TX-SEN: True to Form

[McGovernForPrez]

Yeah, I could see O'Rourke hold Cruz to low single digits and lay the groundwork for future Democratic races in this state, but it's really hard to see him winning.

He's probably the strongest Democratic challenger fwiw.

Of the people who will actually run, yes.

The Castro brothers are massively overrated. The best Democratic challenger here is either O'Rourke or someone non-obvious from outside politics.

Completely agree and I just can't understand why Julian Castro (his brother Joaquin does seem more compelling as a candidate) gets so much hype around here.  Someone who fits a "random guy from the middle of nowhere" or "random rich businessman/woman" profile is generally the best option for statewide office in a state that leans strongly to the other party.  A former cabinet official for the last president of the locally disfavored party is just about the worst possible option!

I think the very, very best they could do would be Mark Cuban. He would probably run as an Indie, but with the tacit endorsement of a majority of Texas Dems.

At any rate, I think this will almost surely be within 10 but will also almost surely be a Cruz win.  If Cruz gets successfully primaried by someone close to Trump, though...

Not that it matters any more where a candidate actually resides prior to campaigning (Hollingsworth, Bayh), but does Cuban even live in Texas?

He owns the Dallas Mavericks so that gives him some vested interest in the state. He also already said if he were to run for office it would be POTUS or bust.

[McGovernForPrez]

Beto O'Rourke says he's raised nearly $217,000 since announcing, with an average donation of $34.

https://twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/849019265491619840

That's already more than Ted's last opponent managed to raise. I personally think this race is likely R but I think after Flake and Heller this is the next place Dem's need to be looking at. You lose 100% of the races you don't contest.

[McGovernForPrez]

O'Rourke should create commercials where its just clips of Donald Trump insulting 'Lyin Ted Cruz'

Or better yet, add in clips from his endorsement of Donald Trump after showing those Donald Trump clips. Just create all out Republican anarchy in the state of Texas. Pit the Trump supporters against the standard Republicans and the standard Republicans against the Trump supporters.

[McGovernForPrez]

Beto O'Rourke says he's raised nearly $217,000 since announcing, with an average donation of $34.

https://twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/849019265491619840

That's already more than Ted's last opponent managed to raise. I personally think this race is likely R but I think after Flake and Heller this is the next place Dem's need to be looking at. You lose 100% of the races you don't contest.

Well, Ted's last opponent was some fat old former Blue Dog state senator from East Texas who had zero constituency or name recognition and hadn't held office since the '90s.

He also barely raised any money compared to Cruz. He still managed to get 40% of the vote. With all that said I think with better funding and more relevancy O'Rourke should at least hold Cruz within 10 points. I think depending on the outcome of GA-06 and overall national mood this race could get rather interesting.

[McGovernForPrez]

If Can't Veto the Beto isn't his slogan I'm gonna be so disappointed.

I don't think the pronunciation fits unfortunately.

[McGovernForPrez]

Matthew Dowd is OUT, will not run as an Independent for Cruz's seat.

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https://www.texastribune.org/2017/05/10/dowd-wont-challenge-cruz-2018/

I'm disappointed. Would've been nice to see him steal some of the Republican votes and allow an easier path for Beto.

[McGovernForPrez]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

I wish you the best of luck, but I'm skeptical that a 213 person survey is enough of a sample for a state as large as Texas.

[McGovernForPrez]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

I wish you the best of luck, but I'm skeptical that a 213 person survey is enough of a sample for a state as large as Texas.

Or any state.

Yeah, but especially Texas. You could probably get away with it in Vermont, or Wyoming. Texas has some diverse political regions so it's really hard to be certain without a much larger sample.

[McGovernForPrez]

Cruz will win by double digits; Atlas will be sad yet again.

He couldn't win double digits against an unfunded nobody. There's no way he wins by more than 15 points. With an incumbent republican in the white house it should be less than that.

[McGovernForPrez]

I want to see Ted Cruz erupt in flames.

[McGovernForPrez]

I find it hard to believe that Cruz would do this.

I don't. There's a difference between evangelicals like Moore and "evangelicals" like Cruz. The former, while terrifying, legitimately believe in and stand by their principles. For the latter, principles are just one more tool to win brownie points with conservative voters. Have we forgotten that Cruz first ran as a right-libertarian Paulite in 2012, then immediately bolted for the evangelical wing once he was elected?

Add that to the fact that Cruz is, objectively, a little creepy, and I can totally see him being a pornhound behind the scenes. In any case, this isn't a good look for him.

Have you ever read the stories from his college roommate on twitter? Real or not they are genuinely hilarious. Ted is a creepy dude.

[McGovernForPrez]

Lyin' Ted is now "Dirty Ted".

[McGovernForPrez]

Just reading this guy's website. He's truly something else. Something about the way he writes comes across as very "time-cubey".

[McGovernForPrez]

Those mailers have the same attitude as the radio ad he released earlier this year. It sounds like he's giving orders on who Texans can and can't vote for. I really hope stuff like this becomes his undoing because it's really obnoxious.

[McGovernForPrez]

Also for those interested in how Beto might fair tonight, here's Beto on Sean Hannity.

In fairness Ted Cruz is definitely a more formidable opponent than Tucker Carlson.