2018 Senate Rankings

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Very good job! I agree with basically all of it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My thoughts as of now

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My thoughts as of now

Virginia ain't "Likely" D LOL.

I am a little more cautious than most, Kaine still wins in the end though (probably).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, this is interesting... Not that Brown is likely to lose, but he is comparatively a lot more likely to lose than Tina Smith lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LTE's july update is quite interesting:

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
7/10/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT
MS-Special
TX (Likely R >> Safe R) Polling looks great for Cruz.

Likely R:
ND (Lean R >> Likely R) Heitkamp's standing looks disastrous in recent polling.
TN (Lean R >> Likely R) Trump's incredible appeal in this state will overcome Bredesen's.

Lean R:
MO
IN
FL (Tilt R >> Lean R) Nelson is getting hammered in ads while Scott continues his record fundraising and campaigning. Scott's strength with Latinos is further cementing this flip.

Tilt R:
MT
NV (Tossup >> Tilt R) Rosen keeps burning money on ads but can't seem to raise her recognition in the state as disastrous details about her business experience come to light.

Tossup:
AZ
WV

Tilt D:  
WI

Lean D:
OH
NJ

Likely D:
MI
VA
PA
MN-Special (Lean D >> Likely D) National Rs don't seem to be making a play here, and MN is not a Trump state.

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
Nothing here.

Safe I:
VT
ME (Likely I >> Safe I) King's challengers are weak sauce.

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 55 Republicans, 41 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 2 Tossups.

Democrats pick up nothing, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and Florida.

I am a tad more omptimistic than this, but I agree with this more than almost all the other predictions on here, job well done.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
7/10/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT
MS-Special
TX (Likely R >> Safe R) Polling looks great for Cruz.

Likely R:
ND (Lean R >> Likely R) Heitkamp's standing looks disastrous in recent polling.
TN (Lean R >> Likely R) Trump's incredible appeal in this state will overcome Bredesen's.

Lean R:
MO
IN
FL (Tilt R >> Lean R) Nelson is getting hammered in ads while Scott continues his record fundraising and campaigning. Scott's strength with Latinos is further cementing this flip.

Tilt R:
MT
NV (Tossup >> Tilt R) Rosen keeps burning money on ads but can't seem to raise her recognition in the state as disastrous details about her business experience come to light.

Tossup:
AZ
WV

Tilt D:  
WI

Lean D:
OH
NJ

Likely D:
MI
VA
PA
MN-Special (Lean D >> Likely D) National Rs don't seem to be making a play here, and MN is not a Trump state.

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
Nothing here.

Safe I:
VT
ME (Likely I >> Safe I) King's challengers are weak sauce.

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 55 Republicans, 41 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 2 Tossups.

Democrats pick up nothing, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and Florida.

I am a tad more omptimistic than this, but I agree with this more than almost all the other predictions on here, job well done.

Are you kidding me?

Well I guess you could make an argument to keep MN special senate election at Lean D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I haven't posted a full list of what I think in months...

Minnesota-Special: Safe D (I think Republicans are probably wishing Tim Pawlenty or Erik Paulsen to run here)

Mississippi- Special: Safe R (There is no scenario I can see where a Democrat, such as Mike Espy winning. Hyde Smith should be able to beat both Espy and Chris McDaniel, should she go up against him)

Arizona: Lean D (If McSally wins the nomination, this race moves to tossup...but I think either Ward or Arpaio wins the primary, thus handing the seat to the Democrats)

California: Safe D, Likely Feinstein (Now that De Leon has the California Democratic Party endorsement, his victory wouldn't stun me, but Feinstein is the clear favorite)

Connecticut: Safe D (Murphy isn't vulnerable)

Delaware: Safe D (Carper isn't vulnerable)

Florida: Tilt R (Rick Scott, given his wealth and his willingness to spend it is the strongest opponent that Bill Nelson has ever faced. It's very possible that this is the only seat Democrats lose on Election Night...especially given how incompetent the Florida Democratic Party is)

