The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup, 19 April

42% (+1)
52% (-/-)

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Yougov, April 15-18
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/csm5blp5g2/econToplines.pdf


All Adults:
41% (+1)
49% (-1)


RV:
44% (+1)
50% (-2)

[I Won - Get Over It]

^^^

PPP, April 17-18 compared to March 27-28

RV, Approval
43% (+3)
50% (-3)

RV, Favorability
43 (+2)
53 (-/-)

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icitizen, April 17-18 compared to April 10-12.
https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-april-17-18-2017/

All Adults:
34% (-1)
65% (+1)

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup, 20 April

43% (+1)
50% (-2)

I wonder if it is enough for getting 45% in Gallup if Trump just shuts the f%%k up (=no scandals of Obama-tapped-my-phones level).

Trump is truly king of the the low expectations

P.S. It just might be a noise; I know that.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup, 20 April

43% (+1)
50% (-2)

I wonder if it is enough for getting 45% in Gallup if Trump just shuts the f%%k up (=no scandals of Obama-tapped-my-phones level).

Trump is truly king of the the low expectations

P.S. It just might be a noise; I know that.

When he's quiet, he's around 43-45... when he's loud, he's at or below 40.

But if (a big if) he keeps quiet in more than 2-3 weeks we are entering uncharted territory.

[I Won - Get Over It]

^^^^^^^^

Morning Consult national poll, conducted April 13-15 vs April 6-9:

RV
48% (-/-)
45% (-2)

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ARG, April 17-20 vs March 17-20
http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

All Adults:
39 (-2)
56 (+2)

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Gallup

43% (-/-)
51% (+1)

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SurveyMonkey, April 14-20 vs April 7-13
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArRWdXM01kaUpFYzg/view

All Adults:
45% (-/-)
54% (-1)

RV:
46% (-/-)
53% (-/-)

[I Won - Get Over It]

ABC:

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

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Why? Because Dems are out of touch.

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Of course it is just one poll, but...

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Gallup

40% (-2)
54% (+2)

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Today's Gallup

40% (-/-)
54% (-/-)

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Rasmussen

Total, -6:
47% (-4)
53% (+4)

Strongly, -12:
30 (-2)
42 (+3)

EDIT: second...

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Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

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I never heard of "Firehouse Strategies". Are they non-partisan?

[I Won - Get Over It]

Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

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I never heard of "Firehouse Strategies". Are they non-partisan?

Landline only, and thus a distorted sample. Multitudes are dropping or have no longer had landlines.  Many people are 'cell phones only' now. Obsolete technologies tend to better represent older, poorer, and more rural populations.

It's also a 'likely midterm voters' poll. Modeling for likely voters  based upon electorates of the past ten years have tended strongly Republican, which well fits Republican wave elections of 2010 and 2014... and 2016 somewhat well. (2016 would look like a wave result if it hadn;t followed the 2010 midterm election).        

'likely midterm voters' is fine with me, but landline only... It is quite stupid.

It may be that 40 is his mean approval rating, all else being equal, not 43-45. Then this isn't a drop, it's a reversion.

Also, there has been a bit of AHCA chatter lately... and that issue killed him last month.

And fail with "The Wall"

[I Won - Get Over It]

So

Fox News(Registered Voters) April 23-25 compared to March 12-14:
45% (+2)
48% (-3)

CNN  (All adult) April 22-25 compared to March 1-4:
44% (-1)
54% (+2)

CNN  (Registered Voters) April 22-25, first time they present it:
44%
54%

YouGov  (All adult) April 23-25 compared to April 15-18:
42% (+1)
49% (-/-)

YouGov  (Registered Voters) April 23-25 compared to April 15-18:
45% (+1)
49% (-1)

Morning Consult (Registered Voters) April 20-24 compared to April 13-15:
51% (+3)
45% (-/-)

Ipsos  (All adult) April 20-24 compared to April 15-19:
40% (-2)
54% (+1)

Ipsos   (Likely Voters) April 20-24 compared to April 15-19:
43% (-4)
53% (+3)

[I Won - Get Over It]

40% approval probably means that he can get 46% of the binary vote in a re-election bid, at least if the pattern holds for Presidents holds for Senators and Governors based upon approval numbers at the start of the campaign.  The big question is whether he can get approval in the mid-40s, which is about where Barack Obama was in early 2012 and barely winning a majority of the presidential vote. That was Barack Obama facing one of the strongest challengers that an incumbent ever faced.

If Donald Trump is around 40% in his approval rating, then he stands to lose 54-46 without considering third-party nominees. And that's facing a challenger stronger than Hillary Clinton.

According to 538 his approval rating among All Adults is about 41%, but
it is 44% among LV/RV. If the number are about the same in 2020, he has pretty good shot..

[I Won - Get Over It]

Kaiser Health Tracking Poll,  April 17-23 compared to March 28 - April 3

http://files.kff.org/attachment/Topline-Kaiser-Health-Tracking%20Poll-Late-April-2017-The-Future-of-the-ACA-and-Health-Care-and-the-Budget


All adults:
45% (+4)
50% (-5)

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Actually, it looks more like a fluctuation about the mean (of 40-41% for all adults).

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Gallup, All Adults

42% (+1)
54% (-1)


Trump keeps bouncing around 41% (All Adults).

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Ipsos, April 27-May 1  compared to April 22-26

All Adults:
44 (+2)
51 (-2)

LV:
44 (-/-)
52 (-/-)


Yougov, April 29-May 2  compared to April 23-25
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eh981oefng/econToplines.pdf

All Adults:
43 (+1)
47 (-2)

RV:
46 (+1)
47 (-2)


Overall, what grade would you give the men listed below for the first 100 days of their
presidencies?
                               A       B       C     D       F
Donald Trump          17% 22%   18% 13%   30%
Barack Obama         19% 29%   21% 10%   21%
George W. Bush        8%  29%   41% 13%   8%
Ronald Reagan         26% 34%   26%  9%    5%
Franklin Roosevelt    28% 37%    25% 6%    4%

49. If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the
district where you live?
The Democratic Party candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
The Republican Party candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
I would not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%


52. Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people?
                       Very fav   Somewhat fav   Somewhat unfav   Very unfav   Don’t know
Donald Trump       26%            18%                    9%              40%               7%
Mike Pence          24%              17%                  12%               29%             17%
Paul Ryan             8%                22%                20%                30%             20%
Mitch McConnell    5%                17%                17%                28%              32%
Nancy Pelosi         7%               19%                 14%                 37%             23%
Chuck Schumer     6%               18%                 12%                 27%             36%

[I Won - Get Over It]

Morning Consult, April 27-30 compared to April 20-24
https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/03/people-split-states-treat-sickest-americans/
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-cb5a-dc47-a5df-fb5e48000002

RV:
48% (-3)
45% (-/-)

Strongly:
24%
31%

If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for?
(D)      41%
(R)      41%
DK/NO 18%

[I Won - Get Over It]

The next week will be interesting. Will Trump's approval drop under 35% (on average)?

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Ipsos, April 30-May 4  compared to April 27-May 1

All Adults:
43 (-1)
52 (+1)

LV:
46 (+2)
51 (-1)


SurveyMonkey, April 28-May 4  compared to April 21-27
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfeGZWRklVZ3ZtLWM/view

All Adults:
45 (-1)
52 (-/-)

RV:
47 (-/-)
51 (-1)