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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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Author Topic: Post Random Maps Here 2.0.  (Read 212192 times)
Dr. MB
MB
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 15,916
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya



« Reply #50 on: December 04, 2018, 08:53:04 PM »

So I'll be doing some past presidential election scenarios using Google Trends data.

First off, 2016.



No matter what setting you change it to, the results are the same: Donald Trump trounces Hillary Clinton in a 538-0 landslide. Clinton's best state is Washington, D.C., of course, where she gets 17%. Alaska is Trump's best state, where he gets 93%.

And now, for a rematch of the 2016 Dem primary:



Democrats have firmly rejected the left-wing views of Bernie Sanders, who manages to win only his home state of Vermont as well as, surprisingly, the District of Columbia. Clinton's best state is her former home of Arkansas, where she destroys the septuagenarian socialist with a resounding 79%.

And now, for 2008:


Rising star and Senator Barack Obama just can't beat the popularity of his colleague Hillary Clinton, who easily gains the nomination despite a stronger-than-expected performance by Obama. The Illinois senator's best state was his birthplace of Hawaii, where he got 58% of the vote, and Clinton's best was Wyoming, where she crushed Obama with 74% of the vote, 10 points higher than her second best state (Idaho).

Now, onto the 2008 general.*

*-Using trends from past 90 days

Amidst an unpopular war and an economic recession, Democrat Barack Obama cruises to the White House in a 510-28 victory, the largest landslide in 24 years. Republican John McCain manages only to win his home state of Arizona, his running mate Sarah Palin's home state of Alaska, and the Republican strongholds of Idaho, Wyoming, and Kentucky (which he wins by less than a point).
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Dr. MB
MB
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,916
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya



« Reply #51 on: December 24, 2018, 03:41:50 AM »
« Edited: December 24, 2018, 03:45:15 AM by MB »



2016 presidential election (3rd-party only)

Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (L) 57.3%, 525 EV
Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (G) 18.6%, 0 EV
Evan McMullin/Mindy Finn (I) 9.3%, 10 EV
Darrell Castle/Scott Bradley (C) 2.6%, 0 EV
Bernie Sanders/? (I) 1.4%, 3 EV




2012

Gary Johnson/James Gray (L) 57.1%, 512 EV
Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala (G) 21.0%, 19 EV
Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer (C) 5.5%, 0 EV
No votes: 0.0%, 7 EV



2008

Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez (I) 39.6%, 421 EV
Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root (L) 28.0%, 93 EV
Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle (C) 10.7%, 5 EV
Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente (G) 8.7%, 0 EV
Alan Keyes/Wiley S. Drake (I) 2.6%, 0 EV
Ron Paul/Michael Peroutka (I) 2.5%, 12 EV
No votes: 0.0%, 7 EV
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Dr. MB
MB
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,916
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya



« Reply #52 on: December 24, 2018, 02:08:18 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2018, 02:19:35 PM by MB »



2004

Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo (I) 38.0%, 327 EV
Michael Badnarik/Richard Campagna (L) 32.4%, 200 EV
Michael Peroutka/Chuck Baldwin (C) 11.7%, 0 EV
David Cobb/Pat LaMarche (G) 9.7%, 4 EV
No votes: 0.0%, 7 EV



2000

Ralph Nader/Winona LaDuke (G) 72.7%, 500 EV
Pat Buchanan/Ezola Foster (Ref) 11.3%, 25 EV
Harry Browne/Art Olivier (L) 9.7%, 13 EV



1996

Ross Perot/Patrick Choate (Ref) 83.5%, 535 EV
Ralph Nader/Winona LaDuke (G) 7.0%, 3 EV
Harry Browne/Jo Jorgensen (L) 5.0%, 0 EV
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Dr. MB
MB
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,916
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya



« Reply #53 on: January 22, 2019, 10:24:35 PM »

1992:

Andre Marrou/Nancy Lord (Libertarian): 43.6%, 419 EV
Bo Gritz/Cy Minett (Populist): 16.1%, 40 EV
Lenora Fulani/Maria Munoz (New Alliance): 11.1%, 17 EV
Howard Phillips/Albion Knight (Taxpayers): 6.5%, 6 EV
John Hagelin/Mike Tompkins (Natural Law): 5.8%, 7 EV
Ron Daniels/Asiba Tupahache (Peace and Freedom): 4.2%, 0 EV
Lyndon LaRouche/James Bevel (Economic Recovery): 4.0%, 16 EV
James Warren/Estelle DeBates (Socialist Workers): 3.5%, 33 EV
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Dr. MB
MB
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,916
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya



« Reply #54 on: January 24, 2019, 03:42:36 PM »

1992:

Andre Marrou/Nancy Lord (Libertarian): 43.6%, 419 EV
Bo Gritz/Cy Minett (Populist): 16.1%, 40 EV
Lenora Fulani/Maria Munoz (New Alliance): 11.1%, 17 EV
Howard Phillips/Albion Knight (Taxpayers): 6.5%, 6 EV
John Hagelin/Mike Tompkins (Natural Law): 5.8%, 7 EV
Ron Daniels/Asiba Tupahache (Peace and Freedom): 4.2%, 0 EV
Lyndon LaRouche/James Bevel (Economic Recovery): 4.0%, 16 EV
James Warren/Estelle DeBates (Socialist Workers): 3.5%, 33 EV
what's the methodology here?
I just took out all the major party (Clinton/Dole/Perot votes) and calculated the %s of what was left.
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