2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

Casey, Brown, Staebnow, and Baldwin are safe, Tester and Manchin pulled weak challengers and have strong local brands, and Hawley's looking like he's going to blow it with McCaskill. So you're likely only dealing with 3 real races with Nelson, Heitkamp, and Donnely.

Plus don't forget that we have three golden pickup opportunities as well.

All of that taken together is why I think it's insane that places like PredictIt have the chances of a Democratic takeover at like 20%. Dems are up in NV, AZ, and TN, even if you put aside UTDH being a "tossup" and Bredesen being up consistently somehow counting as "lean R". Nelson will almost certainly increase his lead over Scott. People are making a huge deal out of his campaign not having enough Latino outreach and all but it's July. Nobody is paying attention yet! This is the kind of cardinal political junkie sin that people commit all too often. The fundamentals of this race all point toward Nelson, and even if Scott can indeed give him a fight (which he will) I fully expect Nelson to pull this one out. Donnelly and Heitkamp are easily the most vulnerable points for Dems, but in an environment like this I doubt they both go for Republicans, there's a good chance that neither do. There's pretty much zero polling on Indiana (thanks, absurd anti-polling laws) and Heitkamp is consistently underestimated, like she was in 2012. When you consider all of those factors together, I find it seriously absurd that PredictIt has Democratic control at 20%.

Yeah, I'd peg it just shy of 40%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

Pushing ND to Tilt R is quite bold. You could certainly make an argument for it, but there's still not a lot of polling and I think time is on Heitkamp's side (she's a better campaigner than Cramer).

It is perfectly reasonable.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

Pushing ND to Tilt R is quite bold. You could certainly make an argument for it, but there's still not a lot of polling and I think time is on Heitkamp's side (she's a better campaigner than Cramer).

It is perfectly reasonable.

If the election were to happen today, Cramer would probably win, but November is pretty much 50/50. I don't think Heitkamp is at enough of a disadvantage to warrant a Tilt R rating in any case, certainly not when Heller and the AZ seat are still Tossups.

Yeah, AZ and NV should be at lean D and tilt D respectfully.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

Pushing ND to Tilt R is quite bold. You could certainly make an argument for it, but there's still not a lot of polling and I think time is on Heitkamp's side (she's a better campaigner than Cramer).

It is perfectly reasonable.

If the election were to happen today, Cramer would probably win, but November is pretty much 50/50. I don't think Heitkamp is at enough of a disadvantage to warrant a Tilt R rating in any case, certainly not when Heller and the AZ seat are still Tossups.

Yeah, AZ and NV should be at lean D and tilt D respectfully.

The only way Democrats are more likely to pickup Arizona than Nevada is in the unlikely circumstance of Joe Arpaio winning the nomination.

I feel like Sinema is significantly stronger than Rosen, and honestly I think both seats flip but I am of the strange opinion that I am more confident in AZ flipping than NV.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jeez what a joke.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1016398017576960000

ANOTHER Texas House Dem raising over a million.

That's my nominee yeah!!

There is also a good chance that my precinct and a few others in the area will be holding a meet and greet for Allred in the next couple of months. A group of people is coordinating this stuff with a few precinct captains.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So Bagel types are not just sitting around, they are organizing, donating, and getting pledged votes in addition to others who are even involved much more.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So Bagel types are not just sitting around, they are organizing, donating, and getting pledged votes in addition to others who are even involved much more.

There is such a thing as Bagel types?

I meant suburban dems in contested areas.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1017216114135314432

wow

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have to say, I was a bit worried when he said he wasn't going to fill up a PAC, but this is working out very nicely. Even more excited to hear he is investing bigly in GOTV and forgoing the usual consultant-driven money bonfire via TV ads.

Beto

I might be going to a rally for him on monday, I am excited if so.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

GA-6 and GA-7 fundraising numbers for May-June.  Source

GA-6:

Karen Handel (R, incumbent): $278K raised, $1M cash on hand
Kevin Abel (D): $241K raised, $138K COH
Lucy McBath (D): $207K raised, $141K COH

GA-7:

Rob Woodall (R, incumbent): not filed yet
Carolyn Bourdeaux (D): $312K raised, $98K COH
David Kim (D): $34K raised, $441K loaned by Kim to his campaign, $86K COH

I'm surprised at Kim's low fundraising number.

Damn, those numbers don't look too good. At least in comparison to a slew of other competitive seat Democratic candidates.

How come there are two Democrats for each? Are they in the primary runoff?

