useful idiot
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Posts: 3,720
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« on: March 14, 2012, 01:32:45 PM » |
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« edited: March 14, 2012, 01:35:31 PM by useful idiot »
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I don't think Illinois is essential. I get the feeling that April 3 is going to be far more important in the grand scheme of things. If Santorum can't win Wisconsin (assuming that he won't win MD without WI), then he's going to have a hard time sustaining any momentum. Let's say he wins Louisiana on March 24th, then loses WI and MD on the 3rd. That means that between March 24th and May 8th the only two states he has a shot at are PA and DE. That's just disastrous. Even though the May calender looks excellent for him (NC, IN, WV, KY, AR, TX), by that point any moral victory is worthless because the numbers just don't work.
If he wants to boost his numbers in these Romney states (NY, RI, CT, CA) in order to get a significant number of delegates, he has to consistently win, and not having a victory besides your home state between March 24th and May 8th just isn't going to do it.
If Gingrich gets out though, even at this point, I think you'll see Santorum win in IL, WI, and possibly MD. That would probably irreparably harm Romney's guarantee of getting to 1144 because that means he has to get a very large portion of his 600 or so needed delegates out of CA, NY, UT, and CT, which have a combined total of 335. Obviously he can (and probably would) still make it up by solid showings in Santorum states, but it's definitely harder.
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