WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My bro Joe does not hold back in his campaign emails:



I did not want my full name on here, but yall already know my first name.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It's not like there's any real difference between having Blankenship or Jenkins in the Senate either way.  They'd still vote for 99% of the same sh**t sandwich. Might as well root for the weakest opponent in the primary.

I'm sure someone will respond to this post by saying something like "This is MORALLY appalling" or something or other. Whatever. I'd rather Manchin have an 80% chance at keeping his job by facing a murderer than have a 50% chance against someone whose views are just the same as Blankenship's.

I mean Manchin still have a mid digit to low double digit edge on Morrissey, and a couple points on Jenkins. But yeah, I get it. I too want Blankensh!t in the primaries.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Great to have wonderful Senator Doug Jones of Alabama endorse Joe Manchin for reelection!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jenkins has a new ad out, trying to make the Senate race about Hillary Clinton and throwing in some strong dog-whistles in there too and how liberals will 'take our guns'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2zpd1K12Fc&feature=youtu.be

If this is all he's got, I remain confident Manchin would win against him, luckily, Jenkins probably won't be the nominee, as he is still the scariest GE threat to Joe by far.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This thing is starting to look better and better for Manchin so far.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have an interesting question: what county do you think Manchin will do the worst in compared to Clinton? I.e, what county will he improve on HRC the least.

My guess would have to be Monogalia. though obviously he vastly over performs Hillary in every single county including this one too. Still, he really will turn off the college campus in the area, and the mountain candidate (if there is one is gonna get 6-7% of the vote there). Either way, turnout is probably going to suck there for dems, and I think this will be his worst improvement. I still think he will narrowly carry the county though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Morrisey misspelled West Virginia in his own TV ad, what an idiot!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Total idiot.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why are ads in WV so bad?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vIgXVoa9bo

Jesus. Hope no one with epilepsy was watching.

Pretty decent ad besides that though, Jenkins must be stopped in the primary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Am I the only one a bit concerned about Manchin’s so-so fundraising? I know he’s got plenty of COH but I hope his heart is in the race.

You are not alone.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can we change the stupid title for this thread when Manchin (figuratively) disfigures and beats Swearingen to a pulp? I mean he may very well lose this cycle, but it definitely won't be in the primary against that clown.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can we change the stupid title for this thread when Manchin (figuratively) disfigures and beats Swearingen to a pulp? I mean he may very well lose this cycle, but it definitely won't be in the primary against that clown.

Why do you think she is a clown?
She's a long shot, but she's an incredible woman, and is fighting the good fight.

Bagel wants to beat women confirmed.

A. I explicitly stated that it was figurative, you are a shameless and blatant liar.

B. It has nothing to do with Swearingen being a women, nice try though. There are plenty of idiots that are men such as Franken before he resigned, Bill Jefferson, Anthony Weiner, John Edwards, and many more of whom I would wish the same, ALL figurative of course, as I have stated here, and in the original post.

C. Actually grow up and learn how to handle being on the losing end without acting like a distracting and lying wimp. I admit, Manchin might get beaten (do I really need to state the obvious and say figuratively here too?) this november, but I sure as heck won't be pouting, lying, distracting, and defaming opponents because of it. Utterly ridiculous.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Also, in a field where around 23% of officeholders are female, my main endorsements are roughly 33% female, so again, blatant lies.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can we change the stupid title for this thread when Manchin (figuratively) disfigures and beats Swearingen to a pulp? I mean he may very well lose this cycle, but it definitely won't be in the primary against that clown.

Why do you think she is a clown?
She's a long shot, but she's an incredible woman, and is fighting the good fight.

Her policies are wrong for West Virginia, she has no good experience, her fundraising is terrible, and she hates my favorite senator. She is even beyond a long shot. I think I will have to disagree with those last two statements.

Thank you though for engaging in civil discourse and actually sticking to the politics instead of getting personal like others, it is a good thing.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can we change the stupid title for this thread when Manchin (figuratively) disfigures and beats Swearingen to a pulp? I mean he may very well lose this cycle, but it definitely won't be in the primary against that clown.

Why do you think she is a clown?
She's a long shot, but she's an incredible woman, and is fighting the good fight.

Bagel wants to beat women confirmed.

A. I explicitly stated that it was figurative, you are a shameless and blatant liar.

B. It has nothing to do with Swearingen being a women, nice try though. There are plenty of idiots that are men such as Franken before he resigned, Bill Jefferson, Anthony Weiner, John Edwards, and many more of whom I would wish the same, ALL figurative of course, as I have stated here, and in the original post.