I think most Dems have lost interest in Atlanta after Ossoff flopped last year.  This could change dramatically in 2020 if they notch a statewide win this fall, but for now, there are greener pastures for Dem spending.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/1018170461480505346?s=19

I imagine Sessions has pretty substantial cash on hand, though

Sessions will probably spend more, but Allred will also have the resources he needs to compete.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Awful fundraising numbers for Dana Rohrabacher:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1018596787735711746

Wow... that's atrocious for Tyrone, especially in that expensive part of the CA media market, he might actually blow this.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Am I the only one who thinks that the GOP would have been much better off in this district rn if they lined up behind Scott Baugh?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez raised over $500 K in just 3 weeks:

https://twitter.com/derekwillis/status/1018637339273449474

WHY??? Why the eff would people throw half a million plus on her?! In case it ain't obvious, SHE IS ALREADY WINNING the damn district! Knowing her, she will probably keep most of it too... Our bros and sis' in other districts like Kelly and Craig need this kind of cash, so shame on those people throwing it away on Ocasio Cortez.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Potentially threatened incumbent Democratic out raises opponent 5-1:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1018718026336800771  

Peterson was never going to lose barring some scandal or a red tidal wave.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wallace is a real bummer, really turned out to be a null D tier candidate, I was expecting him to be a B+ or A-.  I think I'm ready to move Fitzpatrick from pure tossup to Lean R. He can't breath easy, but at least now he can breath.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Looks like, in terms of raw contributions, Fitzpatrick ended up outraising Wallace in PA-01, with Wallace raising $303,938.61 and Fitzpatrick raising $424,739.53. Wallace is really shaping up to be one of the weakest challengers of the cycle.

Yeah, I called that on primary day. He basically bought the nomination. The probable wave is the only thing keeping his candidacy afloat.

Isn't he considerably wealthy? He could and might just end up cutting himself a check. Cisneros also brought in a pretty weak sum, but I imagine he will just end up self-funding the rest. He definitely has the money to fund his campaign 20 times over.

No disagreement from me about Wallace's overall strength as a candidate, though.

I mean yes, the wave and a cash dump will help these tigten a bit, but you can't just buy elections most of the time, Kim and Fitzpatrick are very strong and it will take more than a cash flush to deny them seats.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

28 Democrats in those 32 districts have raised over $1 million.  These are other Democrats in states that have held primaries who have raised over $1 million. (I also left out the Georgia 7th district)

Unfortunately opensecrets.org has a problem transitioning from Special Elections, so I don't know what's gone on in any district that has held a special election this cycle.

1.California 10, Jeff Denham, $3,444,695, Josh Harder, 2,519,983
2.California 21, David Valadao, 2,300,633, T.J Cox, 1,320,049
3.California 32, Devin Nunes, 7,379,364, Andrew Janz, 2,847,975
4.California 45, Mimi Walters, 2,926,804, Katie Porter, 2,067,985
5.Colorado 6, Mike Coffman, 2,362,516, Jason Crow, 2,255,792
6.Illinois 6, Pete Roskam, 4,389,553, Sean Casten, 2,015,336
7.Illinois 12, Mike Bost, 1,903,753, Brandon Kelly, 1,778,360
8.Illinois 13, Rodney Davis, 2,368,640, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, 1,341,611
9.Illinois 14, Randy Hultgren, 1,432,423, Lauren Underwood, 1,127,586
10.Indiana 2, Jackie Walorski, 2,056,968, Mel Hall, 1,417,941
11.Indiana 9, Trey Hollingsworth, 1,116,720, Liz Watson, 1,059,037
12.Iowa, 3, David Young, 1,704,881, Cindy Axne, 1,069,118
13.Kentucky 6, Andy Barr, 3,147,866, Amy McGrath, 3,017,831
14.Maine 1, Bruce Poliquin, 2,998,396, Jared Golden, 1,174,196
15.New Jersey 3, Tom McCarthur, 2,346,449, Andy Kim, 2,154,107
16.New York 1, Lee Zeldin, 3,027,393, Perry Gershon, 2,192,508
17.New York 22, Claudia Tenney, 1,936,988, Anthony Brindisi, 1,934,672
18.Ohio 14, David Joyce, 1,557,010, Betsy Rader, 1,028,633
19.Texas 23, Will Hurd, 3,049,456, Gina Ortiz-Jones, 2,251,293
20.Texas 32, Pete Sessions, 2,744,974, Colin Allred, 1,912,400
21.Utah 4, Mia Love, 3,294,307, Ben McAdams, 1,677,141
22.Virginia 2, Scott Taylor, 2,716,309, Elaine Luria, 1,318,067
23.Virginia 10, Barbara Comstock, 3,798,392, Jennifer Wexton, 1,929,620
  
So, this is a total of 51 Democrats who have raised over $1,000,000 excluding the states where the primaries have not yet been held.  (Except for Michigan 8, Minnesota 2 and Wisconsin 6 where the Democratic nominee seems to be pretty certain.)

