OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys I highly recommend staying away as much as possible from the predictit comment section for Ohio 12th special election by party, it is completely toxic.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys I highly recommend staying away as much as possible from the predictit comment section for Ohio 12th special election by party, it is completely toxic.

We learned to do that a LONG time ago.

Yall thought I was bad, you aint seen nothing yet until the predictit comment sections.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So what are we thinking?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So what are we thinking?

We think it's early.

-_-

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh god, not the needle...

I don't see it online.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh god, not the needle...

I don't see it online.

its paper

Oh jesus.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

We had candidates who would be leading by 5 or 6.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Impressive result, we are winning the house this fall.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, I am throughly impressed. And you know it is hard to impress me, who y'all think for some reason am a Limo 2.0. This and you all have convinced me of the house flipping this fall. Good on O'Connor for a decent run. This was winnable, but still a decent effort by a mediocre candidate. Heavily outspent too, this was no easy cakewalk, and only bodes well for this fall.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am no sissy like Saccone, so I'm not afraid to concede, congrats to congressman-elect Balderson, and lets go win the house this fall!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, Balderson won fair and square. Let's not be like Saccone and Moore, focus on the fall and win the darn house!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, Balderson won fair and square. Let's not be like Saccone and Moore, focus on the fall and win the darn house!

What are you on about? People are just speculating how the provisionals will break, it's not like they're getting their pitchforks and are about to storm the OH SoS office.

O'Connor refuses to concede but it's over.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, we needa learn how to take an L.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, Balderson won fair and square. Let's not be like Saccone and Moore, focus on the fall and win the darn house!

Look Bagel----

I'll be unusually blunt which is not my typical style.

Your "Election Analysis" on this thread quite frankly sucks, and has added 0% to the overall conversation, regardless of Partisan affiliation on the part of the vast majority of Atlas posters on the thread.

Sure, I'll give my PUB knowledgeable contributors the credit that the current evidence appears that Balderson won narrowly.

Still, you seem to forget the basic data, and neglect the fundamental point that the OH State Gvt has been systematically finding various ways of disenfranchising legit voters as part of a systematic effort to control of the levers of POWER within the great state of Ohio.

The slippery weasels essentially put ~ 5% of the entire voting population of OH CD-12 SE into a "Provisional Voting" category, and now you are bending down and worshiping at the altar of "Free and Fair elections"....

Call me confused as a former Resident of the Buckeye State?

I may have been a little off in the margin, but I picked the right candidate.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Frankly good results for Cordray this fall.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, we needa learn how to take an L.

We are, this is visibly less painful for Atlas Democrats compared to the Ossoff loss a little over a year ago. It’s a lot easier to take it on the chin when we have so many indicators pointing to a favorable midterm environment and Republicans barely clinching a race that shouldn’t have been competitive. I think you’re overreacting a bit.

Bagel seems like he drinks too much caffeine and/or takes too much adderall around election time lol

I don't really see many people unable to accept a loss. I see a lot of people correctly stating or in some way acknowledging that losing by <1 point in a R+7 / T+11 and historically R district is not the same as a win but still informative that Ds are finally going to get a very good midterm and regain some power in DC. I also see the usual posters trying to move the goal posts and act as if this race is supposed to be competitive in the first place.

I've never had dexies or pep pills, and I have not intentionally drank caffeine for over 3 weeks.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol, my dad still thinks O'Connor still has a chance and I told him that Balderson is winning the end.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, Franklin was like only 30% of the results overall, that explains a lot...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, Franklin was like only 30% of the results overall, that explains a lot...

It was 35%; considerably above what it is in normal elections.

Oh oops, sorry you are right, my mental math is rusty, ignore my previous post.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol, my dad still thinks O'Connor still has a chance and I told him that Balderson is winning the end.

Did you place any online bets with your old Man just like some of us might place on the Horse Tracks of  Scioto Downs in South Franklin?      

Personally if I were still a betting Man I would definitely bet that Balderson will win at the end as an "Odds Bet", but still I can see his perspective as well since if there is a 33% chance O'Connor might Win for example then in the event you lose he gets an extra gain....

Regardless, I'll try to pull a few numbers together tonight based upon the 99% of the Confirmed (Non-Provisional Vote)....

Nah, we did not bet on it. I mean at the end of the day I really think only 5-6k of those ballots will even be included in the final total anyways, so I won't peg a number so I don't get moderated for trolling or whatnot, but I would say O'Connor's odds at this point are rather paltry. He just got out of surgery and was really tired and on all sorts of medicine when he made that prediction so he may not have been thinking like his normal self, but he is overly optimistic for dems too. That sounds good, it'd be interesting to see the results which are similar by percent as many previous races, but the geography of the votes of then vs now probably looks entirely different.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Based on tonight's results ... who is the favorite in November (taking into account how turnout may be different in November)?

Troy Not So Bald erson.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Both Manchin and Ojeda would have beaten Balderson.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CNN actually had a good article on the outcome of this race and did not scream red wave:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/08/politics/balderson-trump-2018/index.html

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Connor, be a man and concede already.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Connor, be a man and concede already.

He doesn’t need to concede when there are more than 4x the ballots outstanding than the margin.

Wanna a bet (no money just bragging rights) of who you think is gonna win? I feel pretty confident about The Son Of Balder.