FL-Gov: Republicans Leads Florida Guberatorial Matchups (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 10, 2024, 05:17:02 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  FL-Gov: Republicans Leads Florida Guberatorial Matchups (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: FL-Gov: Republicans Leads Florida Guberatorial Matchups  (Read 2209 times)
Blank Slate
Rookie
**
Posts: 137


« on: November 30, 2005, 12:15:04 PM »

Strategic Vision is a heavily biased Republican pollster. The far more reliable Ramussen published a poll exactly two weeks ago and had Davis/Gallagher tied and Davis leading Crist by 3%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Florida%20Governor%20Nov%2016.htm

I think the race will be a tossup.

But the fact that in this latest Strategic Vision poll Davis is only behind by 7 to 11 points shows how close this still is, and it's only 11 months before the general of November 2006.   What's amazing to me is the amount of undecideds and the fact that neither Republican is polling above 48% against Davis.   This is reminds me of the polls coming out of Virginia, for the Governor's race, this time last year  (and of course we saw what happened there, didn't we?)
Logged
Blank Slate
Rookie
**
Posts: 137


« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2005, 02:54:22 PM »

OK.  I'll go with Rasmussen (surprise), but I don't think that we should get too cocky about this one yet.  Bush is at the lowest he can possibly get in approvals right now, and that's the factor of why Crist is not faring so well in these polls (other than this one).  I call it for Crist in the end because Bush's approval ratings will eventually rise again; all the undecided partisans (mostly Repubs, right?) will eventually vote party lines and don't poll that way currently because of their weariness of the Bush administration.

I'm not so sure Bush's poll #'s will go back up.  I know he gave that speech in Annapolis, MD, this morning, but at least many political pundits and news analyst are still saying that his speech still left a lot of questions about what is going on and going to happen in Iraq. 

I also still think we, the American public, still hasn't seen the worse of what the economy will do post Katrina and the shortterm Oil crises of early September 2005, I mean there is still the possibility of more of an oil shock because of home oil heating rates rising (the midwest with it's early snow storms might be the first area will this will be evident or not) and also weather forecasters are forecasting a very long, possibly nasty and abundent hurricane season for June to November 2006 -- and that is going to be unforseen (at this time) source in many of these elections in the southeast next year.   
Logged
Blank Slate
Rookie
**
Posts: 137


« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2005, 03:00:32 PM »

As usual, Florida polling caveats apply.

In other words, given a number of different results, there is only one poll that I really trust coming out of Florida, that being Mason-Dixon.

Unfortunately, they haven't polled the state in a while.

However, both Rasmussen and Strategic Vision did extremely well in Florida races in 2004, so depending on your partisan affliation, you can choose to believe whichever poll you want to until we hear from M-D.  (which will settle the matter)  Smiley

I know this might sound, contrite, flippant and naive to write this, but:

NO, the only poll that matters is the one Florida voters will vote in or on on November 7, 2006.
Logged
Blank Slate
Rookie
**
Posts: 137


« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2005, 04:56:24 PM »

It's a shame that there aren't any statewide elected Democrats - bar Nelson - down in Florida

I doubt he would, but could former governor/senator Bob Graham run if he wanted to, or is he constitutionally prohibited?

What about Mary Castor?

Dave

Dave,

I would love for my friend and former Governor and Senator Bob Graham to run again, and I don't think there is a prohibition.  But Graham is currently 68 years old and also recently suffered from heart problems and therefore I don't think he wants to run again for anything.  I think his wife, Adele (who I also met),  would not take to kindly to her husband running for political office again, either.

I also think you mean my former state Senator (I used to live in New Port Richey), former state Education Commissioner and former University of South Florida (my alma mater by the way) president Elizabeth "Betty" Castor (not Mary).  I think that Castor is much happier in her role as head of a political watchdog group then to get into another bruising political battle at this time (I think she is 62 years old, if I'm not mistaken) and she's already sent out her former supporters (me being one of them) this information in e-mail newsletter.   

Peter
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.028 seconds with 10 queries.