2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3 (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130538 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« on: September 12, 2018, 04:29:25 PM »
« edited: September 12, 2018, 04:32:32 PM by Prolocutor Bagel23 »
538 right now has nearly an identical prediction to mine on how Skippy Scott will do. Loses by near a point and has a 45% chance or so of winning.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2018, 12:10:05 PM »

Yeah, McArthur is favored.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2018, 11:46:25 PM »
My family hosted a meet and greet and Q&A at our house for Colin Allred and a few other dem nominees for things like state legislature, DA, court. Had about 100 people pack in our house friday night, got to meet and talk with Colin for a bit, really cool guy, awesome slate of candidates, I hope they all win.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2018, 12:45:09 AM »
« Edited: September 15, 2018, 12:48:11 AM by Prolocutor Bagel23 »
Baldy boy up 47-46 in O'Connor internal.

O'Connor leads 48-47 after messaging. Imho fool's gold. If we had a better candidate we would have won this thing, but not with O'Connor last month and not with him again.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2018, 06:34:18 PM »

Idk, but he is quite popular, even organized labor has his back.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2018, 07:33:42 AM »

Nice.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2018, 02:53:06 PM »
Quote from: henster on September 18, 2018, 02:50:58 PM
Mai Khanh Tran or Jay Chen should've been the nominee especially considering how influential Asians are in this district.

Also Cisneros is an absolutely horrendous candidate. I think the GOP holds this now, but I'm not gonna freak out like Kornacki. This is not indicative of a national trend, this is one race with a good GOP nominee and an awful dem who is only here because he won the lottery (literally) and is part of the metoo movement, in a bad way. Running against a woman in 2018, probably going to lose, BUT NOT indicative of anything nationally.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2018, 08:35:32 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on September 18, 2018, 08:30:43 PM
Ahahahahahahahahahahahah
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2018, 10:51:19 PM »
Quote from: Paulite Hick on September 19, 2018, 10:39:52 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on September 18, 2018, 05:54:22 PM
Fun Fact: Young Kim literally doesn't believe people are born gay and still opposes same-sex marriage.

News flash: infants are do not come out of the womb with sexual desires or preferences. No one has ever been "born gay."


Even I'm evolved enough on lgbtIforgotwhatcomesafterthis issues to where I think this is mostly false. And even though I have moved passed a lot of it and don't pick on it as much anymore, Atlas is my witness that I am not a champion for that community lol.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2018, 08:46:06 AM »

Yeah she gonna lose.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2018, 12:20:29 PM »

Nice.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2018, 06:59:16 PM »
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on September 20, 2018, 06:56:58 PM
If I were Phillips, I would start plans to cancel some of my TV ad reservations to start building up my warchest for my re-election bid. Makes things easier to start the next cycle with a nice pile of cash on hand.

Barring some highly unforseen circumstance, he aint losing in 2020 of he is the incumbent. Btw, I’m moving this race from Tilt D—-> Strong Lean D.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2018, 04:15:46 PM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on September 21, 2018, 12:43:07 PM
DCCC WV-3: Ojeda 48 Miller 44



I always knew national dems would help him out.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2018, 04:16:51 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on September 21, 2018, 01:37:56 PM


The GOP should totally invest here, us dems are quaking in our boots over this critical tossup /s.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2018, 12:31:16 AM »

Always knew it.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2018, 12:59:25 AM »

So it aligns perfectly with my thought that Chabot pulls through by about 4.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2018, 08:06:15 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griff on September 23, 2018, 07:33:47 PM
I couldn't find any mention of this poll in the thread - not sure if it was privately disclosed to 538 or not - but while searching for past polls of Garin-Hart-Yang, I came across this poll link on 538's domain in search results (conducted in July, sent to 538 in August):

McGrath 50
Barr 43

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20180914_ME.pdf




Very nice!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2018, 03:54:13 PM »
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2018, 09:36:23 PM »

Yeah, this is pretty good.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #19 on: September 26, 2018, 02:34:11 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on September 26, 2018, 02:33:26 PM
DE-AL (University of Delaware)Sad

Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-inc) 58
Scott Walker (R, not related to that Scott Walker) 28

https://www.cpc.udel.edu/content-sub-site/Documents/CPC%20poll%209-25-18%20FINAL%20RELEASE.pdf

I just almost yelled who tf polled Delaware out loud now.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2018, 05:23:54 PM »

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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2018, 06:30:44 PM »
Take this with the dead sea.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2018, 07:47:02 PM »


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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2018, 02:33:57 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on September 30, 2018, 02:05:44 PM


LOL, why would you release this?

If he is down by 3 and at 43 in his own internal, he is probably losing. Already had this at tilt D, gonna move it to lean D.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2018, 09:25:13 AM »
POLL DUMP OUTTA KANSAS
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