AL-SEN 2017 predictions?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Safe R, Strange wins after a runoff with Moore, and faces down either Kennedy or Jones, and wins 56-40 vs Kennedy, and 55-43 vs Jones.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kennedy is going to be the first black senator!!!!

There have already been black senators from around the country, now if you are talking about Alabama, this would be the first, if he won, and regardless of any primary outcome, this is Safe R, and best case scenario for dems with Moore vs Jones, Likely R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

(Bump)

GOP primary:
36.8% Moore
32.4% Strange
19.4% Brooks
11.4% Others

GOP runoff:
51% Moore
49% Strange

Moore & Strange advance to a runoff, which Moore wins narrowly b/c it's hard to see how Strange gets 50% in a runoff if he comes in 2nd place DESPITE the Trump endorsement & the millions already spent bet. McConnell/Trump PACs. Plus, he has really angered Brooks' supporters w/ the never ending attack ads (funded by McConnell, of course), so Brooks voters either stay home or vote Moore in the runoff.

FWIW, this race gets interesting when Moore gets the nomination. National Republicans will either have to support a relic to social conservatism they're trying to distance themselves from or abandon their candidate like they did w/ Todd Akin, but Moore doesn't need national Republican support to win. Yes, he'll be ostracized in the Senate, but he has already been elected statewide before.



DEM primary:
47.4% Jones
33.2% Kennedy
19.4% Others

DEM runoff:
61.9% Jones
38.1% Kennedy

Jones wins the runoff easily & proceeds to the general, & he'll have some value if he can present himself as a Joe Manchin-type & refrain from criticizing Trump, but...



General election:
56% Moore
44% Jones

...Jones isn't the new Scott Brown (&, again, Moore doesn't need national Republican support to win). He won't win, but it'll be relatively close for a state Trump won by 28 points (& the home state of George Wallace), though probably still a >10 point win.

No doubt Jones loses, but if it by a respectable margin, he could be a decent recruit for Alabama Attorney General... who knows, maybe he could be Alabama's Jim Hood... probably not, but the lower state-wide offices are a tiny more flexible than the upper ones, anyways, he would be the best shot we have. He has like a 4% chance in this race (being quite generous here), but for attorney general of Alabama, I'd give him like 9%(probably even a bit higher).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone think it's odd Kennedy volunteers he interned for a Republican Rep...

For starters, he is a conservadem, so they would most likely coexist fine, and also, a lot of people take political internships with preference of people of their own political party, but will still take an opposing one if that's the only option. I know of a person or two like that. Heck, if I was offered an internship by a decent Republican (or really most any of them) I would take it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My FINAL Prediction for the GOP runoff tomorrow.

Moore:56
Strange:44

Strange does well in Birmingham area, and does mediocre, not even that ok, in Mobile and Baldwin, and does OK in Northern Brooks area and near Huntsville. Besides that, he will probably get obliterated elsewhere, with a few small strongholds scattered here and there.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My FINAL Prediction for the GOP runoff tomorrow.

Moore:56
Strange:44

Strange does well in Birmingham area, and does mediocre, not even that ok, in Mobile and Baldwin, and does OK in Northern Brooks area and near Huntsville. Besides that, he will probably get obliterated elsewhere, with a few small strongholds scattered here and there.

Darn, I'm pretty decent.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

52-45 Moore wins.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Final prediction.

Moore:53

Doug:45

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sticking to something around this. Though i wouldn't be surprised if Moore won by more then i showed

Overall ok, but under what scenario on God's green earth would Doug carry Autauga and Elmore and at the same time lose Madison? I cannot get over that.