Hawaii: Safe D (Hirono is going to glide to re-election...though I still think she should have retired, given her recent Kidney Cancer)

Indiana: Tossup (Braun wasn't the strongest candidate running in the primary, and I would say that was Messer from a primary/General Election standpoint...however, Indiana is a very Republican state, and Braun should not be underestimated by any stretch. This race could go either way)

Maine: Lean I (I actually think Ranked Choice voting might hurt Angus King's chances slightly, and help Eric Brakey and Zak Ringlestein slightly. That said, I'd be surprised if King lost, but it's certainly possible. Given the political climate, he'd more likely lose to Ringlestein)

Maryland: Safe D (Cardin isn't in danger)

Massachusetts: Safe D (Warren isn't in danger, but she'll have to answer questions about whether or not she is running for President)

Michigan: Safe D (I know Trump carried Michigan, but Republicans had a major recruiting fail here. Calley or Schuette might have actually made this race competitive)

Minnesota: Safe D (Again, Republicans might have happier if Pawlenty or Paulsen were running here)

Mississippi: Safe R (David Baria isn't a bad candidate, but Democrats are very unlikely to win in Mississippi, especially against an incumbent)

Missouri: Tilt D (I think Hawley isn't the strongest candidate, but I'm not quite sure who, other than maybe Jay Ashcroft would work for Republicans)

Montana: Tilt D (Matthew Rosendale is a stronger candidate than people give him credit for, but Tester is still a narrow favorite)

Nebraska: Safe R (Deb Fischer isn't losing)

Nevada: Likely D (Dean Heller almost certainly is losing, barring a disaster. I expect to be able to have this race back at safe/titanium D by mid September)

New Jersey: Lean D (I think if Hillary had won, Mendendez would lose)

New Mexico: Safe D (Heinrich isn't losing)

New York: Safe D (Gillibrand isn't going anywhere)

North Dakota: Tossup (Heitkamp certainly could lose, and probably will if she doesn't vote for Kavanaugh, but it's not like Cramer is the perfect candidate-he's already in the Senate in the person of John Hoeven)

Ohio: Likely D (It's quickly becoming, whether Brown will bring Cordray over the line in the Governor's race)

Pennsylvania: Likely D (Casey is probably safe, but he needs huge margins in both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh that Hillary might not get)

Rhode Island: Safe D (I don't see how Whitehouse gets in any serious danger)

Tennessee: Tilt D (Bredesen is a narrow favorite right now, but don't rule out Blackburn yet)

Texas: Tilt D (I'm probably very high on Beto O'Rourke's chances, but Ted Cruz is really only liked by his core base. It's quite possible we see a lot of Abbott/O'Rourke crossover voters, allowing O'Rourke to win. No matter what, I would think O'Rourke likely loses in 2024)

Utah: Safe R (Mitt Romney is a legend in Utah. He'll break at least 80%)

Vermont: Safe I/D (Sanders is safe,  though he does face two primary challengers, at least one whom wanted to punish him for running against Clinton...)

Virginia: Safe D (With Corey Stewart as the nominee, Tim Kaine is going to win by at least twenty)

Washington: Safe D (I don't believe Cantwell will be in danger)

West Virginia: Tossup (If Manchin votes against Kavanaugh, which I don't believe he will, he loses. If he votes for Kavanaugh, the race is a tossup, but Manchin has a narrow edge)

Wisconsin: Safe D (Neither of Tammy Baldwin's opponents have the strength to take him down)

Wyoming: Safe R (There is no way Democrats have a chance in one of the most Republican states in the nation)

This is very weird.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

imgur.com/a/IewePIr

Not enough posts to include a picture :-(

I managed to include "tilts" in the 270towin map, so don't wonder about the colors.

cool man, how'd you make the tilt colors?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

SCHUYLKILL SCOTT LOSES.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

52-48 Dem Senate

Look, I get how you see TN as a GOP win, I do too, but really, safe R?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think it's time I updated my ratings:

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

Dem hack. You clearly learned nothing from 2016. Sad!

