VA-SEN 2018: Which Republican can beat Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.)?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nobody. Only one that would make it even a little competetive is Gillespie, and would probably still get smacked at 53-44.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I happened to notice that counties such as Fairfax and Loudoun have turnout around 80% whereas the rural couties in western Virginia have around 50%.  Considering that this is an off year and Stewart has a home county advantage, he could very well pull it off if he turns out the rural areas and gains support in Prince William county as well as Loudoun.  It also depends on what Tim Kaine says or does over the next two years.  Even northern Virginians are VERY protective of the confederate monuments.  It is very unwise for any democrat to go against them as Northam and McAuliffe already have.

It's possible, but still likely D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I happened to notice that counties such as Fairfax and Loudoun have turnout around 80% whereas the rural couties in western Virginia have around 50%.  Considering that this is an off year and Stewart has a home county advantage, he could very well pull it off if he turns out the rural areas and gains support in Prince William county as well as Loudoun.  It also depends on what Tim Kaine says or does over the next two years.  Even northern Virginians are VERY protective of the confederate monuments.  It is very unwise for any democrat to go against them as Northam and McAuliffe already have.

Ah yes, Corey Stewart will make big gains in prince William due to home advantage, just like how trump did very well in New York City..../s

Considering Obama got 63% percent and Hillary got 59%, I'd say Trump improved in NY.  Also, remember that Virginia has not had a majority winner for governor or senator since 2012. All the wins since then have been pluralities. Also, this is likely to play out like the Georgia special election with max turnout everywhere. As for Northern Virginia not caring ablut confederate monuments, I live up here and even the liberal minorities here stand up for them. We all went into election night thinking Warner was going to win by 20 points or so. Kaine is not nearly as popular as Warner.  Warner won all but 6 out of hundreds of localities in VA, Kaine only won The typical democrat localities plus VA Beach.

Upstate NY is where Trump made his gains, not NYC.

His gains in Suffolk, Staten Island, etc. should not be ignored.