton's close margins here.

My question here, in Montana, what exactly does Quist have to draw on in terms of a coalition on the federal level? Polarization is especially heavy for federal offices.

I'd predict Gianforte 52-47% at this point based on the data from Montana. That's the federal margin minus a couple of points to account for Democratic enthusiasm (Daines won 57%, Trump and Romney won 55%, Zinke won 55-56%).

The state has a Democratic Senator and Governor. Steve Bullock won re-election with a larger percentage of the vote, despite Trump finishing with a 20+ point win. As for Federally it's clear that Montana has no problem electing Democrats to the senate. Jon Tester is fairly well regarded, and before Daines I believe they had another Democratic senator. The state is highly elastic, much more than Georgia, so I think a win here is an extremely reasonable prediction, especially considering how poor a fit Gianforte is for the state.

[McGovernForPrez]

Alright here goes

Quist 49%
Gianforte 47%
Wicks 3%

Gianforte is the Martha Coakley of Montana and this will finally prove it. I don't see anybody who voted for Bullock switching over to Gianforte. There's been a fair amount of uproar over public lands that I see helping Quist out a lot, and the momentum is already on the Democrats side.

[McGovernForPrez]

I don't have much confidence in us winning back rural working-class whites, but I think we can do better in the resort towns and other scattered larger towns in Montana, so I'll predict that Gianforte wins by a narrow single-digit margin (7 or 8 points, maybe?)

What makes you think this? Montana is already a competitive state for Democrats. Gianforte recently lost a Gubernatorial bid, and he's an awful fit for the state. I can't see a win from either side larger than 5 points.

[McGovernForPrez]

Quist 49
Gianforte 47

Can't twist the Quist boyz.

[McGovernForPrez]

I feel like Quist has more momentum and enthusiasm.


Rob Quist - 49%
Greg Gianforte - 47%

Same bro.

CAN'T TWIST THE QUIST!!!!

[McGovernForPrez]

Quist - 50
Crazy Greg - 45
Wicks - 5

I thought Quist would narrowly pull it out before this incident, so this solidifies my belief. With EV leaning Dem, I think Republican turnout will be squashed today or instead go to Quist/Wicks.