Lol that's my guess too, and I'm no dem prediction hack lmao.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LTE had the dems winning the senate today lmao.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think that Cramer must be considered the favorite to win in North Dakota.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LTE's updated prediction map of the senate made yesterday is a flaming collection of rooster droppings, I'm literally just a couple steps away from not watching his daily videos anymore and just watching his election night stuff because I still dig that cause he makes it well imo.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Firearm to head pushes as of today:

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin losing while Donnelly and McCaskill win? #analysis

Trump is not approved of enough to hurt Donnelly or McCaskill too badly in their states, but he is like a God-emperor tier candidate in WV with super high approvals, and I think he throws his weight around for Morrisey A LOT there and allows Manchin to narrowly lose.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin losing while Donnelly and McCaskill win? #analysis

Trump is not approved of enough to hurt Donnelly or McCaskill too badly in their states, but he is like a God-emperor tier candidate in WV with super high approvals, and I think he throws his weight around for Morrisey A LOT there and allows Manchin to narrowly lose.

Fair, but a lot of Trump people love Manchin, especially ancestral Dems in southern WV.

Also fair, if this was not the case, the race would be a Morrisey blowout, which is not and has nearly no chance of occurring.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

IL-17 going Republican?

Oh oopsie, thanks for catching that, sorry it's an error on my end, I'll fix it. Nah, it's a safe D race, my bad.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Here's what I think now



as for the tossups not colored in, if I had to push them firearm to head, I will tilt all of them to dems except for TN. I feel the least confident pushing WV out of those 7 though.

Ps. sorry if you saw ND as safe R, that was a typo, I meant it to be at lean R like it shows now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My friend's map:



If forced to push, he gives the GOP FL, TN, and IN, and dems the rest.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have already made official Bagel projections that the dems and the gop will keep control of these seats over a month out.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have already made official Bagel projections that the dems and the gop will keep control of these seats over a month out.

*sigh*

I'm sorry, do you think that the GOP has a chance in HI, CA, VT, and NY and that the dems have a chance in WY, and UT?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have already made official Bagel projections that the dems and the gop will keep control of these seats over a month out.

*sigh*

I'm sorry, do you think that the GOP has a chance in HI, CA, VT, and NY and that the dems have a chance in WY, and UT?

No, but I don't understand why you're not also projecting the New England states, WA, PA, VA, MS (Wicker race), etc. Only ten states plus the MS special are even remotely competitive at this point.

You see, all of those have at least like a 0.000000000000(keep going)1 chance of flipping, these states that I projected are basically less likely to flip than Jesus appearing in my living room.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

(Prediction for November, not right now)

Only change from early June is flipping IN from Tossup-> lean D and MO from Lean D -> Tossup. Missouri will probably be the tipping point instead. But lol@ people seeing two good polls for Donnelly and thinking the race is over. Heitkamp has also weathered the attacks better than I thought she would (but having her as Likely D (oops) and safer than Tester relied on the misguided assumption that the GOP would actually target him properly).

I’ve been pretty bullish on O’Rourke’s chances for a while but by now I seem to be significantly more optimistic about Cruz’ odds than almost everyone. Weird.

Florida remains Lean D for obvious reasons. Apparently no user on this forum has ever lived through July and August in a midterm year.

Also, cold take; Dems chances at a majority proabably get somewhat worse (or don’t improve) as the GCB (~predictably) widens - the Senate actually being in play at D+10 or higher itself will clearly change the dynamics, since all of the Dems running in red states have a great time when it’s about the candidates themselves, but less so when voters realise control of the Senate is actually at stake.

Like everyone, I’m probably underrating Tennesse. It really is an absolute godsend for the Democratic party this year. But I have no idea where it’s going.

WV not at likely D lol.