D@mnit, he needed to try harder.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

28 Democrats in those 32 districts have raised over $1 million.  These are other Democrats in states that have held primaries who have raised over $1 million. (I also left out the Georgia 7th district)

Unfortunately opensecrets.org has a problem transitioning from Special Elections, so I don't know what's gone on in any district that has held a special election this cycle.

1.California 10, Jeff Denham, $3,444,695, Josh Harder, 2,519,983
2.California 21, David Valadao, 2,300,633, T.J Cox, 1,320,049
3.California 32, Devin Nunes, 7,379,364, Andrew Janz, 2,847,975
4.California 45, Mimi Walters, 2,926,804, Katie Porter, 2,067,985
5.Colorado 6, Mike Coffman, 2,362,516, Jason Crow, 2,255,792
6.Illinois 6, Pete Roskam, 4,389,553, Sean Casten, 2,015,336
7.Illinois 12, Mike Bost, 1,903,753, Brandon Kelly, 1,778,360
8.Illinois 13, Rodney Davis, 2,368,640, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, 1,341,611
9.Illinois 14, Randy Hultgren, 1,432,423, Lauren Underwood, 1,127,586
10.Indiana 2, Jackie Walorski, 2,056,968, Mel Hall, 1,417,941
11.Indiana 9, Trey Hollingsworth, 1,116,720, Liz Watson, 1,059,037
12.Iowa, 3, David Young, 1,704,881, Cindy Axne, 1,069,118
13.Kentucky 6, Andy Barr, 3,147,866, Amy McGrath, 3,017,831
14.Maine 1, Bruce Poliquin, 2,998,396, Jared Golden, 1,174,196
15.New Jersey 3, Tom McCarthur, 2,346,449, Andy Kim, 2,154,107
16.New York 1, Lee Zeldin, 3,027,393, Perry Gershon, 2,192,508
17.New York 22, Claudia Tenney, 1,936,988, Anthony Brindisi, 1,934,672
18.Ohio 14, David Joyce, 1,557,010, Betsy Rader, 1,028,633
19.Texas 23, Will Hurd, 3,049,456, Gina Ortiz-Jones, 2,251,293
20.Texas 32, Pete Sessions, 2,744,974, Colin Allred, 1,912,400
21.Utah 4, Mia Love, 3,294,307, Ben McAdams, 1,677,141
22.Virginia 2, Scott Taylor, 2,716,309, Elaine Luria, 1,318,067
23.Virginia 10, Barbara Comstock, 3,798,392, Jennifer Wexton, 1,929,620
  
So, this is a total of 51 Democrats who have raised over $1,000,000 excluding the states where the primaries have not yet been held.  (Except for Michigan 8, Minnesota 2 and Wisconsin 6 where the Democratic nominee seems to be pretty certain.)

D@mnit, he needed to try harder.

Looks like none of you got it so I will have to extra emphasize it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So the Dems unveiled their new slogan for November: “For the people” https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/18/house-democrats-midterms-campaign-slogan-730907I

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rating changes on Sabato:

AR-02 (Hill): Likely R > Lean R
FL-13 (Crist): Likely D > Safe D
FL-16 (Buchanan): Likely R > Lean R
IA-03 (Young): Lean R > Tossup
IA-04 (King): Safe R > Likely R
IL-06 (Roskam): Lean R > Tossup
IN-02 (Walorski): Safe R > Likely R
IN-09 (Hollingsworth): Safe R > Likely R
KY-06 (Barr): Lean R > Tossup
MI-08 (Bishop): Lean R > Tossup
NM-02 (Open): Likely R > Lean R
OH-01 (Chabot): Lean R > Tossup
OH-12 Special: Lean R > Tossup
PA-16 (Kelly): Safe R > Likely R
TX-07 (Culberson): Lean R > Tossup
TX-31 (Carter): Safe R > Likely R
WV-03 (Open): Lean R > Tossup

There are now 34 Republican held tossups and 2 Democratic held tossups. GOP is favoured in 200 seats and the Dems are favoured in 199.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-tilts-toward-the-democrats/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Crystal_Ball+%28Larry+J.+Sabato%27s+Crystal+Ball%29

wow

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is a really bad map.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is a really bad map.

how?

For starters the GOP is much more likely to lose KS 2, TX 32, TX 7, and NJ 3 to the dems than them losing Katko and Valadao lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He's got a strong opponent and tariffs are an especially big issue there compared to other Iowa districts. Seems like we good call for now.