Yeah, I could see O'Rourke hold Cruz to low single digits and lay the groundwork for future Democratic races in this state, but it's really hard to see him winning.
He's probably the strongest Democratic challenger fwiw.
Of the people who will actually run, yes.
The Castro brothers are massively overrated. The best Democratic challenger here is either O'Rourke or someone non-obvious from outside politics.
Completely agree and I just can't understand why Julian Castro (his brother Joaquin does seem more compelling as a candidate) gets so much hype around here. Someone who fits a "random guy from the middle of nowhere" or "random rich businessman/woman" profile is generally the best option for statewide office in a state that leans strongly to the other party. A former cabinet official for the last president of the locally disfavored party is just about the worst possible option!
I think the very, very best they could do would be Mark Cuban. He would probably run as an Indie, but with the tacit endorsement of a majority of Texas Dems.
At any rate, I think this will almost surely be within 10 but will also almost surely be a Cruz win. If Cruz gets successfully primaried by someone close to Trump, though...
Not that it matters any more where a candidate actually resides prior to campaigning (Hollingsworth, Bayh), but does Cuban even live in Texas?