C. Actually grow up and learn how to handle being on the losing end without acting like a distracting and lying wimp. I admit, Manchin might get beaten (do I really need to state the obvious and say figuratively here too?) this november, but I sure as heck won't be pouting, lying, distracting, and defaming opponents because of it. Utterly ridiculous.

Bagel imagined beating women, confirmed.

A. Figuratively, not literally in any sense so cut the crap

B. Even if you were right, (which you are not, you are fake news), it is singular, not plural. I was talking about one person in that post, not multiple people. Such baloney and bird droppings coming out of their mouths...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Blankenship releases ad calling McConnell 'cocaine Mitch'

"Politicians are runnin a lot of crazy ads. They blew up the coal mine. And put me in prison. Now they're running ads saying that the coal mine blew up, and I went to prison. There's no surprise there. But if you want jobs, if you want to end the drug epidemic, and you want to protect the unborn, you need to vote for me. One of my goals as US senator will be to ditch Cocaine Mitch. When you vote for me you're voting for the sake of the kids."

This man is a absolute treat.

Lol, too bad he probably won't be the nominee.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jenkins slams Morrissey's ties to president Hillary Clinton:

Is this even legal?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully some bad news for Jenkins here. His congressional district compromises well over 32% of the state's population, and yet just slightly over 26% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from his district in the primary so far. Hopefully this follows the narrative that a lot of the Jenkins base are registered democrats, of whom those democrats, few to none could vote for him in a primary. Let's hope this narrative is true, but the numbers are encouraging so far. Here is a doc I found with results updated on the morning of the 4th of May 2018:

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/7130e4ce-e174-4f99-83d6-0e794c89961e/P18_EV_Abs_050418.pdf

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully some bad news for Jenkins here. His congressional district compromises well over 32% of the state's population, and yet just slightly over 26% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from his district in the primary so far. Hopefully this follows the narrative that a lot of the Jenkins base are registered democrats, of whom those democrats, few to none could vote for him in a primary. Let's hope this narrative is true, but the numbers are encouraging so far. Here is a doc I found with results updated on the morning of the 4th of May 2018:

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/7130e4ce-e174-4f99-83d6-0e794c89961e/P18_EV_Abs_050418.pdf

Promising so far, but keep in mind there's only 50,000 votes so far. In 2014, there were 219,510 votes total in the primaries. I'd expect around 230,000 people to vote in the 2018 primaries.

That is why I keep saying hope and hopefully and saying that I wish the narrative is true and that it holds up, I am not calling anything by far lol. I am just saying that this is a shred of good news for us Team Manchiners, and that my guess is that Morrisey narrowly wins the primary, but it is too early to call anything yet.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, if the enthusiasm gap is evident even in WV of all states, it would be one of the worst signs for Republicans yet (they can probably kiss the Senate goodbye in that case). Also becoming more and more convinced that Jenkins will lose the primary.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully some bad news for Jenkins here. His congressional district compromises well over 32% of the state's population, and yet just slightly over 26% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from his district in the primary so far. Hopefully this follows the narrative that a lot of the Jenkins base are registered democrats, of whom those democrats, few to none could vote for him in a primary. Let's hope this narrative is true, but the numbers are encouraging so far. Here is a doc I found with results updated on the morning of the 4th of May 2018:

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/7130e4ce-e174-4f99-83d6-0e794c89961e/P18_EV_Abs_050418.pdf

Promising so far, but keep in mind there's only 50,000 votes so far. In 2014, there were 219,510 votes total in the primaries. I'd expect around 230,000 people to vote in the 2018 primaries.

That is why I keep saying hope and hopefully and saying that I wish the narrative is true and that it holds up, I am not calling anything by far lol. I am just saying that this is a shred of good news for us Team Manchiners, and that my guess is that Morrisey narrowly wins the primary, but it is too early to call anything yet.

I don't think this is going to be close enough to come down to Jenkins being a better candidate than Morrisey.  It's likely to either be Manchin winning or losing by 7-15%.  The Trump Dems either come home for him or they don't.

Even if he lost by 15 points, that would still be bringing a giant amount of Trump voters home, none the less, Jenkins would have a much better chance of holding onto Trump dems in southern WV.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Blankenship is making an 11th hour push, bombarding the radios with over 100k worth of ads every day in the state for like the final few days, so I could see him gain a bit, but I doubt he wins.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully those terrible GOP turnout numbers in WV 3rd keep down, as to harm Jenkins' chances.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Blankensh!t won't win, sorry.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Really hoping that candidate Bushie pulls it out and faces Manchin this November!

Who?