MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Man I gotta thank Crazy Greg for all that meme value he's blessed us with.

Crazy Greg looks like Jared Fogle's skinny uncle.

Jared Fogle visited my elementary school as a kid 0.0

I'd trust him more than Drumpf around children.

I remember he carried around the 60 inch waisted jeans he used to wear so all the kids could see. Kinda creepy looking back on it.

And the footlong too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ok, can someone throw out a rough estimate then of how many votes are left to be cast and turned in?

DDHQ says 257,782 absentees have been returned so far.  According to the Montana SoS, there were 694,730 Montana registered voters in 2016.  That means about 37% of the 2016 registered voters have voted so far.  There could be more or fewer registered voters now, but I doubt that will change the percentage much.

Thank you.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can we get back on topic and stop arguing over which side is more violent?

Yeah. As someone who has been targeted (albeit in a relatively minor way compared to some of the other things mentioned - rock thrown through the window of a campaign office) by political violence, "who is more violent" is not the issue. The act(s) of violence themselves are the issue. Arguing about it in a partisan way is sort of pathetic, and shows that you are not actually taking it seriously.

If Quist, and that's a big if, manages to pull an upset tomorrow night, he should buy a thank you card and cake for Wicks.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gianforte essentially pulled a "marty on the election atlas forum", except his meltdown happened irl.

Your beliefs definitely don't align with mine, but I seriously doubt you are that bad of a person.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

-_-. If we lose tommorow, I'm blaming it on all these knaves who think just because they got a little advantage, they can swoop in like a hotshot, and claim victory before we even see results. I thought we have already learnt from 2016 about the dangers of this...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

-_-. If we lose tommorow, I'm blaming it on all these knaves who think just because they got a little advantage, they can swoop in like a hotshot, and claim victory before we even see results. I thought we have already learnt from 2016 about the dangers of this...

I don't live in Montana or work for Rob Quist's campaign.

Anyhow my comment was implying that I find it too hard to believe that he could actually win on this platform. I'm still not sure if he'll win. Guess we'll see tomorrow.

You literally said you cannot believe that Quist will win Montana tomorrow. Not much room to Kellyanne your way out of it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I can't believe a fully fledged Berniecrat (based on what I've read on his policy positions) is gonna win a House seat in Montana.

-_-. If we lose tommorow, I'm blaming it on all these knaves who think just because they got a little advantage, they can swoop in like a hotshot, and claim victory before we even see results. I thought we have already learnt from 2016 about the dangers of this...

I don't live in Montana or work for Rob Quist's campaign.

Anyhow my comment was implying that I find it too hard to believe that he could actually win on this platform. I'm still not sure if he'll win. Guess we'll see tomorrow.

You literally said you cannot believe that Quist will win Montana tomorrow. Not much room to Kellyanne your way out of it.

I probably should've rephrased my original comment, yes. But my final point still stands.

Fair enough.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Quist has just taken the lead on predict it. Don't know how long it will last for, but it did occur!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The Billings Gazette has retracted their endorsement of Gianforte.

And The Missoulian too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Well, as a liberal that sucked to watch. That was over embarrassingly early. RIP Quist, thank you for giving it your all. While I thought Quist would win, I knew Gianforte could for sure also win. But at least I was right that it was not by some ridiculous 14 point margin either way.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Who else has a feeling that Tester will lose in 2018?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Quist should run again in 2018.

I'm guessing you are a republican.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think we are going to lose this country to the GOP as well as the alt-right, oh well, we tried... let's just call it a day, they won.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The only thing that could make this night more embarrassing is if Gianforte wins Big Horn county. I doubt he will, but if he does...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

But honestly, the most shocking result has got to be Yellowstone County. Not only did it vote 12 points to the right of the state, but the gap between Yellowstone and Missoula has never been wider than that. Insane.

As soon as I saw those results from Yellowstone, I knew Quist was toast. Even with just 15% in, there was no way to catch up with that.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Quist did ok, people are looking way too much into this race. I mean a pot smoking hippie with herpes and unpaid medical bills basically lost by 6%

More, and his oponent was pretty weak too. Had it been just an average Joe GOP member, this would have been in the low double digets.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It was too late in the game to matter. It'll be old news by 2018. I don't see how this endangers Tester, though, at the rate we're going.

Tester was already in a tilt D to tossup scenario. The results from tonight just make me even more nervous as a democrat. I've moved it to pure tossup, and seriously thinking about tilt R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

But honestly, the most shocking result has got to be Yellowstone County. Not only did it vote 12 points to the right of the state, but the gap between Yellowstone and Missoula has never been wider than that. Insane.

As soon as I saw those results from Yellowstone, I knew Quist was toast. Even with just 15% in, there was no way to catch up with that.

Yeah, I thought he would close the gap with the election day vote coming in, but no... Also, like you said, if Gianforte actually wins Big Horn, it will be quite a story. I think Quist will carry it in the end, though.

Yeah probably. I did not think he would close the gap on election day barely at all. I thought his path to victory was to have a great EV lead, and pin down Gianforte with Wicks on the election day vote, and hold him off to pull off a close one, and when I saw that the EV was tied if not slight PF, I gave up hope. I was too distraught and choking up on my liberal tears to get on here while this was unfolding. But I've come to terms with it now...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hahahaha!


The party of  'voter rights' is trying to cancel the election! Not the way it works!

Link


DCCC chair Rep. Lujan: "Greg Gianforte is unfit to represent MT. There’s no question in my mind Gianforte should not be sworn into office."

Unfortunately you got a point. As much as it pains me to say, PF won fair and square.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What's up with Glacier county?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

There's still GA-06, where I see the chances for Ossoff as high as never before ...

KS and MT were simply too Trumpist.

Yeah, it's a miracle that Bullock survived.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It was too late in the game to matter. It'll be old news by 2018. I don't see how this endangers Tester, though, at the rate we're going.

Tester was already in a tilt D to tossup scenario. The results from tonight just make me even more nervous as a democrat. I've moved it to pure tossup, and seriously thinking about tilt R.

I'm more interested in North Dakota, actually. I have it in the "Likely D" column right now (it's the red state that I believe will be most difficult for the GOP to flip), but I think I'm being too generous to Heitkamp. And no, I'm not saying this because of the results of this election, but with this astonishingly high level of partisanship and polarization...

I'm not even slightly interested in ND. I think it's a lost cause, and likely R, just another loss we will likely have to endure.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sorry for the dublicate posts everyone, I was having wifi troubles.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Seriously, why hasn't glacier county reported?